medRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: unknown
Published: March 9, 2023
Background Testing samples of waste water for markers infectious disease became a widespread method surveillance during the COVID-19 pandemic. While these data generally correlate well with other indicators national prevalence, that cover localised regions tend to be highly variable over short time scales. Methods We introduce procedure estimating realtime growth rate pathogen prevalence using series from wastewater sampling. The number copies target gene found in sample is modelled as time-dependent random whose distribution estimated maximum likelihood. output depends on hyperparameter controls sensitivity variability underlying data. apply this reporting N1 SARS-CoV-2 collected at treatment works across Scotland between February 2021 and 2023. Results real-time 121 sampling sites covering diverse range locations population sizes. find fitting natural determines its reliability detecting early stages an epidemic wave. Applying hospital admissions data, we changes are detected average 2 days earlier than Conclusion provide robust generate reliable estimates provides responsive situational awareness inform public health.
Language: Английский