Influence of Ukrainian refugees on the exchange rate and stock market in neighboring countries DOI
Cătălin Gheorghe, Oana Panazan

Studies in Economics and Finance, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Aug. 24, 2024

Purpose As the onset of Russia–Ukraine military conflict on February 24, 2022, individuals from Ukraine have been relocating in search safety and refuge. This study aims to investigate how influx Ukrainian refugees has impacted stock markets exchange rates Ukraine's neighboring states. Design/methodology/approach The authors focused countries that share a western border with received highest number refugees: Hungary, Poland, Romania Slovakia. analysis covered period April 24 December 31, 2022. After this period, influence is small, insignificant. Wavelet coherence, wavelet power spectrum time-varying parameter vector autoregressions method were used for data processing. Findings key finding are as follows: link exists between dynamics volatility indices rate host countries; was significant first weeks after start all analyzed states; recorded Hungary Poland; effect stronger than rates. Originality/value To best authors’ knowledge, it research presents impact analyzed.

Language: Английский

Redenomination risk connectedness among European sovereign bond markets DOI
Tarek Chebbi, Abdullah AlGhazali,

Walid Mensi

et al.

Studies in Economics and Finance, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Feb. 27, 2025

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the interconnectedness of redenomination risk premiums across four main European sovereign bond markets (France, Germany, Italy and Netherlands). Design/methodology/approach The authors used time-varying parameter vector autoregressions method achieve objectives. Findings study reveals that connectedness throughout Euro area is dynamic exhibits remarkable variations various crisis episodes, such as COVID-19 pandemic Russia–Ukraine tensions. In addition, analysis uncovers significant bilateral connections between countries. Furthermore, research finds spillovers from US dollar premium (USDRP) are greater than those euro (ERP) currency (CRP). However, during Ukraine–Russia tensions, USDRP stronger ERP CRP. On other hand, CRP higher pandemic. Importantly, this demonstrates countries play a role both shock transmitters receivers, switching alternatively. Originality/value contributes related literature by exploring markets. Specifically, we rely on USDRP, These findings have serious implications for portfolio management.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine wars on the asymmetric multifractals of defense stocks: a novel A-MFDFA method DOI
Khalid Khan, Adnan Khurshid, Javier Cifuentes‐Faura

et al.

Defence and Peace Economics, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 1 - 20

Published: April 29, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Oil price, climate policy uncertainty, sustainable development, US dollar in an era of global conflict: Based on dynamic time-frequency spillover analysis DOI
Kai-Hua Wang, Lili Liu, Hongwen Liu

et al.

Energy & Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Sept. 13, 2024

This paper uses time-frequency domain techniques to study the dynamic spillover relationship among oil price, climate risk, sustainable development, and US dollar in an era of global conflict. The findings demonstrate a high overall level, indicating that risk transmission is prone occur variables. investigation indicates influence thus frequency-dependent higher at frequencies. net reveal geopolitical has certain degree other variables, majority this occurs near run. In addition, prices development are major recipients dollar, playing important role preventing inflation risks. makes more comprehensive systematic discussion It presents different impacts on crude markets, policy making, multiple time scales. These conclusions can prevent resolve cessation cooperation price shocks induced by risks, provide valuable enlightenment for realizing development. Countries should attach importance multi-faceted impact pay consideration environment policy, jointly contribute

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Neural networks and ARMA-GARCH models for foreign exchange risk measurement and assessment DOI Creative Commons

Elysee Nsengiyumva,

Joseph Mung’atu,

Idrissa Kayijuka

et al.

Cogent Economics & Finance, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 12(1)

Published: Nov. 4, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Assessing the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war and COVID-19 on selected European currencies and key commodities DOI Creative Commons
Florin Aliu, Yelyzaveta Apanovych, Ujkan Q. Bajra

et al.

Journal of Business Economics and Management, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 25(5), P. 1097 - 1119

Published: Nov. 18, 2024

This study measures the spillover effects of Russia-Ukraine war and COVID-19 pandemic on currency pairs as Russian ruble, Czech koruna, Polish zloty, Hungarian forint, Swedish krona, Bulgarian lev, Danish krone, Romanian leu, Ukrainian hryvnia, Turkish Lira. By employing TVP-VAR model we investigate dynamic connectedness among these currencies key energy agricultural commodities. The data series encompasses two consecutive non-economic shocks – Ukraine a preceding period general stability during 2018 2019. importance geopolitical context in shaping dynamics was present countries with heavy dependence gas. findings indicate limited direct impact commodity price fluctuations value currencies. At same time, decisions primarily related to Ruble dependencies significantly impacted their valuation. reveals complexity influence risks global health crises exchange rate volatility dependencies.

Language: Английский

Citations

1
The Impact of the Measure Used to Calculate the Distance between Exchange Rate Time Series on the Topological Structure of the Currency Network DOI Creative Commons
Joanna Andrzejak, Leszek J. Chmielewski, Joanna Landmesser

et al.

Entropy, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 26(4), P. 279 - 279

Published: March 25, 2024

Structural properties of the currency market were examined with use topological networks. Relationships between currencies analyzed by constructing minimal spanning trees (MSTs). The dissimilarities time series returns measured in various ways: applying Euclidean distance, Pearson’s linear correlation coefficient, Spearman’s rank Kendall’s partial correlation, dynamic warping measure, and Kullback–Leibler relative entropy. For constructed MSTs, their characteristics conclusions drawn regarding influence dissimilarity measure used. It turned out that strength most types correlations was highly dependent on choice numeraire currency, while invariant this respect. can be stated a network built basis provides more adequate illustration pairwise relationships foreign exchange market. data for quotations 37 important world four precious metals period from 1 January 2019 to 31 December 2022 outbreak COVID-19 pandemic 2020 Russia’s invasion Ukraine triggered changes topology network. As result these crises, average distances tree nodes decreased centralization graphs increased. Our results confirm are often pegged other due countries’ geographic locations economic ties. detected structures useful descriptions market, help stable portfolio rates, valuable tool searching factors influencing specific groups countries.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine and Implications for the Ukrainian Hryvnia and the Russian Ruble DOI Open Access

Hoje Jo,

Olivia Venderby

International Journal of Financial Research, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(3), P. 54 - 54

Published: June 25, 2024

This paper examines the interest rates, expected spot and inflation rates of Ukrainian Hryvnia (₴) to Russian Ruble (₽). Our methodology analyzes international parity relationships, including Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) International Fisher Effect (IFE). Focusing on four years from two before Russia’s initial invasion Ukraine February 24, 2022, i.e., 2, 2020 post-conflict up December 2023, we hypothesize that geopolitical tensions induced by have led significant fluctuations high volatility these currencies. Additionally, propose economic consequences invasion, such as disruptions trade food supply shortages, may further affect variables increasing domestic money financing, therefore triggering higher rates. analyses indicate predicted using relationships suggest weakening after Russia-Ukraine conflict. findings shed light magnitude direction currency movements, providing insights into ramifications Specifically, aim elucidate how has impacted region's exchange stability.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Influence of Ukrainian refugees on the exchange rate and stock market in neighboring countries DOI
Cătălin Gheorghe, Oana Panazan

Studies in Economics and Finance, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Aug. 24, 2024

Purpose As the onset of Russia–Ukraine military conflict on February 24, 2022, individuals from Ukraine have been relocating in search safety and refuge. This study aims to investigate how influx Ukrainian refugees has impacted stock markets exchange rates Ukraine's neighboring states. Design/methodology/approach The authors focused countries that share a western border with received highest number refugees: Hungary, Poland, Romania Slovakia. analysis covered period April 24 December 31, 2022. After this period, influence is small, insignificant. Wavelet coherence, wavelet power spectrum time-varying parameter vector autoregressions method were used for data processing. Findings key finding are as follows: link exists between dynamics volatility indices rate host countries; was significant first weeks after start all analyzed states; recorded Hungary Poland; effect stronger than rates. Originality/value To best authors’ knowledge, it research presents impact analyzed.

Language: Английский

Citations

0