Journal of Economic Studies, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: June 1, 2025

Purpose The study investigates the impacts of climate change on global agricultural trade. It aims to analyze how temperature and precipitation, along with proposed macroeconomic factors such as productivity, tariff rate, exchange price technological innovations influence worldwide trade balance products. Design/methodology/approach research employs Panel Quantile ARDL model using a two-step ECM pooled means group (PMG) specification technique. Data spanning 23 years (2000–2022) from 166 countries is analyzed, incorporating climatic variables (temperature precipitation) economic determine their effects Findings reveals that average annual significantly affects trade, positive impact exports up certain threshold, beyond which relationship becomes detrimental. This indicates nonlinear, inverted U-shaped relationship, where regions moderate increases can benefit, but excessive warming harms performance. Agricultural total factor productivity consistently enhance exports, stronger observed in higher export-to-import ratios. On other hand, like rates unfavorable relative world prices hinder competitiveness, especially net-exporting regions. Precipitation levels alone were found have an insignificant effect, suggesting more critical variable influencing dynamics. Practical implications Policymakers should promote precision agriculture, boost adjust policies strengthen export performance food security. Given shocks affect net-importing differently, tailored strategies are essential ensure resilience equity. Originality/value uniquely applies global-level quantitative analysis change, introducing quadratic between addresses gaps existing literature by extensive, real-world data rather than projections.

Language: Английский