Prediction of Potential Distribution and Response of Changium smyrnioides to Climate Change Based on Optimized MaxEnt Model DOI Creative Commons
Xingyu Zhu, Xin Jiang, Ying Chen

et al.

Plants, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 14(5), P. 743 - 743

Published: Feb. 28, 2025

Changium smyrnioides, an endangered herb known for its medicinal roots, contains essential amino acids that are vital human health but cannot be synthesized by the body. However, wild populations of this species have been steadily declining due to combined impacts climate change and anthropogenic activities. In study, we employed optimized MaxEnt model predict potential distribution C. smyrnioides under different scenarios evaluate responses change. Our findings demonstrated achieved optimal performance with a regularization multiplier 0.5 feature combination linear quadratic terms. Among environmental variables, three emerged as most critical factors shaping species’ distribution: elevation, precipitation driest month (bio14), isothermality (bio2/bio7 × 100, bio3). Currently, primary suitable habitats concentrated in Jiangsu Province, estimated 21,135 km² classified highly suitable. The analysis further indicated that, response rising temperatures, is likely shift northeastward across China. Notably, results suggested total area would increase over time projected scenarios. Based on predicted centroid migration habitats, Anhui Province was identified future conservation zone smyrnioides. This region could serve refuge, ensuring long-term survival changing climatic conditions. Overall, study provides key insights into ecological change, offering evidence-based guidance development effective strategies aimed at safeguarding herb.

Language: Английский

Prediction of Potential Distribution and Response of Changium smyrnioides to Climate Change Based on Optimized MaxEnt Model DOI Creative Commons
Xingyu Zhu, Xin Jiang, Ying Chen

et al.

Plants, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 14(5), P. 743 - 743

Published: Feb. 28, 2025

Changium smyrnioides, an endangered herb known for its medicinal roots, contains essential amino acids that are vital human health but cannot be synthesized by the body. However, wild populations of this species have been steadily declining due to combined impacts climate change and anthropogenic activities. In study, we employed optimized MaxEnt model predict potential distribution C. smyrnioides under different scenarios evaluate responses change. Our findings demonstrated achieved optimal performance with a regularization multiplier 0.5 feature combination linear quadratic terms. Among environmental variables, three emerged as most critical factors shaping species’ distribution: elevation, precipitation driest month (bio14), isothermality (bio2/bio7 × 100, bio3). Currently, primary suitable habitats concentrated in Jiangsu Province, estimated 21,135 km² classified highly suitable. The analysis further indicated that, response rising temperatures, is likely shift northeastward across China. Notably, results suggested total area would increase over time projected scenarios. Based on predicted centroid migration habitats, Anhui Province was identified future conservation zone smyrnioides. This region could serve refuge, ensuring long-term survival changing climatic conditions. Overall, study provides key insights into ecological change, offering evidence-based guidance development effective strategies aimed at safeguarding herb.

Language: Английский

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