Investing
in
overseas
lithium
brine
projects
is
essential
for
major
lithium-consuming
countries
to
secure
a
stable
supply
of
resources.
However,
multidimensional
uncertainties,
such
as
product
price,
technological
progress,
and
the
investment
environment,
have
increased
difficulties
projects’
decisions.
To
address
this
problem,
comprehensive
decision
model
based
on
real
option
theory
developed,
its
performance
well
impact
uncertainty
factors
are
investigated
through
scenario
analysis
case
study
Argentina.
The
obtained
results
show
that
(i)The
price
range
trigger
immediate
project’s
resources
12
13
thousand
USD/Tonne
LCE;
(ii)The
main
risk
sources
inflation,
openness,
fiscal
balance;
(iii)
Cost
reductions
caused
by
progress
will
mainly
come
from
carbonate
plant
with
auxiliary
facilities,
reagents.
It
can
be
concluded
proposed
RO
(Real
Option)
able
consider
flexibility
postponed
discover
higher
value
21.83%
average.
At
same
time,
it
obtain
more
realistic
solutions
integrating
avoid
over-optimistic
investment.
Risks,
Journal Year:
2025,
Volume and Issue:
13(3), P. 46 - 46
Published: Feb. 28, 2025
This
study
examines
the
integrated
impacts
of
cyberattacks,
geopolitical,
and
financial
market
volatility
on
rare
earth
markets
during
2014–2024
period,
using
Time-Varying
Parameter
Vector
Autoregression
wavelet
analysis.
By
bridging
critical
gaps
in
literature,
this
research
provides
a
comprehensive
framework
for
understanding
compounded
effects
emerging
risks
dynamics.
The
analysis
includes
key
indices
(SOLLIT,
PICK,
SPGSIN,
GSPTXGM,
MVREMXTR,
XME),
alongside
green
energy
prices,
to
capture
cross-market
dependencies.
findings
reveal
that
exerts
most
persistent
long-term
influence,
while
geopolitical
events,
such
as
US-China
trade
tensions
Ukraine
conflict,
trigger
significant
disruptions.
Cyberattacks,
although
episodic,
exacerbate
short-term
volatility,
especially
global
crises.
Rising
prices
further
amplify
vulnerabilities
supply
chains,
underscoring
interconnectedness
sustainable
transition.
actionable
insights
risk
management
strategies,
emphasizing
chain
diversification,
enhanced
cybersecurity,
international
cooperation
ensure
stability
resilience
