Simulating the changes of the habitats suitability of chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) in the high seas of the North Pacific Ocean using ensemble models under medium to long-term future climate scenarios

Marine Pollution Bulletin, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 207, P. 116873 - 116873

Published: Aug. 24, 2024

Understanding and forecasting changes in marine habitats due to global climate warming is crucial for sustainable fisheries. Using future environmental data provided by Global Climate Models (GCMs) occurrence records of Chub mackerel the North Pacific Ocean (2014-2023), we built eight individual models four ensemble simulate current habitat distribution forecast under three scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) 2050s 2100s. Ensemble outperformed ones, with weighted average algorithm model achieving highest accuracy (AUC 0.994, TSS 0.929). Sea Surface Temperature (SST) chlorophyll-a (Chla) significantly influenced distribution. Predictions indicate high suitability areas are concentrated beyond 200-nautical-mile baseline. Under scenarios, expected decline, a shift towards higher latitudes deeper waters. High will be reduced.

Language: Английский

---

Simulating Habitat Suitability Changes of Threadfin Porgy (Evynnis cardinalis) in the Northern South China Sea Using Ensemble Models Under Medium-to-Long-Term Future Climate Scenarios

Biology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 14(3), P. 236 - 236

Published: Feb. 26, 2025

The impact of global warming on fish distribution is a key factor in fishery management and sustainable development. However, limited knowledge exists regarding the influence environmental factors Evynnis cardinalis under climate change. This study addresses this gap by predicting species current conditions three future scenarios (SSP126, SSP370, SSP585) using five individual models four ensemble models. results demonstrate that outperform single models, with majority voting (EMca) achieving highest accuracy (ROC = 0.97, TSS 0.85). Bathymetry (BM) sea surface height (SSH) are primary influencing distribution. predictions indicate currently suitable habitats E. primarily located Beibu Gulf region northern South China Sea. Under scenarios, habitat areas expected to expand higher latitudes deeper waters, though highly western Guangdong coastal Gulf, southwestern offshore waters Hainan Island will significantly decrease.

Language: Английский

---

Climate Variability and Fish Community Dynamics: Impacts of La Niña Events on the Continental Shelf of the Northern South China Sea

Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 13(3), P. 474 - 474

Published: Feb. 28, 2025

This study investigates the impacts of climate variability, particularly La Niña events, on fish community continental shelf northern South China Sea, a region highly sensitive to environmental fluctuations. Historical fishery survey data, collected from autumn 2019 2022, were used analyze changes in species composition, diversity indices, and structure during non-La periods. The results show that significantly altered dynamics. During Niña, cold-water conditions expanded range suitable habitats for species, leading increased dominance Japanese scad (Decapterus maruadsi), with its index relative importance (IRI) reaching 1795.9 1320.2 2021 respectively. In contrast, warm-water experienced reduction habitats. Margalef’s richness (D’) peaked at 23.18 but decreased 20.69 by spring 2022. Shannon–Wiener (H’) dropped 2.597 period (spring 2020) 2.406 2022); similarly, Pielou’s evenness fell 0.4749 0.4396, indicating an increase ecological imbalance. As weakened, began recover. By D’ had risen 22.73 H’ 2.573, reflecting gradual return before event. Species distribution models incorporating key variables (i.e., sea surface temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen) demonstrated habitat D. maruadsi contracted post-event Our findings highlight sensitivity communities variability underscore adaptive resource management strategies mitigate change marine ecosystems. research provides valuable insights sustaining regional resources under changing conditions.

Language: Английский

---

Comparative analysis of modeling methods and prediction accuracy for Japanese sardine habitat under three climate scenarios with differing greenhouse emission pathways

Marine Pollution Bulletin, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 215, P. 117867 - 117867

Published: March 24, 2025

Language: Английский

---

Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Habitat Pattern of Trichiurus japonicus in the Northern South China Sea Under Future Climate Scenarios

Fishes, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 9(12), P. 488 - 488

Published: Nov. 29, 2024

The impact of climate change on fish distribution has drawn increasing attention worldwide. Studying the patterns and habitat evolution trends largehead hairtail (Trichiurus japonicus), an important fishery resource in northern South China Sea (NSCS), is great significance for management sustainable utilization resources. This study uses ensemble species model to analyze seasonal T. japonicus NSCS predict changes highly suitable habitats under four future scenarios (IPCC Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5). results show that area Beibu Gulf expected increase, while offshore Guangdong will significantly decrease. In different seasons, there are differences environmental factors affecting japonicus, among which sea bottom temperature (SBT) bathymetry (BM) key factors. Under SSP1-2.6 scenario, decrease by 30.54% 2100s, SSP5-8.5 it 53.67%. Our research active range adaptive responses scenarios, development

Language: Английский

---

Simulating the Changes Of The Habitats Suitability of Chub Mackerel ( Scomber Japonicus ) in the High Seas of the North Pacific Ocean Using Ensemble Models Under Medium to Long-Term Future Climate Scenarios

Published: Jan. 1, 2024

Understanding and forecasting changes in marine habitats due to global climate warming is crucial for sustainable fisheries. Using future environmental data provided by Global Climate Models (GCMs) occurrence records of Chub mackerel the North Pacific Ocean (2014-2023), we built eight individual models four ensemble simulate current habitat distribution forecast under three scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) 2050s 2100s. Ensemble outperformed ones, with weighted average algorithm model achieving highest accuracy (AUC 0.992, TSS 0.926). Sea surface temperature (SST) chlorophyll-a (Chla) significantly influenced distribution. Predictions indicate high suitability areas are concentrated beyond 200-nautical-mile baseline. Under scenarios, expected decline, a shift towards higher latitudes deeper waters. High will be reduced.

Language: Английский

---

Comparative Analysis of Climate-Induced Habitat Shift of Economically Significant Species with Diverse Ecological Preferences in the Northwest Pacific

Published: Jan. 1, 2024

Language: Английский

---

Comparative analysis of climate-induced habitat shift of economically significant species with diverse ecological preferences in the Northwest Pacific

Frontiers in Marine Science, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 11

Published: Nov. 6, 2024

The Northwest Pacific Ocean is the most productive fishing ground in Ocean, with a continuous rise water temperature since 1990. We developed stacked species distribution models (SSDMs) to estimate impacts of climate change on dynamics economically significant under three scenarios for periods 2040-2060 and 2080-2100. Overall, important factor shaping patterns species, followed by depth. predictive results indicate that all show northward migration future, distance varies greatly among species. Most pelagic will expand their habitats change, implying stronger adaptability than benthic Tropical fishes are more adaptable other zones. Though limitations existed, our study provided baseline information designing climate-adaptive, dynamic fishery management strategy maintaining sustainable fisheries.

Language: Английский

---