HCV transmission model with protection awareness in an SEACTR community

Infectious Disease Modelling, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 10(2), P. 559 - 570

Published: Jan. 7, 2025

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a bloodborne that causes both acute and chronic hepatitis with the severity from mild illness to liver cirrhosis cancer. As one of major infectious diseases in China, monthly surveillance data Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control Prevention shows increasing tendency 2004 2011, stable 2012 2016, declining 2017 2022. The 2004-2022 HCV infection Province affected by nation-wide main control measures Chinese government, because no are modified 2020 2022 during prevalence COVID-19 Province. SEACTR (the susceptible, exposed, acutely infected, chronically treated, recovered) models protection awareness proposed. next generation matrix method used compute basic reproduction number toy model dynamic analysis produce stochastic model. least squares perform optimal fitting against data. positive preserving truncated Euler-Maruyama applied positivity numerical simulations. performed using provided sensitivities efficiency conversion rate analyzed. numbers scale (single-measure, double-measure, triple-measure, none-measure) compared impacts on exposed population, infected treated population predictions 2023 2035 conducted. mainly depends rate, which most important contributor. show tendencies phases, indicate prevention has achieved remarkable achievement. 2023-2035 grow slowly due approximately 19-109 infections. overall growth consistent elimination objective.

Language: Английский

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Prediction of Severe Fever with Thrombocytopenia Syndrome Under Future Climate Scenarios in Chuzhou, China

Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Feb. 21, 2025

Objective: Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) poses a significant public health concern in China and has the potential for severe morbidity mortality. Previous studies on SFTS have focused primarily analyzing its incidence under existing climate conditions, often overlooking impacts of future change disease's distribution. Moreover, key factors influencing transmission identified prior research are limited lack comprehensive consideration multiple environmental socioeconomic specific regions. Methods: In this study, by utilizing case data from Chuzhou city alongside multisource variables, maximum entropy ecological niche (MaxEnt) model was employed to identify climatic distribution SFTS. Risk areas were projected present scenarios, including shared pathway (SSP)126, SSP245, SSP370, SSP585. Results: The results indicate that (1) precipitation driest quarter, elevation, wettest month most critical variables; (2) risk situated predominantly central hilly region, total area medium- high-risk zones measuring 5731.86 km2, which accounts 42.67% area; (3) central-south southwestern regions emerge as areas, reaching 6417.8398 2030s SSP585 scenario; (4) current epicenter is located Zhang Baling town (118°12'23″E, 32°28'56″N). Under SSP126 SSP370 exhibits minimal movement, whereas shifts occur SSP245 scenarios. Conclusion: These findings provide essential insights formulating scientifically grounded prevention control strategies against city.

Language: Английский

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Evolutionary invasion model of the viral virulence in a symptom-dependent SIS community

Applied Mathematical Modelling, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 116152 - 116152

Published: April 1, 2025

Language: Английский

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Dynamics of a Dengue Transmission Model with Multiple Stages and Fluctuations

Mathematics, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 12(16), P. 2491 - 2491

Published: Aug. 12, 2024

A vector–host model of dengue with multiple stages and independent fluctuations is investigated in this paper. Firstly, the existence uniqueness positive solution are shown by contradiction. When death rates aquatic mosquitoes, adult human beings respectively control intensities white noises, if R0s>1, then persistence mean for both infective mosquitoes derived. R0s>1 valid, stationary distribution derived through constructing several appropriate Lyapunov functions. If noises controlled φ<0 extinction obtained applying comparison theorem ergodic theorem. Further, main findings verified numerical simulations using preserving truncated Euler–Maruyama method (PPTEM). Moreover, on infection scale Fuzhou City were conducted surveillance data. The results indicate that decrease transfer proportion from to reduces virus, affect value critical threshold R0s. controls effective routes decision-makers Chinese mainland against spread dengue.

Language: Английский

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Dynamics of an SVEIR transmission model with protection awareness and two strains

Infectious Disease Modelling, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 10(1), P. 207 - 228

Published: Oct. 10, 2024

As of May 2024, the main strains COVID-19 caused hundreds millions infection cases and deaths worldwide. In this study, we consider epidemics with in Chinese mainland. We study complex interactions among hosts, non-pharmaceutical interventions, vaccinations for by a differential equation model called SVEIR. The disease transmission incorporates two protection awareness susceptible population. Results show that plays crucial role against population, vaccines are effective circulation earlier strains, but ineffective emerging strains. By using next generation matrix method, basic reproduction number SVEIR is firstly obtained. Our analysis Hurwitz criterion LaSalle's invariance principle shows free-equilibrium point locally globally asymptotically stable when threshold value below one. existences endemic equilibrium points also established, global asymptotic stabilities analyzed Lyapunov function method. Further, confirmed to satisfy competitive exclusion, which strain larger dominant. Numerically, surveillance data Omicron XBB split cubic spline interpolation fitting curves plotted least-squares method from MATLAB. results indicate dominates study. Moreover, sensitivity key parameters performed PRCC. numerical simulations imply combination control strategy positively impacts on scale than what separate does, time producing public creates less scale, further increment reduces scale. Therefore, policymakers local government suggested concern changes public.

Language: Английский

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Estimation Methods of Reproduction Numbers for Epidemics of Varying Strains of COVID-19

Journal of Biosafety and Biosecurity, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 6(4), P. 265 - 270

Published: Nov. 7, 2024

Language: Английский

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Dynamical analysis on symptom-based SEMIR compartmental model with age groups

Journal of Applied Mathematics and Computing, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Nov. 8, 2024

Language: Английский

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