Abstract.
Permafrost
thawing
as
a
result
of
climate
change
has
major
consequences
locally
and
globally
for
the
biosphere
well
human
activities.
The
quantification
its
extent
dynamics
under
different
scenarios
is
needed
to
design
local
adaptation
mitigation
measures
better
understand
permafrost
feedbacks.
To
this
end,
numerical
simulation
can
be
used
explore
response
soil
thermo-hydric
regimes
changes
in
climatic
conditions.
Mechanistic
approaches
minimize
modelling
assumptions
by
relying
on
resolution
continuum
mechanics
equations,
but
involve
significant
computational
effort.
In
work,
permaFoam
solver
along
with
high-performance
computing
resources
assess
impact
four
Coupled
Model
Intercomparison
Project
–
Phase
6
(CMIP6)
within
pristine,
forest-dominated
watershed
continuous
zone.
Using
these
century
time-scale
simulations,
temperature,
moisture,
active
layer
thickness
water
fluxes
are
quantified,
assuming
no
vegetation
cover.
most
severe
scenario
(SSP5-8.5)
suggests
dramatic
increase
both
annual
evapotranspiration,
maximum
values
reached
2100
+46
%
+29
respectively.
For
thickness,
current
conditions
it
would
correspond
560
km
southward
shift.
Moreover,
thermal
equilibrium
near-surface
new
not
2100,
suggesting
further
even
case
halting
change.
Permafrost and Periglacial Processes,
Journal Year:
2024,
Volume and Issue:
35(3), P. 412 - 422
Published: March 25, 2024
ABSTRACT
The
Qinghai‐Tibet
Plateau
(QTP)
is
the
largest
permafrost
region
in
world
at
low
and
middle
latitudes
high
elevation.
Permafrost
being
degraded
on
QTP
due
to
global
warming,
which
has
a
significant
effect
regional
climate,
hydrological,
ecological
processes.
This
paper
provides
summary
of
recent
progress
methods
used
research,
distribution,
basic
data
relevant
research
QTP.
area
was
1.32
×
10
6
km
2
over
QTP,
accounts
for
approximately
46%
Moreover,
simulation
studies
hydrothermal
process
change
were
reviewed
evaluated
degradation
hydrological
results
revealed
that
effects
runoff
closely
related
soil
temperature,
carbon
cycle
requires
further
study.
Finally,
current
challenges
processes
discussed,
emphasizing
under
climate
slow
non‐linear
process.
review
will
aid
future
examining
mechanism
underlying
interaction
between
change,
environmental
protection
regions
The cryosphere,
Journal Year:
2025,
Volume and Issue:
19(4), P. 1539 - 1558
Published: April 14, 2025
Abstract.
The
precise
magnitude
and
timing
of
permafrost-thaw-related
emissions
their
subsequent
impact
on
the
global
climate
system
remain
highly
uncertain.
This
uncertainty
stems
from
complex
quantification
rate
extent
permafrost
thaw,
which
is
influenced
by
factors
such
as
snow
cover
other
surface
properties.
Acting
a
thermal
insulator,
directly
influences
energy
fluxes
can
significantly
regime.
However,
current
Earth
models
often
inadequately
represent
nuanced
effects
in
regions,
leading
to
inaccuracies
simulating
soil
temperatures
dynamics.
Notably,
Community
Land
Model
(CLM5.0)
tends
overestimate
snowpack
conductivity
over
resulting
an
underestimation
insulating
capacity.
Using
scheme
better
adapted
for
typically
found
we
seek
resolve
insulation
assess
influence
simulated
Evaluation
using
two
Arctic-wide
temperature
observation
datasets
reveals
that
new
reduces
cold-soil
bias
(root-mean-square
error,
RMSE
=
3.17
2.4
°C,
remote
sensing
data;
3.9
2.19
situ
data),
demonstrates
robustness
through
sensitivity
analysis
under
lower
tundra
densities,
addresses
overestimation
default
CLM5.0.
improvement
highlights
importance
incorporating
realistic
processes
land
enhanced
predictions
dynamics
response
change.
Permafrost and Periglacial Processes,
Journal Year:
2024,
Volume and Issue:
35(2), P. 143 - 156
Published: Feb. 28, 2024
Abstract
Permafrost
degradation
on
the
Qinghai–Tibet
Plateau
(QTP)
has
significant
impacts
climate,
hydrology,
and
engineering
environmental
systems.
To
understand
temporal
spatial
characteristics
of
permafrost
QTP,
we
quantified
variation
in
active
layer
thickness
(ALT),
thermal
state,
future
change
under
different
scenarios
using
observational
data,
reanalysis
numerical
model.
Generally,
ALT
ranged
from
0.5
to
6.0
m
with
an
average
2.39
m,
mean
annual
ground
temperature
(at
a
depth
zero
amplitude
for
temperature)
mainly
between
0
−3°C
−0.85°C.
The
soil
temperatures
layers
based
ERA5‐Land
data
revealed
even
stronger
increasing
trends,
example,
0.245,
0.244,
0.238°C/decade
at
depths
0–7,
7–28,
28–100,
100–289
cm
1980
2021,
compared
those
during
period
1960
which
were
0.153,
0.156,
0.155,
0.149°C/decade,
respectively.
warming
trends
0.153
0.243°C/decade
2021
rate
thickening
among
10
observation
sites
was
2.84
cm/year.
There
trend
above
~15
0.063
0.120,
0.026
0.182,
0.101
0.314,
0.189
0.303°C/decade
QTB01,
QTB06,
QTB08,
XDTGT
sites,
respectively,
yearly
minimum
exhibited
than
maximum
temperatures.
In
addition,
simulation
increases
Xidatan
(XDT)
Tanggula
(TGL)
both
historical
Representative
Concentration
Pathway
(RCP)
scenarios,
but
significantly
greater
TGL
XDT.
These
findings
provide
important
information
understanding
variability
processes
improving
simulations
climate
QTP.
Permafrost and Periglacial Processes,
Journal Year:
2025,
Volume and Issue:
unknown
Published: Feb. 20, 2025
ABSTRACT
Permafrost
is
undergoing
rapid
changes
due
to
climate
warming,
potentially
exposing
a
vast
reservoir
of
carbon
be
released
the
atmosphere,
causing
positive
feedback
cycle.
Despite
importance
this
feedback,
its
specifics
remain
poorly
constrained,
because
representing
permafrost
dynamics
still
poses
significant
challenge
for
Earth
System
Models
(ESMs).
This
review
assesses
current
state
representation
in
land
surface
models
(LSMs)
used
ESMs
and
offline
models,
highlighting
both
progress
made
remaining
gaps.
We
identify
several
key
physical
processes
crucial
dynamics,
including
soil
thermal
regimes,
freeze–thaw
cycles,
hydrology,
which
are
underrepresented
many
models.
While
some
LSMs
have
advanced
significantly
incorporating
these
processes,
others
lack
fundamental
elements
such
as
latent
heat
freeze–thaw,
deep
columns,
Arctic
vegetation
dynamics.
Offline
provide
valuable
insights,
offering
detailed
process
testing
aiding
prioritization
improvements
coupled
LSMs.
Our
analysis
reveals
that
while
has
been
permafrost‐related
into
LSMs,
small‐scale
underrepresented.
particularly
important
capturing
complex
interactions
between
biogeochemical
required
model
recommend
leveraging
advancements
from
progressively
integrating
them
recognizing
computational
technical
challenges
may
arise
simulations.
highlight
enhancing
through
resolution
complexity,
precursor
accurately
incorporate
capture
feedback.
European Journal of Soil Science,
Journal Year:
2025,
Volume and Issue:
76(3)
Published: April 29, 2025
ABSTRACT
Soil
water
retention
curve
(SWRC)
and
thermal
conductivity
(TCC)
are
crucial
soil
properties
affecting
flow
plant
growth
in
soils.
This
study
investigated
simultaneous
SWRC
TCC
parameter
estimation
using
an
inverse
solution
approach.
Water
heat
movement
were
modelled
two
column
experiments,
including
infiltration
with
warm
(IWW)
evaporation
pulse
(EHP),
the
HYDRUS‐1D
package.
For
IWW
experiment,
scenarios
considered,
each
based
on
a
selection
of
parameters
for
solution.
EHP
13
developed
by
varying
combinations
pulses
suction
sensors
as
inputs.
Unique
solutions
obtained
first
IWW,
fifth
EHP,
12th
scenarios.
The
scenario
estimated
(empirical
shape
parameters,
α
n
)
three
function,
b
1
,
2
3
temperature
profile
cumulative
five
(saturated
[
θ
s
]
residual
r
content,
saturated
hydraulic
K
(
four
tensiometers
data
input
to
model.
results
showed
both
experiments
could
estimate
TCC,
estimating
up
eight
compared
IWW.
(two
tensiometers)
provided
unique
less
data,
offering
more
convenient
approach,
though
slightly
wider
bounds
parameters.
