SSRN Electronic Journal,
Journal Year:
2024,
Volume and Issue:
unknown
Published: Jan. 1, 2024
This
paper
investigates
the
interaction
between
global
geopolitical
risks
and
energy
uncertainty
by
focusing
on
their
implications
for
domestic
prices
of
157
countries.
The
empirical
investigation
is
based
a
structural
vector
autoregression
model
covering
monthly
sample
period
1996m1-2022m10,
where
real
economic
activity
controlled
for.
results
show
that
unit
shock
to
risk
(normalized
one
standard
deviation)
in
about
1.13
units
an
increase
long
run
(after
two
years),
whereas
corresponding
effects
are
statistically
insignificant.
In
contrast,
52%
reduction
prices.
When
country-specific
considered,
10%
(10%)
oil
producing
countries,
32.1%
(19.7%)
non-oil
47.2%
(0%)
advanced
economies,
55%
euro
area
25%
(22.4%)
emerging
markets,
22.2%
(26.7%)
developing
countries
affected
positively
(negatively)
significant
way
following
positive
run.
comparison,
5%
(40%)
3.6%
(54%)
0%
(61.1%)
(50%)
3.9%
(56.6%)
6.7%
(37.8%)
Important
policy
follow
regarding
security
Business Strategy and the Environment,
Journal Year:
2025,
Volume and Issue:
unknown
Published: May 1, 2025
ABSTRACT
This
study
examined
how
Bitcoin,
energy
prices,
and
geopolitical
risk
interact
by
examining
the
first
four
moments
(mean,
variance,
skewness,
kurtosis)
of
their
return
distributions
using
wavelet
analysis.
The
findings
reveal
that
co‐movement
patterns
index,
Bitcoin
prices
are
time
frequency
sensitive.
During
turbulent
period
2020–2024,
significant
cross
effect
was
observed
at
medium‐
long‐term
scales
in
relationship
between
index
index.
Similarly,
case
cross‐effects
were
detected
short‐term
scales.
From
2021
onwards,
a
strong
coherence
is
high
medium
frequencies
for
all
moment
pairs
among
risk.
In
terms
Bitcoin‐energy
relationship,
mean
volatility
noted
throughout
most
sample
across
different
bands.
Moreover,
cross‐skewness
cross‐kurtosis
connections
more
prominent
short‐
medium‐term
horizons,
especially
during
covid
pandemic.
These
insights
valuable
investors
policymakers
management.
Asia,
in
particular
East
Asia
and
the
South
China
Sea,
is
one
of
regions
that
are
particularly
exposed
to
geopolitical
risk.
We
study
impact
an
increased
presence
U.S.
military
on
asset
prices
capital
inflows
region.
For
purpose,
we
construct
a
novel
index
from
local
newspapers
reporting
Carrier
Strike
Groups
region
estimate
market
surprise
change
this
index.
Our
findings
reveal
higher
causes
increase
stock
prices,
appreciation
currency,
inflow
foreign
capital,
but
also
level
Interestingly,
during
first
Trump
administration,
some
effects
sign.
distinguish
between
deployments
aircraft
carriers
related
tensions
with
North
Korea
those
China.
International Journal of Energy Sector Management,
Journal Year:
2025,
Volume and Issue:
unknown
Published: Jan. 12, 2025
Purpose
The
purpose
of
this
study
is
to
empirically
investigates
the
influence
geopolitical
risk
acts
(GPR)
on
world
crude
oil
production.
GPRs
are
a
proxy
for
waging
wars
and
military
actions,
thus
it
expected
have
clear
impact
production
(WCOP).
Design/methodology/approach
current
formulates
theoretical
model,
its
parameters
estimated
using
three
methodologies
–
traditional
autoregressive
distributed
lag
(ARDL)
Dynamic
ARDL
Frequency
domain
causality
test
across
period
1973–2023
ensure
robust
findings.
Findings
results
illustrate
that
constrain
global
supply.
final
relies
positive
interaction
term
between
international
economic
activity
from
one
side
negative
with
prices
other.
Likewise,
findings
show
threats
reduce
producing
oil.
Furthermore,
research
deliberates
policy
implications
stemming
these
Originality/value
Examining
existing
literature
reveals
gap
in
understanding
relationship
Most
studies
strand
focus
investigating
price
volatility.
