Counterfactual Conditionals as Arguments in Public Debates: The Case of the COVID-19 Pandemic

International Journal for the Semiotics of Law - Revue internationale de Sémiotique juridique, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: March 18, 2025

Language: Английский

---

SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology, kinetics, and evolution: A narrative review

Virulence, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 16(1)

Published: April 8, 2025

Since winter 2019, SARS-CoV-2 has emerged, spread, and evolved all around the globe. We explore 4 y of evolutionary epidemiology this virus, ranging from applied public health challenges to more conceptual biology perspectives. Through review, we first present spread lethality infections it causes, starting its emergence in Wuhan (China) initial epidemics world, compare virus other betacoronaviruses, focus on airborne transmission, containment strategies ("zero-COVID" vs. "herd immunity"), explain phylogeographical tracking, underline importance natural selection epidemics, mention within-host population dynamics. Finally, discuss how pandemic transformed (or should transform) surveillance prevention viral respiratory identify perspectives for research COVID-19.

Language: Английский

---

Controlling minor outbreaks is necessary to prepare for major pandemics

PLoS Biology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 22(12), P. e3002945 - e3002945

Published: Dec. 3, 2024

Ongoing influenza H5N1 outbreaks highlight the need for timely, scalable interventions that draw on lessons from COVID-19. In particular, successful pandemic preparedness requires early outbreak management, including effective responses targeting spillovers before there is evidence of human-to-human transmission.

Language: Английский

---

Robust uncertainty quantification in popular estimators of the instantaneous reproduction number

Published: Oct. 22, 2024

Abstract The instantaneous reproduction number ( R t ) is a widely used measure of the rate spread an infectious disease. Correct quantification uncertainty estimates crucial for making well-informed decisions. Popular methods estimating leverage smoothing techniques to distinguish signal from noise. Examples include EpiEstim and EpiFilter, each are controlled by single “smoothing parameter”, which traditionally chosen user. We demonstrate that values these parameters unknown vary markedly with epidemic dynamics. argue data-driven choices accurately representing about estimates. derive model likelihoods in both EpiFilter. Adopting flexible Bayesian framework, we use automatically marginalise out relevant models when fitting incidence time-series. Applying our methods, find default parameterisations can negatively impact inferences , delaying detection growth, misrepresenting (typically producing overconfident estimates), substantial implications public health decision-making. Our extensions mitigate issues, provide principled approach quantification, improve robustness inference real-time.

Language: Английский

---

When is the R = 1 epidemic threshold meaningful?

medRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Nov. 1, 2024

Abstract The effective reproduction number R is a predominant statistic for tracking the transmissibility of infectious diseases and informing public health policies. An estimated R=1 universally interpreted as indicating epidemic stability critical threshold deciding whether new infections will grow ( >1) or fall <1). We demonstrate that this threshold, which typically computed over coarse spatial scales, rarely signifies because those scales integrate from heterogeneous groups. Groups with falling rising counteract early-warning signals resurging groups are lost in noisy fluctuations stable large infection counts. prove an consistent vast space epidemiologically diverse scenarios, diminishing its predictive power policymaking value. show recent statistic, E , derived via experimental design theory provides more meaningful E=1 ) by rigorously constraining scenarios.

Language: Английский

---

A Method for Modeling the Transformation of Epidemic Scenarios during the Propagation of Waves of Convergent SARS-CoV-2 Variants

Technical Physics, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 69(10), P. 2551 - 2565

Published: Oct. 1, 2024

Language: Английский

---