From Ecological Niche to Conservation Planning; Climate‐Driven Range Dynamics of Ephedra intermedia in Central Asia

Ecology and Evolution, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 15(3)

Published: March 1, 2025

ABSTRACT Ephedra intermedia , a medicinally significant plant, is an important component of arid and semi‐arid ecosystems across Central South Asia. This research sought to predict the present future distribution E. by applying ecological niche modeling (ENM) methods. The model incorporated comprehensive bioclimatic edaphic variables species' habitat suitability. results demonstrated high predictive accuracy, highlighting importance temperature seasonality, annual range, soil pH, nitrogen content as key species determinants. current suitability map revealed core areas in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Tajikistan mountain regions. Under climate change scenarios (SSP2‐4.5 SSP5‐8.5) for 2050s 2070s, projected upward northward shift suitable habitats, coupled with notable contraction extent highly areas, particularly under high‐emission SSP5‐8.5 scenario. predicted range shifts reflect sensitivity increasing temperatures changing precipitation patterns. suggests potential loss habitats low‐elevation southern parts its range. Including factors provided novel insights, specifically critical role properties, such pH content, shaping . These findings complement observed scenarios, emphasizing reliance on high‐altitude refugia conditions change. underscore implications conservation planning, suggesting that strategies should prioritize protection these refugial while also considering measures connectivity assisted migration support adaptation shifting environmental conditions.

Language: Английский

Predicting Suitable Spatial Distribution Areas for Urban Trees Under Climate Change Scenarios Using Species Distribution Models: A Case Study of Michelia chapensis

Land, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 14(3), P. 638 - 638

Published: March 18, 2025

Climate change has presented considerable challenges in the management of urban forests and trees. Varieties studies have predicted potential changes species distribution by employing single-algorithm models (SDMs) to investigate impacts climate on plant species. However, there is still limited quantitative research suitable ranges commonly used tree Therefore, our study aims optimize traditional SDMs integrating multiple machine learning algorithms propose a framework for identifying trees under change. We took Michelia chapensis, particular significance southern China, as pilot evolution its range context two future scenarios (SSP126 SSP585) across four periods (2030s, 2050s, 2070s, 2090s). The findings indicated that ensemble SDM showed strong predictive capacity, with an area curve (AUC) value 0.95. chapensis estimated at 15.9 × 105 km2 currently it will expand most areas according projection. contract southeastern Yunnan, central Guangdong, Sichuan Basin, northern Hubei, Jiangxi, etc. location current located Hengyang, Hunan (27.36° N, 112.34° E), projected shift westward future. migration magnitude positively correlated intensity These provide scientific basis landscape planning chapensis. Furthermore, proposed can be seen valuable tool predicting response change, providing insights proactive adaptation management.

Language: Английский

Comment on: “Mapping the climate risk to urban forests at city scale” by Esperon-Rodriguez et al.

Landscape and Urban Planning, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 254, P. 105248 - 105248

Published: Nov. 9, 2024

Language: Английский