Acta Geophysica, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown
Published: Nov. 20, 2024
Language: Английский
International Journal of Climatology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 44(11), P. 3726 - 3741
Published: July 3, 2024
Abstract The objective of this work is to provide projections mean annual and monthly precipitation for the Brazilian Amazon Cerrado biomes, in near‐term (2021–2040), medium‐term (2041–2060) long‐term (2081–2100). intermediate most pessimistic Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) greenhouse gas emissions scenarios were considered. Thus, 34 high‐resolution global climate models (GCMs) from NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX‐GDDP) Phase 6 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) evaluated. base period evaluated was 1981 2010. NEX‐GDDP simulations are bias‐corrected spatially disaggregated. Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station v2.0 chosen as source observed data due low availability situ data. Kling‐Gupta efficiency (KGE) performance indicator implemented Google Engine evaluate GCMs. results show that GCMs perform satisfactorily, except KACE‐1‐0‐G IITM‐ESM. median KGE 0.86 biomes. Ensemble 32 (EM‐32) indicates a reduction northern Cerrado. In scenario, changes range 3% −33% until end century. north‐central northwestern affected regions. general, precipitations between September November intense decreasing rates. It estimated 91% 23% areas respectively, robust signs precipitation. EM‐32 shows more projections, comparison total subset 33 raw CMIP6 Working I IPCC Sixth Assessment Report. Therefore, can be applied future hydrological hydrosedimentological investigations.
Language: Английский
Citations
1
Land, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 12(9), P. 1770 - 1770
Published: Sept. 13, 2023
Land is an important resource that supports the production, life, and ecological development of human society. The current research on production–living–ecological space (PLES) mainly focusing identification single dominant functions land space, comprehensive spatial function measurement index PLES (PLESI) less known in effective quantitative evaluation multifunctionality different use categories. Integrating CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6) scenario data future simulation model (FLUS), this took upper reaches Hanjiang River (URHR) as example to explore temporal variations use, PLES, PLESIs during 2000–2020, SSP2-4.5 SSP5-8.5 scenarios from 2021 2100. findings were follows: (1) Forest most widely distributed type land; correspondingly, has widest distribution area followed by production space. (2) dry building increased between 2000 2010, accompanied increase living From 2010 2020, growth rate tended slow down while forest increased, conflict eased. (3) transfer projected intensify under scenario, it occur grassland scenario. As for changes a greater impact than Spatially, several sub-basins northern URHR are main areas change. (4) PLESI presents significant downward trend 2020 trending upward slightly Combining climate simulation, would support utilization regional resources ecosystem management decision-making.
Language: Английский
Citations
1
Research Square (Research Square), Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown
Published: Feb. 21, 2024
Abstract This study examines the impact of enhanced horizontal resolution on simulating mean and precipitation extremes in major river basins southern Africa. Seven global climate models (GCMs) from High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) within Coupled Phase 6 (CMIP6) are employed. The available at both high-resolution (HR) low-resolution (LR) resolutions. Three datasets used to assess for period 1983-2014 during December-January-February. distributions daily HR nearly identical those their LR counterparts. However, bias intense is not uniform across three observations. Most reasonably simulate precipitation, maximum consecutive dry days (CDD), number rainy (RR1), albeit with some biases. Improvements due realised CDD, RR1 as noted high spatial correlation coefficients (SCCs), low root square errors, CMIP6 HighResMIP tend overestimate very extreme wet (R95p R99p), one-day (Rx1day), simple intensity (SDII) a pronounced R95p R99p. outperform counterparts R95p, R99p, SDII. Our results indicate that under either improvements (e.g., increased SCC) or deterioration decreased SCC), depending extremes, basin, model. findings this important scientists policymakers.
Language: Английский
Citations
0
Published: March 21, 2024
Abstract. Droughts are often long lasting phenomena, without a distinct start or end, and with impacts cascading across sectors systems, creating long-term legacies. Nevertheless, our current perception management of droughts their is event-based, which can limit the effective assessment drought risks reduction impacts. Here, we advocate for changing this perspective viewing as hydro-eco-social continuum. We take systems theory focus on how “memory” causes feedback interactions between parts interconnected at different time scales. first discuss characteristics continuum hydrological, ecological, social separately; then study system systems. Our analysis based review literature five cases: Chile, Colorado River Basin in US, Northeast Brazil, Kenya, Rhine Northwest Europe. find that memories past dry wet periods, carried by both bio-physical (e.g. groundwater, vegetation) people, governance), influence future risk manifests. identify four archetypes dynamics: Impact & recovery; Slow resilience-building; Gradual collapse; High resilience, big shock. The ecological result shifting these types, plays out differently case studies. call more research pre-conditions recovery dynamics triggering changes, dynamic vulnerability maladaptation. Additionally, argue continuous monitoring hazards impacts, modelling tools better incorporate adaptation responses, strategies increase institutional memory to deal complex pathways adaptation.
Language: Английский
Citations
0
Published: April 8, 2024
Abstract. Droughts are often long lasting phenomena, without a distinct start or end, and with impacts cascading across sectors systems, creating long-term legacies. Nevertheless, our current perception management of droughts their is event-based, which can limit the effective assessment drought risks reduction impacts. Here, we advocate for changing this perspective viewing as hydro-eco-social continuum. We take systems theory focus on how “memory” causes feedback interactions between parts interconnected at different time scales. first discuss characteristics continuum hydrological, ecological, social separately; then study system systems. Our analysis based review literature five cases: Chile, Colorado River Basin in US, Northeast Brazil, Kenya, Rhine Northwest Europe. find that memories past dry wet periods, carried by both bio-physical (e.g. groundwater, vegetation) people, governance), influence future risk manifests. identify four archetypes dynamics: Impact & recovery; Slow resilience-building; Gradual collapse; High resilience, big shock. The ecological result shifting these types, plays out differently case studies. call more research pre-conditions recovery dynamics triggering changes, dynamic vulnerability maladaptation. Additionally, argue continuous monitoring hazards impacts, modelling tools better incorporate adaptation responses, strategies increase institutional memory to deal complex pathways adaptation.
Language: Английский
Citations
0
Published: June 13, 2024
Abstract. Droughts are often long lasting phenomena, without a distinct start or end, and with impacts cascading across sectors systems, creating long-term legacies. Nevertheless, our current perception management of droughts their is event-based, which can limit the effective assessment drought risks reduction impacts. Here, we advocate for changing this perspective viewing as hydro-eco-social continuum. We take systems theory focus on how “memory” causes feedback interactions between parts interconnected at different time scales. first discuss characteristics continuum hydrological, ecological, social separately; then study system systems. Our analysis based review literature five cases: Chile, Colorado River Basin in US, Northeast Brazil, Kenya, Rhine Northwest Europe. find that memories past dry wet periods, carried by both bio-physical (e.g. groundwater, vegetation) people, governance), influence future risk manifests. identify four archetypes dynamics: Impact & recovery; Slow resilience-building; Gradual collapse; High resilience, big shock. The ecological result shifting these types, plays out differently case studies. call more research pre-conditions recovery dynamics triggering changes, dynamic vulnerability maladaptation. Additionally, argue continuous monitoring hazards impacts, modelling tools better incorporate adaptation responses, strategies increase institutional memory to deal complex pathways adaptation.
Language: Английский
Citations
0
Published: June 13, 2024
Abstract. Droughts are often long lasting phenomena, without a distinct start or end, and with impacts cascading across sectors systems, creating long-term legacies. Nevertheless, our current perception management of droughts their is event-based, which can limit the effective assessment drought risks reduction impacts. Here, we advocate for changing this perspective viewing as hydro-eco-social continuum. We take systems theory focus on how “memory” causes feedback interactions between parts interconnected at different time scales. first discuss characteristics continuum hydrological, ecological, social separately; then study system systems. Our analysis based review literature five cases: Chile, Colorado River Basin in US, Northeast Brazil, Kenya, Rhine Northwest Europe. find that memories past dry wet periods, carried by both bio-physical (e.g. groundwater, vegetation) people, governance), influence future risk manifests. identify four archetypes dynamics: Impact & recovery; Slow resilience-building; Gradual collapse; High resilience, big shock. The ecological result shifting these types, plays out differently case studies. call more research pre-conditions recovery dynamics triggering changes, dynamic vulnerability maladaptation. Additionally, argue continuous monitoring hazards impacts, modelling tools better incorporate adaptation responses, strategies increase institutional memory to deal complex pathways adaptation.
Language: Английский
Citations
0
Published: June 13, 2024
Abstract. Droughts are often long lasting phenomena, without a distinct start or end, and with impacts cascading across sectors systems, creating long-term legacies. Nevertheless, our current perception management of droughts their is event-based, which can limit the effective assessment drought risks reduction impacts. Here, we advocate for changing this perspective viewing as hydro-eco-social continuum. We take systems theory focus on how “memory” causes feedback interactions between parts interconnected at different time scales. first discuss characteristics continuum hydrological, ecological, social separately; then study system systems. Our analysis based review literature five cases: Chile, Colorado River Basin in US, Northeast Brazil, Kenya, Rhine Northwest Europe. find that memories past dry wet periods, carried by both bio-physical (e.g. groundwater, vegetation) people, governance), influence future risk manifests. identify four archetypes dynamics: Impact & recovery; Slow resilience-building; Gradual collapse; High resilience, big shock. The ecological result shifting these types, plays out differently case studies. call more research pre-conditions recovery dynamics triggering changes, dynamic vulnerability maladaptation. Additionally, argue continuous monitoring hazards impacts, modelling tools better incorporate adaptation responses, strategies increase institutional memory to deal complex pathways adaptation.
Language: Английский
Citations
0
Elsevier eBooks, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 29 - 61
Published: Oct. 11, 2024
Language: Английский
Citations
0
Journal of Arid Land, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 16(11), P. 1505 - 1521
Published: Nov. 1, 2024
Language: Английский
Citations
0