The impact of climate change scenarios on droughts and their propagation in an arid Mediterranean basin. A useful approach for planning adaptation strategies DOI Creative Commons

Juan-de-Dios Gómez-Gómez,

David Pulido-Velázquez, Antonio‐Juan Collados‐Lara

et al.

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 820, P. 153128 - 153128

Published: Jan. 15, 2022

Areas where there is a scarcity of water frequently experience significant drought periods, which may become exacerbated in the future due to climate change. In this paper we propose novel and integrated method for semi-distributed analysis impact on potential meteorological, hydrological, agronomical operational droughts within basin. We analyse propagation correlation different types droughts, then can be used plan sustainable adaptation strategies. The proposed based sequential applications statistical techniques mathematical models. have applied several downscaling generate consistent local scenarios considering both basic statistics. This allows us sensitivity results technique spatial distribution. A chain models has been propagate agricultural, impact. clustering historical data identify homogeneous hydro-climate areas distribution approach Segura basin (in south-eastern Spain). simulations 3 generated ensemble whole Basin system horizon 2071-2100 under RCP8.5 emission scenario show mean reduction (40.9-59.1%) available resources, an increase pumping rates aquifers (36.4-42.7%) lower guarantees (96.3% period 75.0-77.6% scenarios) demand supply. heterogeneous, with near coast agricultural being more affected. An between meteorological shows maximum time delay around 4 months. information could help when measures reduce should start starts.

Language: Английский

Soil degradation in the European Mediterranean region: Processes, status and consequences DOI Creative Commons
Carla Ferreira, Samaneh Seifollahi‐Aghmiuni, Georgia Destouni

et al.

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 805, P. 150106 - 150106

Published: Sept. 4, 2021

Soil, a non-renewable resource, sustains life on Earth by supporting around 95% of global food production and providing ecosystem services such as biomass production, filtration contaminants transfer mass energy between spheres. Unsustainable management practices climate change are threatening the natural capital soils, particularly in Mediterranean region, where increasing population, rapid land-use changes, associated socio-economic activities imposing high pressures region's shallow soils. Despite evidence soil susceptibility to degradation desertification, true extent region is unknown. This paper reviews summarises scientific literature relevant official reports, with aim advance this knowledge synthesizing, mapping, identifying gaps regarding status, causes, consequences processes European region. needed underpinning efforts counteract Three main categories then considered: physical (soil sealing, compaction, erosion), chemical organic matter, contamination, salinisation), biological. We find some be relatively well-documented (e.g. while others, loss biodiversity, remain poorly addressed, limited data availability. suggest establishment continuous, harmonised monitoring system at national regional scale provide comparable datasets chart spatial temporal changes degradation, corresponding economic implications. critical support decision-making fulfilment related sustainable development goals.

Language: Английский

Citations

362

Climate Change Risks to Global Forest Health: Emergence of Unexpected Events of Elevated Tree Mortality Worldwide DOI
Henrik Hartmann, Ana Bastos, Adrian J. Das

et al.

Annual Review of Plant Biology, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 73(1), P. 673 - 702

Published: March 1, 2022

Recent observations of elevated tree mortality following climate extremes, like heat and drought, raise concerns about change risks to global forest health. We currently lack both sufficient data understanding identify whether these represent a trend toward increasing mortality. Here, we document events sudden unexpected drought in ecosystems that previously were considered tolerant or not at risk exposure. These underscore the fact may affect forests with force future. use as examples highlight current difficulties challenges for realistically predicting such uncertainties future condition. Advances remote sensing technology greater availably high-resolution data, from field assessments satellites, are needed improve prediction responses change. Expected final online publication date Annual Review Plant Biology, Volume 73 is May 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates revised estimates.

Language: Английский

Citations

334

Atmospheric blocking and weather extremes over the Euro-Atlantic sector – a review DOI Creative Commons
Lisa‐Ann Kautz, Olivia Martius, Stephan Pfahl

et al.

Weather and Climate Dynamics, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 3(1), P. 305 - 336

Published: March 29, 2022

Abstract. The physical understanding and timely prediction of extreme weather events are enormous importance to society due their associated impacts. In this article, we highlight several types extremes occurring in Europe connection with a particular atmospheric flow pattern, known as blocking. This pattern effectively blocks the prevailing westerly large-scale flow, resulting changing anomalies vicinity blocking system persistent conditions immediate region its occurrence. Blocking systems long-lasting, quasi-stationary self-sustaining that occur frequently over certain regions. Their presence characteristics have an impact on predictability can thus be used potential indicators. phasing between surface upper-level is major for development event. summer, heat waves droughts form below anticyclone primarily via subsidence leads cloud-free skies and, thus, shortwave radiative warming ground. winter, cold during normally observed downstream or south these systems. Here, meridional advection air masses from higher latitudes plays decisive role. Depending location, also may lead shift storm track, which influences occurrence wind precipitation anomalies. Due multifaceted linkages, compound often conjunction conditions. addition aforementioned relations, links climate change assessed. Finally, current knowledge gaps pertinent research perspectives future discussed.

Language: Английский

Citations

219

Mediterranean Region DOI Open Access
Hans‐Otto Pörtner,

D Roberts,

M Tignor

et al.

Cambridge University Press eBooks, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 2233 - 2272

Published: June 22, 2023

A summary is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. As you have access to content, full PDF via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.

Language: Английский

Citations

88

Extreme weather and societal impacts in the eastern Mediterranean DOI Creative Commons
Assaf Hochman, Francesco Marra, Gabriele Messori

et al.

Earth System Dynamics, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 13(2), P. 749 - 777

Published: April 11, 2022

Abstract. Gaining a holistic understanding of extreme weather, from its physical drivers to impacts on society and ecosystems, is key supporting future risk reduction preparedness measures. Here, we provide an overview the state art, knowledge gaps open questions in study weather events over vulnerable eastern Mediterranean. This region situated transition zone between subtropical mid-latitude climates. The large-scale atmospheric circulation interaction with regional synoptic systems (i.e., Cyprus Lows, Red Sea Troughs, Persian “Sharav” Lows) high-pressure mainly govern weather. Complex orographic features further play important role generation Most events, including heavy precipitation, cold spells, floods windstorms, are associated Lows or active whereas heat waves related either Troughs sub-tropical summer Sharav Low during springtime. In decades, droughts projected significantly increase both frequency intensity. Changes precipitation may vary sign magnitude depending scale, severity interest. There still relatively large uncertainties concerning changes windstorms compound extremes, as these types received comparatively little attention literature. We identify that relate societal These effects have mortality, morbidity infrastructure Research currently limited this context, recommend strengthening database analyzed case studies. trust can only be suitably accomplished by inter-disciplinary international collaboration (in spite political unrest).

Language: Английский

Citations

80

Europe DOI Open Access
D. E. Portner,

M. Scot Roberts,

Peter Alexander

et al.

Cambridge University Press eBooks, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 1817 - 1928

Published: June 22, 2023

A summary is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. As you have access to content, full PDF via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.

Language: Английский

Citations

69

Climate Change in the Mediterranean Basin (Part II): A Review of Challenges and Uncertainties in Climate Change Modeling and Impact Analyses DOI Creative Commons
Leonardo Noto, Giuseppe Cipolla, Dario Pumo

et al.

Water Resources Management, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 37(6-7), P. 2307 - 2323

Published: Feb. 2, 2023

Abstract The Mediterranean basin is particularly prone to climate change and vulnerable its impacts. One of the most relevant consequences change, especially for southern regions, certainly water scarcity as result a reduction surface runoff groundwater levels. Despite progress achieved in recent years field impact on resources, results outcomes should be treated with due caution since any future projection derived implications are inevitably affected by certain degree uncertainty arising from each different stage entire modeling chain. This work offers comprehensive overview works basin, mainly focusing last ten research. Past trends components hydrological balance discussed companion paper (Noto et al. 2022), while present focuses problem availability scarcity. In addition, aims discuss sources related aim gain awareness studies interpretation reliability.

Language: Английский

Citations

65

Forest tree species adaptation to climate across biomes: Building on the legacy of ecological genetics to anticipate responses to climate change DOI
Laura P. Leites,

Marta Benito Garzón

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 29(17), P. 4711 - 4730

Published: April 8, 2023

Abstract Intraspecific variation plays a critical role in extant and future forest responses to climate change. Forest tree species with wide climatic niches rely on the intraspecific resulting from genetic adaptation phenotypic plasticity accommodate spatial temporal variability. A centuries‐old legacy of ecological genetics provenance trials has provided strong foundation upon which continue building this knowledge, is maintain climate‐adapted forests. Our overall objective understand trees across biomes, while our specific objectives are describe models used build foundational summarize modeling approaches that have expanded traditional toolset, extensively review literature 1994 2021 highlight main contributions new analyzes trials. We reviewed 103 studies comprising at least three common gardens, covered 58 species, 28 them range‐wide studies. Although using trial data cover mostly commercially important temperate boreal synthesis provides global overview climate. found evidence for local commonly present studied (79%), being more conifers (87.5%) than broadleaf (67%). In 57% clines fitness‐related traits were associated temperature variables, 14% precipitation, 25% both. Evidence lags was 50% conclude analysis provide excellent insights variation, whereas limits plasticity, will likely determine fate forests, vastly understudied.

Language: Английский

Citations

57

Why the 2022 Po River drought is the worst in the past two centuries DOI Creative Commons
Alberto Montanari, Hung Nguyen, Sara Rubinetti

et al.

Science Advances, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 9(32)

Published: Aug. 9, 2023

The causes of recent hydrological droughts and their future evolution under a changing climate are still poorly understood. Banking on 216-year river flow time series at the Po River outlet, we show that 2022 drought is worst event (30% lower than second worst, with six-century return period), part an increasing trend in severe occurrence. decline summer flows (-4.14 cubic meters per year), which more relevant precipitation decline, attributed to combination changes regime, resulting snow fraction (-0.6% year) snowmelt (-0.18 millimeters day evaporation rate (+0.013 kilometers irrigated areas (100% increment from 1900). Our study presents compelling case where impact change exacerbated by local hydrologic seasonality water use.

Language: Английский

Citations

56

Adapting cities to the surge: A comprehensive review of climate-induced urban flooding DOI Creative Commons

Gangani Dharmarathne,

Anushka Osadhi Waduge,

Madhusha Bogahawaththa

et al.

Results in Engineering, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 22, P. 102123 - 102123

Published: April 9, 2024

Climate change is a serious global issue causing more extreme weather patterns, resulting in frequent and severe events like urban flooding. This review explores the connection between climate flooding, offering statistical, scientific, advanced perspectives. Analyses of precipitation patterns show clear changes, establishing strong link heightened intensity rainfall events. Hydrological modeling case studies provide compelling scientific evidence attributing flooding to climate-induced changes. Urban infrastructure, including transportation networks critical facilities, increasingly vulnerable, worsening impact on people's lives businesses. Examining adaptation strategies, highlights need for resilient planning integration green infrastructure. Additionally, it delves into role technologies, such as artificial intelligence, remote sensing, predictive modeling, improving flood prediction, monitoring, management. The socio-economic implications are discussed, emphasizing unequal vulnerability importance inclusive policies. In conclusion, stresses urgency addressing through holistic analysis statistical trends, evidence, infrastructure vulnerabilities, adaptive measures. technologies comprehensive understanding essential developing effective, strategies. serves valuable resource, insights policymakers, researchers, practitioners striving climate-resilient futures amid escalating impacts.

Language: Английский

Citations

50