Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 119(52)
Published: Dec. 19, 2022
Proceedings of the National Academy Sciences (PNAS), a peer reviewed journal (NAS) - an authoritative source high-impact, original research that broadly spans biological, physical, and social sciences.
Language: Английский
Forensic Science International Synergy, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 4, P. 100221 - 100221
Published: Jan. 1, 2022
This paper describes design and logistical aspects of a decision analysis study to assess the performance qualified firearms examiners working in accredited laboratories United States terms accuracy (error rate), repeatability, reproducibility decisions involving comparisons fired bullets cartridge cases. The purpose was validate current practice forensic discipline firearms/toolmarks (F/T) examination. It elicited error rate data by counting number false positive negative conclusions. Preceded experimental design, decisions, logistics described herein, testing ultimately administered 173 qualified, practicing F/T public private crime laboratories. first round evaluated accuracy, while two subsequent rounds repeatability examiner project expands on previous studies many challenging executing recommended double-blind format.
Language: Английский
Citations
23
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 120(20)
Published: May 8, 2023
This article presents key findings from a research project that evaluated the validity and probative value of cartridge-case comparisons under field-based conditions. Decisions provided by 228 trained firearm examiners across US showed forensic comparison is characterized low error rates. However, inconclusive decisions constituted over one-fifth all rendered, complicating evaluation technique's ability to yield unambiguously correct decisions. Specifically, restricting only conclusive identification elimination yielded true-positive true-negative rates exceeding 99%, but incorporating inconclusives caused these values drop 93.4% 63.5%, respectively. The asymmetric effect on two occurred because were rendered six times more frequently for different-source than same-source comparisons. Considering value, which decision's usefulness determining comparison's ground-truth state, predicted their corresponding states with near perfection. Likelihood ratios (LRs) further greatly increase odds state matching asserted decision. Inconclusive also possessed predicting status having LR indicating they status. study manipulated difficulty using models produce dissimilar markings. model chosen being difficult received comparisons, resulting in lower rate compared less model. Relatedly, exhibited strongly predictive
Language: Английский
Citations
14
Journal of Forensic Sciences, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 68(5), P. 1721 - 1740
Published: July 2, 2023
Abstract In a comprehensive study to assess various aspects of the performance qualified forensic firearms examiners, volunteer examiners compared both bullets and cartridge cases fired from three different types firearms. They rendered opinions on each comparison according Association Firearm & Tool Mark Examiners (AFTE) Range Conclusions, as Identification, Inconclusive (A, B, or C), Elimination, Unsuitable. this part study, sets used previously characterize overall accuracy were blindly resubmitted repeatability (105 examiners; 5700 comparisons cases) reproducibility (191 bullets, 193 cases; 5790 comparisons) examinations. Data gathered using prevailing AFTE also recategorized into two hypothetical scoring systems. Consistently positive differences between observed agreement expected indicate that exceed chance agreement. When averaged over cases, decisions (involving all five levels Range) was 78.3% for known matches 64.5% nonmatches. Similarly 67.3%% 36.5% For reproducibility, many disagreements definitive inconclusive category. Examiner are reliable trustworthy in sense identifications unlikely when comparing non‐matching items, eliminations they matching items.
Language: Английский
Citations
11
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 119(38)
Published: Sept. 13, 2022
Much of forensic practice today involves human decisions about the origins patterned sensory evidence, such as tool marks and fingerprints discovered at a crime scene. These are made by trained observers who compare evidential pattern to an exemplar produced suspected source evidence. The decision consists determination whether two patterns similar enough have come from same source. Although comparison disciplines for decades played valued role in criminal investigation prosecution, extremely high personal societal costs failure-the conviction innocent people-has elicited calls caution development better practices. been heard scientific community involved study information processing, which has begun offer much-needed perspectives on measurement, discrimination, classification context. Here I draw well-established theoretical empirical approach science illustrate vulnerabilities contemporary suggest specific strategies improvement.
Language: Английский
Citations
18
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 120(41)
Published: Oct. 2, 2023
When it comes to questions of fact in a legal context-particularly about measurement, association, and causality-courts should employ ordinary standards applied science. Applied sciences generally develop along path that proceeds from basic scientific discovery some natural process the formation theory how works what causes fail, development an invention intended assess, repair, or improve process, specification predictions instrument's actions and, finally, empirical validation determine instrument achieves effect. These elements are salient deeply embedded cultures medicine engineering, both which primarily grew sciences. However, inventions underlie most forensic science disciplines have few roots science, they do not sound theories justify their predicted results tests prove work as advertised. Inspired by "Bradford Hill Guidelines"-the dominant framework for causal inference epidemiology-we set forth four guidelines can be used establish validity comparison methods generally. This is checklist establishing threshold minimum validity, no magic formula determines when particular hypotheses passed necessary threshold. We illustrate these considering discipline firearm tool mark examination.
Language: Английский
Citations
6
Forensic Science International Synergy, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 4, P. 100228 - 100228
Published: Jan. 1, 2022
A sample (n = 79) of practicing firearm and toolmark examiners was queried about casework as well their views the potential role that statistics might play in future examinations expert witness testimony. Principal findings include: The modal response for time spent conducting bullet is 2–4 hours, cartridge casings 1–2 hours. average participant (median) makes an identification 65% casework, elimination 12% reports examination inconclusive 20% calls. vast majority work at laboratories permit eliminations when class characteristics agree. reported industry-wide false positive error rate 1%, though very few participants could name a study or give citation estimate. Qualitative responses were mixed.
Language: Английский
Citations
9
Forensic Science International, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 324, P. 110823 - 110823
Published: May 7, 2021
Language: Английский
Citations
11
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 121(24)
Published: May 23, 2024
The modern canon of open science consists five “schools thought” that justify unfettered access to the fruits scientific research: i) public engagement, ii) democratic right access, iii) efficiency knowledge gain, iv) shared technology, and v) better assessment impact. Here, we introduce a sixth school: due process. Due process under law includes “discovery” by defendant potentially exculpatory evidence held prosecution. When such is scientific, becomes Constitutional mandate for science. To illustrate significance this new school, present case study from forensics, which centers on federally funded investigation reports summary statistics indicating identification decisions made forensic firearms examiners are highly accurate. Because growing concern about validity methods, larger community called release complete analyzable dataset independent audit verification. Those in possession data opposed three years while were used prosecutors gain admissibility criminal trials. paint an incomplete picture hint at flaws experimental design analysis. Under circumstances, withholding underlying proceeding violates Following successful open-science model drug testing through “clinical trials,” place strict requirements timing release, argue registered “forensic trials” ensure transparency accountability.
Language: Английский
Citations
1
Royal Society Open Science, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 9(11)
Published: Nov. 1, 2022
Research assessing the validity and reliability of many forensic science disciplines has been published; however, quality this research varies depending on methodologies employed. This was a major point contention with United States' President's Council Advisors Science Technology, who recognized existing literature but found majority lacking because methodological issues. Questionable scientific have undermined community's ability to defend foundations examination protocols used examine evidence in criminal cases. Such failures significant legal implications. Registered reports, which strengthen laboratory protocols, can provide transparency, stronger foundation for science.
Language: Английский
Citations
3
Science & Justice, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 64(4), P. 421 - 442
Published: June 18, 2024
Language: Английский
Citations
0