Detecting, Attributing, and Projecting Global Marine Ecosystem and Fisheries Change: FishMIP 2.0 DOI Creative Commons
Julia L. Blanchard, Camilla Novaglio, Olivier Maury

et al.

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 12(12)

Published: Dec. 1, 2024

Abstract There is an urgent need for models that can robustly detect past and project future ecosystem changes risks to the services they provide people. The Fisheries Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) was established develop model ensembles projecting long‐term impacts of climate change on fisheries marine ecosystems while informing policy at spatio‐temporal scales relevant Inter‐Sectoral Impact (ISIMIP) framework. While contributing FishMIP have improved over time, large uncertainties in projections remain, particularly coastal shelf seas where most world's occur. Furthermore, previous impact been limited by a lack global standardized historical fishing data, low resolution processes, uneven capabilities across community dynamically fisheries. These features are needed evaluate how reliably ensemble captures states ‐ crucial step building confidence projections. To address these issues, we developed 2.0 comprising two‐track framework for: (a) evaluation attribution (b) socioeconomic scenario Key advances include forcing, which oceanographic not previously resolved, forcing test effects systematically models. toward detection changing enhanced relevance through increased Our results will help elucidate pathways achieving sustainable development goals.

Language: Английский

A systematic literature review of forecasting and predictive models for cyanobacteria blooms in freshwater lakes DOI
Benny Zuse Rousso, Edoardo Bertone, Rodney A. Stewart

et al.

Water Research, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 182, P. 115959 - 115959

Published: May 22, 2020

Language: Английский

Citations

233
Predicting lake water quality index with sensitivity-uncertainty analysis using deep learning algorithms DOI
Swapan Talukdar,

Shahfahad,

Shakeel Ahmed

et al.

Journal of Cleaner Production, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 406, P. 136885 - 136885

Published: April 3, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

58
Lake Water Temperature Modeling in an Era of Climate Change: Data Sources, Models, and Future Prospects DOI Creative Commons
Sebastiano Piccolroaz, Senlin Zhu, Robert Ladwig

et al.

Reviews of Geophysics, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 62(1)

Published: Feb. 11, 2024

Abstract Lake thermal dynamics have been considerably impacted by climate change, with potential adverse effects on aquatic ecosystems. To better understand the impacts of future change lake and related processes, use mathematical models is essential. In this study, we provide a comprehensive review water temperature modeling. We begin discussing physical concepts that regulate in lakes, which serve as primer for description process‐based models. then an overview different sources observational data, including situ monitoring satellite Earth observations, used field classify various available, discuss model performance, commonly performance metrics optimization methods. Finally, analyze emerging modeling approaches, forecasting, digital twins, combining deep learning, evaluating structural differences through ensemble modeling, adapted management, coupling This aimed at diverse group professionals working fields limnology hydrology, ecologists, biologists, physicists, engineers, remote sensing researchers from private public sectors who are interested understanding its applications.

Language: Английский

Citations

45
Prediction of weighted arithmetic water quality index for urban water quality using ensemble machine learning model DOI
Usman Mohseni,

Chaitanya B. Pande,

Subodh Chandra Pal

et al.

Chemosphere, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 352, P. 141393 - 141393

Published: Feb. 5, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

37
An Integrated Global‐To‐Regional Scale Workflow for Simulating Climate Change Impacts on Marine Ecosystems DOI Creative Commons
Kelly Ortega‐Cisneros, Denisse Fierro‐Arcos, Max Lindmark

et al.

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 13(2)

Published: Feb. 1, 2025

Abstract As the urgency to evaluate impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems increases, there is a need develop robust projections and improve uptake ecosystem model outputs in policy planning. Standardizing input output data crucial step evaluating communicating results, but can be challenging when using models with diverse structures, assumptions, that address region‐specific issues. We developed an implementation framework workflow standardize fishing forcings used by regional contributing Fisheries Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) facilitate comparative analyses across wide range regions, line FishMIP 3a protocol. applied our three case study areas‐models: Baltic Sea Mizer, Hawai'i‐based Longline fisheries therMizer, southern Benguela Atlantis models. then selected most steps illustrated their different types regions. Our adaptable models, from non‐spatially explicit spatially fully‐depth resolved include one or several fleets. This will development ensembles enhance future research applications, evaluation benchmarking, global‐to‐regional comparisons.

Language: Английский

Citations

2
High-Resolution Reanalysis of the Mediterranean Sea Biogeochemistry (1999–2019) DOI Creative Commons
Gianpiero Cossarini, Laura Feudale, Anna Teruzzi

et al.

Frontiers in Marine Science, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 8

Published: Nov. 29, 2021

Ocean reanalyses integrate models and observations to provide a continuous consistent reconstruction of the past physical biogeochemical ocean states variability. We present reanalysis Mediterranean Sea biogeochemistry at 1/24° resolution developed within Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) framework. The is based on Biogeochemical Flux Model (BFM) coupled with variational data assimilation scheme (3DVarBio) forced by Nucleus for European Modeling (NEMO)–OceanVar Centre medium-range weather forecasts (ECMWF) ERA5 atmospheric fields. Covering 1999–2019 period daily means 12 published validated state variables, assimilates surface chlorophyll integrates EMODnet as initial conditions, in addition considering World Atlas Atlantic boundary, CO 2 observations, yearly estimates riverine nutrient inputs. With use multiple observation sources (remote, situ , BGC-Argo), quality qualitatively quantitatively assessed three validation levels including evaluation variables fluxes several process-oriented metrics. results indicate an overall good skill simulating basin-wide values variability variables. uncertainty reproducing mesoscale weekly temporal scale satisfactory chlorophyll, nutrient, oxygen, carbonate system epipelagic layers, whereas increases few (i.e., oxygen ammonium) mesopelagic layers. vertical dynamics phytoplankton nitrate are positively evaluated specific metrics using BGC-Argo data. As consequence temperature salinity documented over last 20 years invasion, we observe signals indicating deoxygenation, alkalinity, dissolved inorganic carbon concentrations, decreases pH surface. new, high-resolution reanalysis, open freely available from Service, allows users different communities investigate spatial scales (from multiyear scales) interaction between processes shaping marine ecosystem functioning.

Language: Английский

Citations

97
Confronting Grand Challenges in environmental fluid mechanics DOI
Thierry Dauxois, Thomas Peacock, Péter Bauer

et al.

Physical Review Fluids, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 6(2)

Published: Feb. 8, 2021

Environmental fluid mechanics underlies a wealth of natural, industrial, and, by extension, societal challenges. As we strive toward more sustainable planet, there is wide range problems to be tackled, from fundamental advances in understanding and modeling stratified turbulence consequent mixing applied studies pollution transport the ocean, atmosphere, urban environments. The discussions outcomes recent Les Houches School Physics meeting are summarized here with intent providing resource for community going forward plan action coming decade.

Language: Английский

Citations

74
Environmental Flow Requirements of Estuaries: Providing Resilience to Current and Future Climate and Direct Anthropogenic Changes DOI Creative Commons
Daniel Chilton, David P. Hamilton, Ivan Nagelkerken

et al.

Frontiers in Environmental Science, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 9

Published: Nov. 17, 2021

Estuaries host unique biodiversity and deliver a range of ecosystem services at the interface between catchment ocean. They are also among most degraded ecosystems on Earth. Freshwater flow regimes drive ecological processes contributing to their economic value, but have been modified extensively in many systems by upstream water use. Knowledge freshwater requirements for estuaries (environmental flows or E-flows) lags behind that rivers floodplains. Generalising estuarine E-flows is further complicated responses appear be specific each system. Here we critically review E-flow 1) identify key (hydrodynamics, salinity regulation, sediment dynamics, nutrient cycling trophic transfer, connectivity) modulated regimes, 2) drivers (rainfall, runoff, temperature, sea level rise direct anthropogenic) generate changes magnitude, quality timing flows, 3) propose mitigation strategies (e.g., modification dam operations habitat restoration) buffer against risks altered build resilience indirect anthropogenic disturbances. These support re-establishment natural characteristics which foundational healthy ecosystems.

Language: Английский

Citations

72
Deterministic modelling of freshwater lakes and reservoirs: Current trends and recent progress DOI
Laura Melo Vieira Soares, Maria do Carmo Calijuri

Environmental Modelling & Software, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 144, P. 105143 - 105143

Published: July 16, 2021

Language: Английский

Citations

60
Making spatial-temporal marine ecosystem modelling better – A perspective DOI Creative Commons
Jeroen Steenbeek,

Joe Buszowski,

David Chagaris

et al.

Environmental Modelling & Software, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 145, P. 105209 - 105209

Published: Sept. 30, 2021

Marine Ecosystem Models (MEMs) provide a deeper understanding of marine ecosystem dynamics. The United Nations Decade Ocean Science for Sustainable Development has highlighted the need to deploy these complex mechanistic spatial-temporal models engage policy makers and society into dialogues towards sustainably managed oceans. From our shared perspective, MEMs remain underutilized because they still lack formal validation, calibration, uncertainty quantifications that undermines their credibility uptake in arenas. We explore why shortcomings exist how enable global modelling community increase MEMs' usefulness. identify clear gap between proposed solutions assess model skills, uncertainty, confidence actual systematic deployment. attribute this an underlying factor literature largely ignores: technical issues. conclude by proposing conceptual solution is cost-effective, scalable simple, already complicated enough.

Language: Английский

Citations

60