Lowering the rate of timber harvesting to mitigate impacts of climate change on boreal caribou habitat quality in eastern Canada

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 838, P. 156244 - 156244

Published: May 28, 2022

Language: Английский

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A regional integrated assessment of the impacts of climate change and of the potential adaptation avenues for Quebec's forests

Canadian Journal of Forest Research, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 53(8), P. 556 - 578

Published: March 23, 2023

Regional analyses assessing the vulnerabilities of forest ecosystems and sector to climate change are key considering heterogeneity impacts as well fact that risks, opportunities, adaptation capacities might differ regionally. Here we provide Integrated Assessment on Quebec's forests, a work involved several research teams focused commercial forests potential solutions. Our showed will alter ecological processes within forests. These changes result in important modifications landscapes. Harvest cumulate with effects further future landscapes, which also have consequences wildlife habitats (including woodland caribou habitat), avian biodiversity, carbon budget, variety landscape values for Indigenous peoples. The be crucial mitigate ecosystem goods services improve their resilience. Moving forward, broad range measures, notably through reducing harvest levels, should explored help strike balance among social, ecological, economic values. We conclude without adaptation, strong negative likely affect

Language: Английский

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Local weather interacts with human disturbances to shape the behaviour of boreal caribou across a large climate gradient

Biodiversity and Conservation, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Jan. 20, 2025

Language: Английский

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Integration of national demographic-disturbance relationships and local data can improve caribou population viability projections and inform monitoring decisions

Ecological Informatics, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 87, P. 103095 - 103095

Published: March 2, 2025

Language: Английский

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Climate change mitigation through woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus) habitat restoration in British Columbia

Environmental Research Ecology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 4(2), P. 025004 - 025004

Published: April 1, 2025

Abstract Climate change poses a significant global threat, requiring rapid and effective mitigation strategies to limit future warming. Tree planting is commonly proposed readily implementable natural climate solution. It also vital component of habitat restoration for the threatened woodland caribou ( Rangifer tarandus) . There potential goals conservation carbon sequestration be combined co-benefits. We examine this opportunity by estimating impacts tree in range British Columbia (BC), Canada. To do so, we couple Landsat-derived datasets with Physiological Processes Predicting Growth, process-based model forest growth. compare informed needs maximum under multiple scenarios including shared socio‐economic pathways (SSP) 2, representing ∼2.7 °C warming, SSP5, ∼4.4 Trees were modelled as planted 2025. Province-wide 2100, maximum-carbon averaged 1062 Mg CO 2 · ha −1 planted, while resulted an average 930 reduction 12%. found that relative between herds remained similar across warming that, most ecotypes, increased from 5% 7% coldest (∼2.7 warming) warmest (∼4.4 scenario. Variability was observed herds, highlighting importance spatially-explicit, herd-level analysis growth when planning activities. Our findings indicate large co-benefits BC all modelled. They underscore value models evaluating implications areas changing climate.

Language: Английский

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Bioclimatic, terrain, and specific peatland composition are major drivers of woodland caribou winter habitat suitability in northern Ontario

Canadian Journal of Zoology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 103, P. 1 - 18

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Mapping of winter habitat suitability is important for the persistence and conservation at-risk woodland caribou ( Rangifer tarandus (Gmelin, 1788)). While well documented at national scale boreal caribou, particularly in highly disturbed southern ranges, remains understudied northern intact ranges such as Ontario. We used boosted regression tree species distribution modeling environmental variables with ecological relevance to predict map suitable northeastern Ontario, Canada. The best model suggests that peatland types climatic effect James Hudson Bay may have a marked (68.8% cumulative relative influence) on suitability. Based this, predictive identified large clustered zone centered within transition between ecozones. By accounting local-scale aspects bioclimatic variables, our provides comprehensive predictions this zone. Additional investigation role type different seasons regions help further understand use.

Language: Английский

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There is still time to reconcile forest management with climate-driven declines in habitat suitability for boreal caribou

Global Ecology and Conservation, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 39, P. e02294 - e02294

Published: Sept. 27, 2022

Many boreal populations of woodland caribou in Canada are declining, mainly due to the prevalence anthropogenic disturbances which alter predator-prey dynamics. Climate change is expected exert an additional negative influence on coming decades, but it unclear whether or how human activities and climate will interact habitat suitability for caribou, important these agents be relative each other. In this study, we used LANDIS-II forest landscape model forecast across its distribution within harvestable Québec period 2020–2100, under three increasing radiative forcing scenarios (baseline, Representative Concentration Pathways [RCP] 4.5 8.5), two contrasting harvest (with without harvest). Our simulations revealed that harvesting was dominant agent explaining future variations suitability, although also decreased especially RCP 8.5. Climate-induced decreases mostly originated from increases wildfires burned mature conifer-dominated forests, i.e., high-quality caribou. Habitat by 2100 predicted vary spatially, with northeastern northwestern parts study area supporting better conditions regardless scenarios. We show reducing areas where currently high could help maintain even most intense scenario. results suggest highly-disturbed regions provide low-quality may not improve unless active restoration performed. helps disentangle potential effects management as threats habitat, emphasizing urgency reconciling conservation species at risk Canada.

Language: Английский

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Climate‐informed forecasts reveal dramatic local habitat shifts and population uncertainty for northern boreal caribou

Ecological Applications, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 33(3)

Published: Feb. 8, 2023

Most research on boreal populations of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) has been conducted in areas high anthropogenic disturbance. However, a large portion the species' range overlaps relatively pristine primarily affected by natural disturbances, such as wildfire. Climate-driven habitat change is key concern for conservation boreal-dependent species, where management decisions have yet to consider knowledge from multiple ecological domains integrated into cohesive and spatially explicit forecast species-specific demography. We used novel forecasting framework provide climate-sensitive projections demography five monitoring within Northwest Territories (NWT), Canada, over 90 years. Importantly, we quantify uncertainty around forecasted mean values. Our results suggest suitability may increase central southwest regions NWT's Taiga Plains ecozone but decrease southern northwestern driven conversion coniferous deciduous forests. do not project that population growth rates will despite changes suitability. emphasize importance efforts protect restore northern climate while highlighting expected spatial variations are important considerations local people who rely them. An ability reproduce previous work, critical thought when incorporating sources uncertainty, be refine forecasts, derive decisions, improve efficacy species at risk.

Language: Английский

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Climate change alone cannot explain boreal caribou range recession in Quebec since 1850

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 29(23), P. 6661 - 6678

Published: Sept. 26, 2023

The contraction of species range is one the most significant symptoms biodiversity loss worldwide. While anthropogenic activities and habitat alteration are major threats for several species, climate change should also be considered. For at risk, differentiating effects human disturbances on past current transformations an important step towards improved conservation strategies. We paired historical maps with global atmospheric reanalyses from different sources to assess potential recent observed northward boreal populations woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) in Quebec (Canada) since 1850. quantified these by highlighting discrepancies between southern limits caribou's (used as references) reconstitutions obtained through hindcasting conditions within which currently found. Hindcasted moved ~105 km north over time under all reanalysis datasets, a trend drastically ~620 reported differences latitudinal shift hindcasted distribution suggest that recession have been only 17% what has 1850 if had disturbance driver. This relatively limited impact reinforces scientific consensus stating mainly caused drivers (i.e. logging, development road network, agriculture, urbanization) modified structure composition forest 160 years, paving way habitat-mediated apparent competition overharvesting. Our results call reconsideration ranges models aiming projecting future distributions, especially endangered species.

Language: Английский

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Incorporating mechanism into conservation actions in an age of multiple and emerging threats: The case of boreal caribou

Ecosphere, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 14(7)

Published: July 1, 2023

Abstract Conservation strategies for imperiled species are frequently based on identifying and addressing the probable causes of population decline, an approach known as declining paradigm. Causes, however, linked to demographic outcomes by multiple mechanisms, failing target primary mechanisms can reduce effectiveness efficiency conservation actions. Increasingly, also need consider emerging threats, such climate change. Here, we use boreal caribou ( Rangifer tarandus ), a threatened ecotype woodland caribou, case study illustrate how landscape disturbance change each exert negative effects through complex mechanisms. We reviewed extensive literature focused identify assess relative importance putative mechanism. While disturbance‐mediated apparent competition, expansion novel predators, altered predator behavior appear be dictating past current declines has increasing potential strong direct indirect now in future. Predicted may prevent some populations from regaining self‐sustaining status, despite local Our review revealed several knowledge gaps, notably lack clarity spatial extent undisturbed habitat required stable. used our demonstrate mechanistic understanding decline inform habitat‐based caribou. For residing within highly disturbed ranges, restoration is key recommendation strategies, yet large disturbances will require prioritization areas restoration. Maximizing return‐on‐investment mechanistically informed process that targets actions toward underlying decline.

Language: Английский

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