Impact of Climate Change on the Winter Wheat Productivity Under Varying Climate Scenarios in the Loess Plateau: An APSIM Analysis (1961–2100)

Agronomy, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 14(11), P. 2609 - 2609

Published: Nov. 5, 2024

Consideration of crop yield variability caused by long-term climate change offers a way to quantify the interplay between change, growth, and yield. This study employed APSIM model simulate potential winter wheat under varying scenarios in 1961–2100 Loess Plateau. It also evaluated response adaptation differences change. The results show that there is slight downward trend inter-annual precipitation during growth period, with reduction −2.38 mm·decade−1 S245 scenario (abbreviated SSP2-4.5) −2.74 S585 SSP5-8.5). Interestingly, actual was positively correlated period but not temperature. By contrast, climatic exhibits significant correlation both factors, suggesting future will largely depend on its sensitivity In addition, may marginally improve stability, although regional variations are evident. Notably, yields water-restricted areas, such as Qinghai Gansu, significantly influenced precipitation. provides an important reference for formulating strategies enhance resilience agricultural production against

Language: Английский

Toward crop–livestock integration: a comprehensive framework for cropping system adaptation assessment to mitigate forage shortage

Environment Development and Sustainability, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Dec. 23, 2024

Language: Английский