Sustainable water allocation under climate change: Deep learning approaches to predict drinking water shortages

Journal of Environmental Management, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 385, P. 125600 - 125600

Published: May 8, 2025

Addressing sustainable urban water supply has become one of the most critical challenges for modern megacities, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions where rapid urbanization climate change converge to exacerbate resource scarcity. Tehran, a metropolis under mounting stress, exemplifies this global crisis. With population pressures, migration, poor planning, inadequate environmental management intensifying demand water, reliance on groundwater surged over 51 % city's total by 2021. This unsustainable dependence is compounded severe aquifer depletion, now declining at an alarming rate 32 cm annually. study adopts advanced machine learning approaches provide forward-looking, integrative approach understanding mitigating impacts centralization, land-use mismanagement, variability Tehran's resources. By leveraging hybrid simulation models, combining Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models with three optimization techniques (i.e. Fire Hawk Optimizer (FHO), Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA), Horse (HOA)) research offers powerful tool managing allocation across five dam reservoirs Tehran aquifer. Our analysis reveals that RNN-FHO model demonstrates superior performance predicting inflows, while RNN-WOA excels forecasting table fluctuations, providing vital roadmap planners. We developed robust conceptual address anticipated drinking shortages supplementing surface To simulate future conditions, we employed state-of-the-art (MRI-ESM2, CNRM-CM6-1, BCC-CSM2) emission pathways (SSP1.26, SSP2.45, SSP5.85) period 2021-2050. The projections indicate troubling trend: inflows could decline 8% optimistic scenario 11 worst case. Furthermore, 2030, expected exceed 2.2 BCM, pressure resources necessitating large-scale transfers. Excessive extraction, ranging from 100 300 MCM, would result drastic drawdowns 46-171 cm, threatening both hydrological stability health. highlights need paradigm shift practices. A strategic approach, encompassing reductions per capita consumption, extensive recycling, improved use treated effluent landscapes, optimized allocation, essential avert looming methodologies insights presented offer transformative solutions water-stressed environments worldwide.

Language: Английский

Agrochemical contamination and fish health: eco-toxicological impacts and mitigation strategies

Chemistry and Ecology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 1 - 35

Published: May 30, 2025

Language: Английский