Waves and variants of SARS-CoV-2: understanding the causes and effect of the COVID-19 catastrophe

Infection, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 50(2), P. 309 - 325

Published: Dec. 16, 2021

Language: Английский

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Deep learning via LSTM models for COVID-19 infection forecasting in India

PLoS ONE, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 17(1), P. e0262708 - e0262708

Published: Jan. 28, 2022

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to have major impact health and medical infrastructure, economy, agriculture. Prominent computational mathematical models been unreliable due the complexity of spread infections. Moreover, lack data collection reporting makes modelling attempts difficult unreliable. Hence, we need re-look at situation with reliable sources innovative forecasting models. Deep learning such as recurrent neural networks are well suited for spatiotemporal sequences. In this paper, apply long short term memory (LSTM), bidirectional LSTM, encoder-decoder LSTM multi-step (short-term) infection forecasting. We select Indian states hotpots capture first (2020) second (2021) wave infections provide two months ahead forecast. Our model predicts that likelihood another in October November 2021 is low; however, authorities be vigilant given emerging variants virus. accuracy predictions motivate application method other countries regions. Nevertheless, challenges remain reliability difficulties capturing factors population density, logistics, social aspects culture lifestyle.

Language: Английский

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Implications of the second wave of COVID-19 in India

The Lancet Respiratory Medicine, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 9(9), P. e93 - e94

Published: June 30, 2021

The second wave of COVID-19 in India has had severe consequences the form spiralling cases, reduced supplies essential treatments, and increased deaths particularly young population. Understanding why been more dangerous than first could help to identify potential areas diagnostics target with future control strategies. Studies have identified various circulating double-mutant triple-mutant strains SARS-CoV-2 across different regions India, which are pathogenic initial strains. Such altered transmissibility pathogenicity indicates evolution virus. larger population density, higher chances viral replication, mutation, evolution, as suggested by Moya colleagues.1Moya A Holmes EC González-Candelas F genetics evolutionary epidemiology RNA viruses.Nat Rev Microbiol. 2004; 2: 279-288Crossref PubMed Scopus (307) Google Scholar India's overpopulation poor execution a coherent containment strategy policies allowed substantial number mutations persist environment. earlier discovered variants other countries, such B.1.351, B.1.1.7, P.1, reported Boehm colleagues,2Boehm E Kronig I Neher RA Eckerle Vetter P Kaiser L Novel variants: pandemics within pandemic.Clin Microbiol Infect. 2021; (published online May 17.)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cmi.2021.05.022Summary Full Text PDF (246) also along new variants. strain B.1.617, possessing key structural Glu484Gln Leu452Arg spike protein, is highly infectious less affected current vaccine responses, central cause surge India.3Cherian S Potdar V Jadhav et al.Convergent mutations, L452R, E484Q P681R, Maharashtra, India.bioRxiv. 3.) (preprint).https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.04.22.440932Google Similarly, Sahoo colleagues4Sahoo JP Mishra AP Samal KC Triple mutant Bengal (B.1.618) coronavirus worst COVID outbreak India.https://bioticainternational.com/ojs/index.php/biorestoday/article/view/837Date: April 27, 2021Date accessed: June 15, 2021Google presence strain, B.1.618, carrying potent Glu154Lys, Pro681Arg, Gln1071His addition others, that strongly associated deteriorating situation. During many cases mucormycosis, known black fungus, patients diabetes COVID-19, well who were recovering from infection. excessive use steroids treatment immunosuppression virus led emergence this opportunistic fungal infection.5Dyer O Covid-19: sees record "black fungus" spreads fear.BMJ. 373n1238Crossref (33) Although fungus during wave, become prominent cities leading state governments declare too an epidemic. As 7, 2021, Indian Ministry Health recorded 28 252 fungus. risk white Aspergillosis—assumed be even fatal fungus—is on rise some parts India.6Sahoo Panda B unseen "fungal infections"—an extra thrust aggravating India.https://bioticainternational.com/ojs/index.php/biorestoday/article/view/877Date: 24, Patients infected predominantly older 60 years those comorbid conditions at death. However, surprisingly, younger adults appear prone infection latest cycle died age, including aged between 25 50 years.7Jain VK Iyengar KP Vaishya R Differences India.Diabetes Metab Syndr. 15: 1047-1048Crossref (96) reason now vulnerable not apparent beyond scientific explanations. important observation situation develops every individual appeared equal being virus, but ability sustain overcome was variable among individuals. Some people presumed suboptimal immune responses survive, individuals, despite having stronger immunity, rapid further peak sudden decrease oxygen saturation patients, when they well, giving time for proper ventilation support. This created fear panic family members there uncertainty around whether would survive showing signs recovery. No answers available individuals respond differently Many reasons behind observation. One explanation infect simultaneously, others. air quality index factor spread country. Comunian colleagues increase fine particulate matter (<2·5 μm) infection.8Comunian Dongo D Milani C Palestini Air pollution COVID-19: role COVID-19's morbidity mortality.Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020; 174487Crossref (305) Given nine 15 most polluted globally it postulated fight against impaired because people's lungs severely pollution. individuals; someone appears healthy might strong or enough response regard immunity. absence studies limits our reasoning hypothesis. crucial increasing these effects cytokine storms. Therefore, we propose that, focusing research drugs vaccines pandemic situation, prediction models will understanding specific developing storm. By monitoring probable outcomes based recovery possibilities save millions worldwide providing better-prioritised treatment. Identification immune-based markers (eg, numbers T-cells their subsets, B-cells, natural killer cells, protein interleukins 6 10, ferritin, C-reactive procalcitonin) prejudge possibility focused patients. These linked mild forms such, assessing variations expression levels indicators disease prognosis severity provide robust method protect personalised diagnostics. SSS reports grants Clifford Craig Foundation Launceston General Hospital personal fees Chiesi, outside submitted work. PA, MSE, MIH no competing interests. contributed equally

Language: Английский

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Fragility and challenges of health systems in pandemic: lessons from India's second wave of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Global Health Journal, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 6(1), P. 44 - 49

Published: Jan. 19, 2022

The unprecedented healthcare demand due to sudden outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has almost collapsed the health care systems especially in developing world. Given disastrous COVID-19 second wave India, system country was virtually at brink collapse. Therefore, identify factors that resulted into breakdown and challenges, Indian faced during pandemic, this paper analysed challenges India way forward accordance with six building blocks world organization (WHO). Applying integrated review approach, we found such as poor infrastructure, inadequate financing, lack transparency management overstretching India. Although these from very beginning, but early lessons first should have been capitalized avert much deeper crisis pandemic. To sum-up given likely future while be prioritized adequate strong capacity-building measures integration public private sectors Likewise fiscal stimulus, risk assessment, data availability human resources chain are other key strengthened for mitigating country.

Language: Английский

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Soft HRM bundles: a potential toolkit for future crisis management

International journal of organizational analysis, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 32(9), P. 2093 - 2115

Published: Jan. 9, 2024

Purpose The purpose of this paper spans twofold. Firstly, to investigate Human Resource Management practices (HRMP) adopted by organisations during the pandemic. Secondly, bundle similar HRMP into (HRM) bundles that provided unhindered organisational support employees crisis. Design/methodology/approach authors conducted 39 in-depth interviews across industries using a semi-structured interview schedule. Thereafter, transcribed verbatim and analysed them thematically MAXQDA 2021. Findings study identifies effective times uncertainty how soft HRM helped survive When bundled together, these enabled continue operations pandemic, keeping their engaged motivated. Practical implications Based on learnings from COVID-19 provides toolkit can adopt for future crisis management, enhancing organisations’ absorptive capacity. Originality/value investigates incorporated COVID-19, leading identification bundles. adds value existing domain including unique set have not been discussed in earlier studies could be high utility

Language: Английский

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Second wave of COVID-19: emergency situation in India

Journal of Travel Medicine, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 28(7)

Published: May 21, 2021

The COVID-19 pandemic has so far infected 25 385 043 people and taken 280 683 lives (18 May 2021). Several infectious variants are circulating in the country, including B.1.1.7, B.1.351, B.1.617 B.1.618. Preventive strategies may include a large-scale testing, tracing, treatment approach, imposing Indian Penal Code 144 or lockdown hotspot areas mass vaccination.

Language: Английский

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Elucidating causes of COVID-19 infection and related deaths after vaccination

Diabetes & Metabolic Syndrome Clinical Research & Reviews, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 15(5), P. 102212 - 102212

Published: July 15, 2021

Language: Английский

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Differentials in the characteristics of COVID-19 cases in Wave-1 and Wave-2 admitted to a network of hospitals in North India

medRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: June 27, 2021

ABSTRACT Second wave of COVID-19 pandemic in India came with unexpected quick speed and intensity, creating an acute shortage beds, ventilators, oxygen at the peak occurrence. This may have been partly caused by emergence new variant delta. Clinical experience cases admitted to hospitals suggested that it is not merely a steep rise but also possibly case-profile different. study was taken up investigate differentials characteristics second versus those first wave. Records total 14398 (2020) our network north 5454 (2021) were retrieved, making largest this kind India. Their demographic profile, clinical features, management, outcome studied. Age-sex distribution much different from patients comorbidities greater severity had larger share. Level inflammatory markers more adverse. More needed invasive ventilation. ICU admission rate remained nearly same. On positive side, readmissions lower, duration hospitalization slightly less. Usage drugs like remdesivir IVIG higher while favipiravir tocilizumab lower. Steroid anticoagulant use high almost same during two waves. secondary bacterial fungal infections Wave-2. Mortality increased 40% Wave-2, particularly younger age less than 45 years. Higher mortality observed wards, ICU, or without ventilator support who received convalescent plasma. No significant differences these waves, indicates role other factors such as delta late admissions deaths. Comorbidity contributed mortality.

Language: Английский

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The Second- vs First-wave COVID-19: More of the Same or a Lot Worse? A Comparison of Mortality between the Two Waves in Patients Admitted to Intensive Care Units in Nine Hospitals in Western Maharashtra

Indian Journal of Critical Care Medicine, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 25(12), P. 1343 - 1348

Published: Dec. 1, 2021

India, along with the rest of world, faced challenging severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic. The second wave in India lagged behind that Western due to different timing seasons. There is scarce data about differences between two waves, for intensive care unit (ICU) patients. We present 3,498 patients from 9 ICUs western Maharashtra.We collected prospective hospitalized, RT-PCR confirmed, coronavirus-2019 (COVID-19) patients, nine tertiary centers, after institutional ethics committee (IEC) approval. Then, we segregated and analyzed admitted ICU, comorbidities, high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) score, ventilatory support, etc. primary outcomes were ICU hospital mortality. also performed multivariable analysis predictors mortality.Overall, there In first wave, 1,921 needed admission, while 1,577 Patients had significantly higher (26.1 vs 13.4%, p <0.001) mortality (29.9 18.2%, need support any type. More received steroids during wave. On regression, male gender, admission increasing HRCT intubation mechanical ventilation significant mortality.ICU waves similar age, but more females, comorbidities wave.Zirpe KG, Dixit S, Kulkarni AP, Pandit RA, Ranganathan P, Prasad et al. Second- First-wave COVID-19: Same or a Lot Worse? A Comparison Mortality Two Waves Admitted Intensive Care Units Nine Hospitals Maharashtra. Indian J Crit Med 2021; 25(12):1343-1348.

Language: Английский

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Identification of COVID-19 Waves: Considerations for Research and Policy

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 18(21), P. 11058 - 11058

Published: Oct. 21, 2021

The identification of COVID-19 waves is a matter the utmost importance, both for research and decision making. This study uses information from 52 municipalities Metropolitan Region, Chile, presents quantitative method—based on weekly accumulated incidence rates—to define waves. We explore three different criteria to duration wave, performed sensitivity analysis using multivariate linear models show their commonalities differences. results that, compared benchmark definition (a 100-day wave), estimations longer periods are worse in terms model’s overall fit (adjusted R2). article shows that defining wave not necessarily simple, has consequences when performing data analysis. highlight need adopt well-defined well-justified definitions waves, since these methodological choices can have an impact policy

Language: Английский

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