Evaluation and Projection of CMIP6 Simulations of Climate Variables in the Rift Valley Lakes Basin, Ethiopia
Abstract
The
objective
of
this
study
is
to
evaluate
the
performance
twenty-eight
bias-corrected
GCMs
and
project
changes
in
climate
variables
using
CMIP6
from
reference
period
(1985–2014),
two
future
periods
(2035–2064
2065–2094)
under
three
Shared
Socioeconomic
Pathways
(SSP2-4.5,
SSP3-7.0
SSP5-8.5).
Comprehensive
rating
metric
(CRM)
based
on
seven
statistical
metrics
was
used
GCMs.
multi-model
mean
ensemble
(MMME)
four
carefully
selected
best
performing
CMIP6-GCMs
for
each
were
projection.
Considering
respective
MMMEs,
projected
precipitation,
maximum
temperature
(Tmax),
minimum
(Tmin),
relative
humidity
(hurs),
will
increase,
but
solar
radiation
(rsds)
decline,
all
SSPs
both
as
response
global
warming.
precipitation
increase
may
augment
water
availability
Rift
valley
Lakes
Basin
(RVLB).
However,
more
intense
frequent
heavy
with
short-duration
lead
flash
floods
landslides
damage
crops
infrastructures.
In
addition,
raise
Tmax,
Tmin
windspeed
high
evapotranspiration
demand,
recurrent
drought,
insecurity.
To
properly
comprehend
respond
appropriately,
research
needed
determine
how
these
affect
sustainable
resources
management
security
RVLB.
Research Square (Research Square), Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown
Published: Dec. 12, 2024
Language: Английский