Online public opinion prediction based on a novel conformable fractional discrete grey model DOI Creative Commons
Feng Feng, Xiaoxiao Ge, Stefania Tomasiello

et al.

Kybernetes, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 53(13), P. 72 - 100

Published: Nov. 27, 2024

Purpose As social networks have developed to be a ubiquitous platform of public opinion spreading, it becomes more and crucial for maintaining security stability by accurately predicting various trends dissemination in networks. Considering the fact that online is dynamic process full uncertainty complexity, this study establishes novel conformable fractional discrete grey model with linear time-varying parameters, namely CFTDGM(1,1) model, accurate prediction trends. Design/methodology/approach First, accumulation difference operators are employed build enhancing traditional integer-order parameters. Then, improve forecasting accuracy, base value correction term introduced optimize iterative model. Next, differential evolution algorithm selected determine optimal order proposed through comparison whale optimization particle swarm algorithm. The least squares method utilized estimate parameter values In addition, effectiveness tested event about “IG team winning championship”. Finally, we conduct empirical analysis on two hot events regarding “Chengdu toddler mauled Rottweiler” “Mayday band suspected lip-syncing,” further assess ability applicability seven other existing models. Findings test case recent reveal outperforms most models terms performance. Therefore, chosen forecast development these events. results indicate attention both will decline slowly over next three days. Originality/value A help has higher accuracy feasibility trend prediction.

Language: Английский

A conformable fractional-order grey Bernoulli model with optimized parameters and its application in forecasting Chongqing’s energy consumption DOI
Wenqing Wu, Xin Ma, Bo Zeng

et al.

Expert Systems with Applications, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 255, P. 124534 - 124534

Published: June 25, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

4
Prediction of seasonal variation pollutant sequence based on binomial coupled nonlinear grey Bernoulli model DOI
Shuai Huang, Lihua Ning, Jiayi An

et al.

Grey Systems Theory and Application, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: April 9, 2025

Purpose The traditional grey Bernoulli model often faces limitations when applied to pollutant concentration series, which may exhibit complex seasonal trends and varying data types. To address these challenges, we propose a structural extension of the by integrating binomial equation. This allows for more flexible framework suitable diverse datasets, especially those related environmental pollution. Design/methodology/approach First, time series is decomposed into four relatively stable sub-sequences. Binomial nonlinear models are then integrated predict prediction formula proposed derived directly from definition equation rather than solutions differential equation, thereby minimizing systematic errors. particle swarm optimization algorithm used estimate parameters, while least squares method linear parameters model. Findings BNGBM(1,1) forecast air quality index (AQI), sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) particulate matter (PM2.5) seven major regions in China. results show that has superior accuracy compared competing models. predicts variations three pollution indicators selected period 2023–2024. concentrations all indices will decrease at different rates. Originality/value well suited sequences exhibiting quasi-exponential growth, whereas polynomial appropriate characterized saturated growth. integration two extends their applicability. In empirical study, despite development China, forecasting demonstrates effective performance indicators.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Conformable fractional accumulation in triangular fuzzy sequences grey nonlinear model for tertiary industry gross output forecast DOI
Zhenxiu Cao, Xiangyan Zeng, Fangli He

et al.

Applied Mathematical Modelling, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 136, P. 115638 - 115638

Published: Aug. 14, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

1
An innovative fractional grey system model and its application DOI
Wen-Ze Wu,

Jie Xu,

Wanli Xie

et al.

Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 230, P. 68 - 79

Published: Nov. 10, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Online public opinion prediction based on a novel conformable fractional discrete grey model DOI Creative Commons
Feng Feng, Xiaoxiao Ge, Stefania Tomasiello

et al.

Kybernetes, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 53(13), P. 72 - 100

Published: Nov. 27, 2024

Purpose As social networks have developed to be a ubiquitous platform of public opinion spreading, it becomes more and crucial for maintaining security stability by accurately predicting various trends dissemination in networks. Considering the fact that online is dynamic process full uncertainty complexity, this study establishes novel conformable fractional discrete grey model with linear time-varying parameters, namely CFTDGM(1,1) model, accurate prediction trends. Design/methodology/approach First, accumulation difference operators are employed build enhancing traditional integer-order parameters. Then, improve forecasting accuracy, base value correction term introduced optimize iterative model. Next, differential evolution algorithm selected determine optimal order proposed through comparison whale optimization particle swarm algorithm. The least squares method utilized estimate parameter values In addition, effectiveness tested event about “IG team winning championship”. Finally, we conduct empirical analysis on two hot events regarding “Chengdu toddler mauled Rottweiler” “Mayday band suspected lip-syncing,” further assess ability applicability seven other existing models. Findings test case recent reveal outperforms most models terms performance. Therefore, chosen forecast development these events. results indicate attention both will decline slowly over next three days. Originality/value A help has higher accuracy feasibility trend prediction.

Language: Английский

Citations

0