Multi-scenario simulation analysis of cultivated land based on PLUS model—a case study of Haikou, China DOI Creative Commons
Xiaofu Lin, Hui Fu

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 11

Published: June 2, 2023

Land-use changes have received increasing attention since the 1990s. Cultivated land is a vital resource with both natural and economic features. Socioeconomic development profoundly affects spatiotemporal evolution of cultivated land. In turn, change also reflects socioeconomic trend. This study took Haikou City, which has highest degree urbanization in Hainan Province, as area, analyzed characteristics its resources during past 20 years rapid development, predicted future trends on this basis, to provide scientific reference for rational use sustainable Haikou. applied single land-use dynamic (SLUDD) transfer matrix explore from 2000 2020. The patch-generating simulation (PLUS) model was introduced predict patterns under different scenarios 2030. results showed that: (1) although contributed Haikou's rate over years, accompanying expansion construction caused damage resources, especially urban suburbs. Site conditions, differential benefits, radiation may be potential influencing factors leading loss peri-urban land; (2) it verified that PLUS applies prediction Haikou; (3) not only continued original zone but exposed new sites loss. Although an inevitable trend, there still hope can controlled, example, conservation scenario. three essential values maintenance security

Language: Английский

Using the InVEST-PLUS Model to Predict and Analyze the Pattern of Ecosystem Carbon storage in Liaoning Province, China DOI Creative Commons
Pengcheng Li,

Jundian Chen,

Yixin Li

et al.

Remote Sensing, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 15(16), P. 4050 - 4050

Published: Aug. 16, 2023

Studying the spatiotemporal distribution pattern of carbon storage, balancing land development and utilization with ecological protection, promoting urban low-carbon sustainable are important topics under China’s “dual strategy” (Carbon emissions stabilize harmonize natural absorption). However, existing research has paid little attention to impact use changes different spatial policies on provincial-scale ecosystem storage. In this study, we established a density database for Liaoning Province obtained temporal storage over past 20 years. Then, based 16 driving factors multiple in Province, predicted cover (LUCC) three scenarios 2050 analyzed characteristics response mechanisms scenarios. The results showed that (1) LUCC directly affected 35.61% increase construction decrease 0.51 Tg 20-year period. (2) From 2020 2050, varied significantly among trend scenario (NTS), restoration (ERS), economic priority (EPS), values 2112.05 Tg, 2164.40 2105.90 respectively. Carbon exhibited positive growth, mainly due substantial forest area. (3) was characterized by “low center, high east, balanced west”. Therefore, can consider rationally formulating strictly implementing policy protection future planning so as control disorderly growth land, realize area, effectively enhance ensure realization goal strategy”.

Language: Английский

Citations

60

Comparative Analysis of the Seasonal Driving Factors of the Urban Heat Environment Using Machine Learning: Evidence from the Wuhan Urban Agglomeration, China, 2020 DOI Creative Commons
Ce Xu, Gaoliu Huang, Maomao Zhang

et al.

Atmosphere, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(6), P. 671 - 671

Published: May 31, 2024

With the ongoing advancement of globalization significantly impacting ecological environment, continuous rise in Land Surface Temperature (LST) is increasingly jeopardizing human production and living conditions. This study aims to investigate seasonal variations LST its driving factors using mathematical models. Taking Wuhan Urban Agglomeration (WHUA) as a case study, it explores characteristics employs Principal Component Analysis (PCA) categorize factors. Additionally, compares traditional models with machine-learning select optimal model for this investigation. The main conclusions are follows. (1) WHUA’s exhibits significant differences among seasons demonstrates distinct spatial-clustering different seasons. (2) Compared geographic spatial models, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) shows better explanatory power investigating effects LST. (3) Human Activity (HA) dominates influence throughout year positive correlation LST; Physical Geography (PG) negative Climate Weather (CW) show similar variation PG, peaking transition; Landscape Pattern (LP) weak LST, winter while being relatively inconspicuous summer transition. Finally, through comparative analysis multiple constructs framework exploring features aiming provide references guidance development WHUA regions.

Language: Английский

Citations

27

Impacts of ecological land fragmentation on habitat quality in the Taihu Lake basin in Jiangsu Province, China DOI Creative Commons
Jie Pu,

Anran Shen,

Chenxi Liu

et al.

Ecological Indicators, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 158, P. 111611 - 111611

Published: Jan. 1, 2024

The quality of the habitats and ecosystem services are significantly impacted by ecological land fragmentation brought on human activities. However, specific driving mechanism comprehensive landscape habitat is still unclear. This study took cities Suzhou, Wuxi, Changzhou along Taihu Lake basin as its research region. spatiotemporal variations in their relationship with were explored land-use dynamic rate, transfer matrix, indices, Integrated Valuation Ecosystem Services Tradeoffs (InVEST) model, Geographically Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) model during 2000–2020 period. findings revealed that: (1) On whole, area rose, northern eastern areas region had greatest transformations use/land cover (LULC). (2) Within period, index showed a fluctuating growth trend, there regions large high value clustered. (3) In whole deteriorated, more concentrated degradation seen around woodland construction land. (4) Numerous factors contributed to regional temporal changes effect varied between regions. These could provide theoretical guidance for protection, improvement, restoration similar environments.

Language: Английский

Citations

26

Research on the evolution characteristics, driving mechanisms and multi-scenario simulation of habitat quality in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay based on multi-model coupling DOI
Yufan Wu, Jiangbo Wang, Aiping Gou

et al.

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 924, P. 171263 - 171263

Published: Feb. 28, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

17

Assessment of Topographic Effect on Habitat Quality in Mountainous Area Using InVEST Model DOI Creative Commons
Qing Xiang,

Aike Kan,

Xiaoxiang Yu

et al.

Land, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 12(1), P. 186 - 186

Published: Jan. 6, 2023

The topographic differentiation patterns of changes in habitat quality are great significance for the scientific formulation environmental protection policies mountainous areas. Here, distribution, changing trends, and effects gradient on were studied using InVEST model, distribution index, Mann–Kendall test. results showed that at p < 0.05 (Z = 1.67), from 2000 to 2020 three types trends (significant decline, non-significant change, significant increase), accounting 22.2%, 41.8%, 36% changes, respectively. Because livelihood structure local residents geological disasters high-elevation areas, this terrain was predominant area showing a decline quality. Thanks consolidation projects natural forest resources, return farmland forest, implementation protecting low-lying topography increase middle position no Based analysis, ecological management measures high-, medium-, low-elevation areas suggested.

Language: Английский

Citations

24

Spatial pattern evolution and prediction scenario of habitat quality in typical fragile ecological region, China: A case study of the Yellow River floodplain area DOI Creative Commons
Hongbo Zhao,

Xiaoman Xu,

Junqing Tang

et al.

Heliyon, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 9(3), P. e14430 - e14430

Published: March 1, 2023

The Yellow River basin is an important area for China to implement ecological protection policies. Studying the habitat quality of floodplain great significance security and sustainable development entire basin. This study primarily investigated spatial pattern in from 2000 2020, then, we also simulated changes 2025–2035 analyzed influencing factors by coupling PLUS (Patch-generating Land Use Simulation) model, InVEST (Integrated Valuation Ecosystem Services Trade-offs) model RF (Random Forest) model. results showed that:(1) From cultivated land build-up constituted part area, growth rate was fast. (2) We found that (forest land, grassland, waterbody) had a higher contribution value quality, while lower quality. (3) Overall, degradation trend 2020. In addition, regions with low accounted major proportion. (4) Based on calculation Random Forest (RF) topographical relief (TR) use intensity (LUI) were two most affecting area. (5) According four scenarios 2025 2035, it level would be highest under scenario, urban scenario its lowest. attempts combine improve objectivity accuracy future prediction which can provide scientific reference governance policy formulation

Language: Английский

Citations

23

Ecosystem service valuation and multi-scenario simulation in the Ebinur Lake Basin using a coupled GMOP-PLUS model DOI Creative Commons
Hua Tang, Abudureheman Halike,

Kaixuan Yao

et al.

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 14(1)

Published: March 1, 2024

Abstract The Ebinur Lake Basin is an ecologically sensitive area in arid region. Investigating its land use and cover (LULC) change assessing predicting ecosystem service value (ESV) are of great importance for the stability basin's socioeconomic development sustainable ecological environment. Based on LULC data from 1990, 2000, 2010, 2020, we assessed ESV coupled grey multi-objective optimization model with patch generation simulation to predict changes 2035 under four scenarios: business-as-usual (BAU) development, rapid economic (RED), protection (ELP), ecological–economic balance (EEB). results show that 1990 basin was dominated by grassland (51.23%) unused (27.6%), a continuous decrease increase cultivated land. In thirty years, total study increased 18.62 billion 67.28 yuan, regulation support services being dominant functions. By 2035, while decreased all scenarios compared 2020. BAU, RED, ELP, EEB 68.83 billion, 64.47 67.99 66.79 respectively. RED scenarios, 2.81 0.49 BAU scenario, provisioning 6.05% 2.93%, ELP focusing environmental protection, saw services. This paper can assist policymakers optimizing allocation provide scientific formulation strategies inland river basins regions.

Language: Английский

Citations

12

A new model based on coupling coordination analysis incorporates the development rate for urbanization and ecosystem services assessment: A case of the Yangtze River Delta DOI Creative Commons
Zhijie Yang,

Jingxuan Hu,

Zi-An Wang

et al.

Ecological Indicators, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 159, P. 111596 - 111596

Published: Jan. 25, 2024

Understanding the dynamic relationship between ecosystem service supply and urbanization demand, identifying underlying influencing mechanisms are crucial for sustainable development in global process. However, current studies mainly focused on coupling coordination of situation, rather than system. Thus, we introduced concept degree (DCCD) to address research gap. This study calculated rates composite index (ESSCI) demand (UDDCI) from 2000 2020 construct DCCD model case Yangtze River Delta region. Subsequently, analysed inherent causing regional differences DCCD. Our results indicated that (1) ESSCI UDDCI showed spatiotemporal heterogeneity, rate had significant north south, decreased east west. (2) In 2020, notable existed northern southern region, with zone being lower. The situation improved 2005 2015. (3) Global habitat quality a impact coordination. north, annual water yield significantly influenced coordination, while carbon sequestration it. These factors related land use. We into old achieve goals.

Language: Английский

Citations

11

How do different processes of habitat fragmentation affect habitat quality? – Evidence from China DOI Creative Commons

Jialong Xu,

Yun Ling,

Yiyan Sun

et al.

Ecological Indicators, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 160, P. 111880 - 111880

Published: March 1, 2024

Large-scale loss and fragmentation of natural habitats is one the critical factors in global decline biodiversity. Habitat quality foundation for supporting biodiversity, so exploring mechanisms by which habitat affects important biodiversity protection. However, little known about specific forms that various processes affect quality. Taking China as an example, three (the decrease area, increase isolation, edge) variations were quantitatively assessed from 2000 to 2020. On this basis, Pearson coefficients, Generalized Additive Model (GAM) Geographical detector employed examine linear\non-linear\combined impacts different on The results indicated there was a clear trend degradation 2000–2020. 56.94%, 42.33%, 50.89% area experienced edge, respectively, 63.12% All these result downward form showed non-linear characteristics. isolation consistently had significant negative influence quality, albeit with varying strengths at segments. While edge causes overall two have more complex relationship, response curves varied between positive correlations. In addition, are exacerbated when multiple occur simultaneously. These findings reveal inform development rational landscape planning conservation measures China.

Language: Английский

Citations

10

Predicting and analyzing the algal population dynamics of a grass-type lake with explainable machine learning DOI
Hao Cui, Yiwen Tao, Jian Li

et al.

Journal of Environmental Management, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 354, P. 120394 - 120394

Published: Feb. 26, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

9