Great Gerbils (Rhombomys opimus) in Central Asia Are Spreading to Higher Latitudes and Altitudes DOI Creative Commons

Xuan Liu,

Li Xu,

Jianghua Zheng

et al.

Ecology and Evolution, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 14(11)

Published: Nov. 1, 2024

ABSTRACT The great gerbil ( Rhombomys opimus ) is a gregarious rodent in Central Asia and one of the major pests found desert forest grassland areas. distribution changes migration routes R. under climate change remain unexplored. This study employed multi‐model ensemble, correlation analysis, jackknife method, minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) model to simulate potential habitat current future (2030 2050) scenarios estimate its possible routes. results indicate that ensemble integrating Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt) performed best within present context. predicted with an area curve (AUC) 0.986 True Skill Statistic (TSS) 0.899, demonstrating excellent statistical accuracy spatial performance. Under scenarios, northern Xinjiang southeastern Kazakhstan will core areas distribution. However, optimal region expand relative one. expansion increase rising CO 2 emission levels over time, potentially enlarging suitable by up 39.49 × 10 4 km . In terms distribution, for shifting toward higher latitudes elevations. For specific routes, tends favor paths through farmland grassland. can provide guidance managing controlling scenarios.

Language: Английский

Simulating the changes of the habitats suitability of chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) in the high seas of the North Pacific Ocean using ensemble models under medium to long-term future climate scenarios DOI Creative Commons
Yuyan Sun, Heng Zhang, Keji Jiang

et al.

Marine Pollution Bulletin, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 207, P. 116873 - 116873

Published: Aug. 24, 2024

Understanding and forecasting changes in marine habitats due to global climate warming is crucial for sustainable fisheries. Using future environmental data provided by Global Climate Models (GCMs) occurrence records of Chub mackerel the North Pacific Ocean (2014-2023), we built eight individual models four ensemble simulate current habitat distribution forecast under three scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) 2050s 2100s. Ensemble outperformed ones, with weighted average algorithm model achieving highest accuracy (AUC 0.994, TSS 0.929). Sea Surface Temperature (SST) chlorophyll-a (Chla) significantly influenced distribution. Predictions indicate high suitability areas are concentrated beyond 200-nautical-mile baseline. Under scenarios, expected decline, a shift towards higher latitudes deeper waters. High will be reduced.

Language: Английский

Citations

6
Simulating Habitat Suitability Changes of Threadfin Porgy (Evynnis cardinalis) in the Northern South China Sea Using Ensemble Models Under Medium-to-Long-Term Future Climate Scenarios DOI Creative Commons

Junyi Zhang,

Jiajun Li,

Yancong Cai

et al.

Biology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 14(3), P. 236 - 236

Published: Feb. 26, 2025

The impact of global warming on fish distribution is a key factor in fishery management and sustainable development. However, limited knowledge exists regarding the influence environmental factors Evynnis cardinalis under climate change. This study addresses this gap by predicting species current conditions three future scenarios (SSP126, SSP370, SSP585) using five individual models four ensemble models. results demonstrate that outperform single models, with majority voting (EMca) achieving highest accuracy (ROC = 0.97, TSS 0.85). Bathymetry (BM) sea surface height (SSH) are primary influencing distribution. predictions indicate currently suitable habitats E. primarily located Beibu Gulf region northern South China Sea. Under scenarios, habitat areas expected to expand higher latitudes deeper waters, though highly western Guangdong coastal Gulf, southwestern offshore waters Hainan Island will significantly decrease.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Comparative analysis of modeling methods and prediction accuracy for Japanese sardine habitat under three climate scenarios with differing greenhouse emission pathways DOI
Yuyan Sun, Delong Xiang, Jianhua Wang

et al.

Marine Pollution Bulletin, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 215, P. 117867 - 117867

Published: March 24, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Distribution and Conservation Gaps of Nautilus pompilius: A Study Based on Species Distribution Models DOI Creative Commons
Xiaoping Lai, Linlin Zhao, Wenhao Huang

et al.

Diversity, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 17(4), P. 243 - 243

Published: March 28, 2025

Nautilus pompilius, a ‘living fossil’ of the oceans, is crucial to study biological evolution and paleontology. However, species’ habitat has been severely impacted by global climate change. Based on this, species distribution models conservation gap analyses were conducted under current future scenarios. The results revealed that habitats for N. pompilius primarily located in coastal waters Australia, Indonesia, Philippines. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario, suitable projected decline 4.8% 2050s 5.3% 2100s. This loss expected intensify higher emission scenarios, particularly RCP 8.5, where reduction could reach 15.4% Conservation analysis indicates while nearly 30% fall within marine protected areas (MPAs), many vulnerable regions remain unprotected. Future MPA establishment should strategically address these gaps, such as Gulf Carpentaria, Arafura Sea, southern edge Timor Sea. provides critical insights into patterns needs emphasizing urgent need targeted efforts protect this endangered species.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Modelling the Influence of Climate Drivers on the Spatial Distribution of Scads along the West Coast of India DOI
Rose P. Bright,

Eldho Varghese,

Alphonsa Joseph

et al.

Regional Studies in Marine Science, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 104171 - 104171

Published: April 1, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Effect of climate change on the habitat suitability of the relict species Zelkova carpinifolia Spach using ensembled species distribution modelling DOI Creative Commons
Derya Evrim Koç, Beyza Ustaoğlu, Demet Bi̇lteki̇n

et al.

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 14(1)

Published: Nov. 14, 2024

Zelkova carpinifolia is a Tertiary relict tree distributed in Hyrcanian and Colchic forests. Most of its habitat has been destroyed the last century. This study aimed to model potentially suitable areas for from past future. The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) Future (2061–2080) models include 19 bioclimatic variables CCSM4 global circulation Pearson correlation coefficient was used assess collinearity between ten were selected distribution modelling. Habitat suitability estimated using Biodiversity Modelling (BIOMOD) ensemble modelling method by combining results algorithm R package "biomod2". area under curve (AUC) receiver operating characteristic (ROC) true skills statistics (TSS) calculated evaluate performance models. contributions environmental separately each model. According obtained, most effective variable species temperature seasonality (Bio4). revealed that survived refuge western Asia during LGM. These have remained largely unchanged even expanded. future predict habitats will narrow forests south Caspian Sea more conditions be found around Caucasus. Given increasing destruction these valuable plant due human activities expected negative impacts climate change future, it important develop policies strategies protection carpinifolia's habitat, creation nature reserves, sustainability.

Language: Английский

Citations

3
Modelling climate change impacts on the spatial distribution of anthrax in Zimbabwe DOI Creative Commons

Learnmore John,

Munyaradzi Davis Shekede, Isaiah Gwitira

et al.

BMC Public Health, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 24(1)

Published: Feb. 28, 2024

Abstract Background In Zimbabwe, anthrax is endemic with outbreaks being reported almost annually in livestock, wildlife, and humans over the past 40 years. Accurate modelling of its spatial distribution key formulating effective control strategies. this study, an Ensemble Species Distribution Model was used to model current future occurrence Zimbabwe. Methods Bioclimatic variables derived from Beijing Climate Centre System were disease. Collinearity testing conducted on 19 bioclimatic elevation remove redundancy. Variables that had no collinearity for habitat suitability modelling. Two climate change scenarios different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), RCP4.5 RCP8.5 used. evaluation done using true skill, Kappa statistics receiver operating characteristics. Results The results showed under conditions, eastern western districts Zimbabwe modelled as highly suitable, central moderately suitable southern parts marginally occurrence. Future predictions demonstrated (8%) (7%) areas would increase scenario. contrast, a respective decrease (11%) marginal (0.6%) predicted percentage contribution predictors varied scenarios; Bio6 Bio18 scenario, Bio2, Bio4 Bio9 Bio3 Bio15 scenarios. Conclusions study revealed currently should be targeted surveillance prevention. can guide prioritise activities optimise allocation limited resources. areas, disease systems awareness need put place early detection outbreaks. Targeted vaccinations other measures including collaborative ‘One Health’ strategies implemented areas. part where high predicted, continued monitoring necessary detect incursions early.

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Shrinking horizons: Climate-induced range shifts and conservation status of hickory trees (Carya Nutt.) DOI Creative Commons

Winnie W. Mambo,

Guang‐Fu Zhu,

Richard I. Milne

et al.

Ecological Informatics, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 102910 - 102910

Published: Nov. 1, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Ecological informatics: Metamorphosing ecology to a translational discipline DOI Creative Commons

R Jaishanker,

Athira Kakkara

Ecological Informatics, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 80, P. 102525 - 102525

Published: Feb. 18, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

0
An Empirical Evaluation of Ensemble Strategies in Habitat Suitability Modeling DOI
Omar El Alaoui, Ali Idri

SN Computer Science, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 5(5)

Published: April 27, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

0