Simulating the Changes Of The Habitats Suitability of Chub Mackerel ( Scomber Japonicus ) in the High Seas of the North Pacific Ocean Using Ensemble Models Under Medium to Long-Term Future Climate Scenarios

Published: Jan. 1, 2024

Understanding and forecasting changes in marine habitats due to global climate warming is crucial for sustainable fisheries. Using future environmental data provided by Global Climate Models (GCMs) occurrence records of Chub mackerel the North Pacific Ocean (2014-2023), we built eight individual models four ensemble simulate current habitat distribution forecast under three scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) 2050s 2100s. Ensemble outperformed ones, with weighted average algorithm model achieving highest accuracy (AUC 0.992, TSS 0.926). Sea surface temperature (SST) chlorophyll-a (Chla) significantly influenced distribution. Predictions indicate high suitability areas are concentrated beyond 200-nautical-mile baseline. Under scenarios, expected decline, a shift towards higher latitudes deeper waters. High will be reduced.

Language: Английский

Analyzing the Distribution Patterns of Endemic Quercus vulcanica (Boiss. et Heldr. ex) Kotschy in Türkiye Under Climate Change Using Ensemble Modeling

Forests, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(11), P. 1935 - 1935

Published: Nov. 3, 2024

Quercus vulcanica (Boiss. et Heldr. ex) Kotschy (Kasnak oak), one of the 18 species naturally distributed in Anatolia, is an endemic with a restricted distribution range. In accordance International Union for Conservation Nature (IUCN) Red List Endangered Species classification, designated as low risk (LC: Least Concern). However, it predicted that habitat will narrow and become endangered result potential climate change scenarios future. The aim this study was to estimate temporal spatial Anatolia during LGM, well examine impact present future changes on species. context, principal component analysis applied 19 bioclimatic variables Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4) model, nine identified use modeling. Habitat suitability estimated using Biodiversity Modeling (BIOMOD) ensemble modeling method, which combines results different algorithms through R package ‘biomod2’, applying both committee averaging weighted average approaches. To evaluate performance models, Area Under Curve (AUC) Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC), True Skill Statistics (TSS), KAPPA Boyce Index were calculated. contributions environmental determined per-algorithm-model basis. analyses show contribute most are Bio8. capable occupying suitable areas across majority Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). It anticipated projections indicate notable reduction extent species, remaining confined vicinity Ilgaz Mountains, Köroğlu Mountains Bolkar Mountains. Given increasing destruction vulcanica, plant, be adversely affected by human impacts change, highest importance develop adaptation strategies view protecting species’ sustainability

Language: Английский

Great Gerbils (Rhombomys opimus) in Central Asia Are Spreading to Higher Latitudes and Altitudes

Ecology and Evolution, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 14(11)

Published: Nov. 1, 2024

ABSTRACT The great gerbil ( Rhombomys opimus ) is a gregarious rodent in Central Asia and one of the major pests found desert forest grassland areas. distribution changes migration routes R. under climate change remain unexplored. This study employed multi‐model ensemble, correlation analysis, jackknife method, minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) model to simulate potential habitat current future (2030 2050) scenarios estimate its possible routes. results indicate that ensemble integrating Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt) performed best within present context. predicted with an area curve (AUC) 0.986 True Skill Statistic (TSS) 0.899, demonstrating excellent statistical accuracy spatial performance. Under scenarios, northern Xinjiang southeastern Kazakhstan will core areas distribution. However, optimal region expand relative one. expansion increase rising CO 2 emission levels over time, potentially enlarging suitable by up 39.49 × 10 4 km . In terms distribution, for shifting toward higher latitudes elevations. For specific routes, tends favor paths through farmland grassland. can provide guidance managing controlling scenarios.

Language: Английский