Long-term probabilistic forecasts of activity mitigation in English hospitals: a national elicitation exercise providing an outside view based on judgements of experts in support of the New Hospital Programme DOI Creative Commons
Mohammed Amin Mohammed,

Thomas Jemmett,

Josh Cook

et al.

BMJ Open, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 14(10), P. e084632 - e084632

Published: Oct. 1, 2024

The planning process for a new hospital relies on assumptions about future levels of demand. Typically, such are characterised by point estimates, the flaw-of-averages, base-rate neglect and overoptimism from an inside view. To counteract these limitations, we elicited outside view probabilistic forecasts based judgements experts extent to which various types activity might be mitigated over 20 years, in support New Hospital Programme (NHP) English National Health Service.

Language: Английский

Prevalence and Incidence of Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder in Denmark. A National Register‐Based Open Cohort Study DOI Creative Commons
Simon Grøntved, Kathrine Hald, Christina Mohr Jensen

et al.

Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: March 27, 2025

Rises in prevalence and incidence of the neurodevelopmental disorder Attention-deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) have been reported globally estimated Denmark previously. Nevertheless, differences methodology hinder an assessment temporal evolution ADHD based on published literature. The aim this study was to consistently calculate yearly proportions use medication from 2000 2022. We conducted open cohort using register data covering entire Danish population. defined as either having a hospital diagnosis (ICD-10: F90.0, F90.1, F90.8, or F98.8), redeemed prescription for medication. Of included 7,748,837 persons, 2.52% had ADHD, whom 58.33% were males. has increased 0.10% 3.03% Specifically 18-27-year-olds, 8.16% males 6.12% females year For incidence, same age group peaked within 2022 at 1.10%, whereas male highest 6-18-year-olds, peaking 0.94%. Total population also increased. Methylphenidate used by 97.58% medicated patients 70.60% Lisdexamphetamine second most common 2022, where 24.03% prescription. Incidence calculated specifically may not be directly generalizable other countries. throughout past two decades. main contribution increase is females, especially young recent years 2020-2022. drug prescribed, though lisdexamphetamine years.

Language: Английский

Citations

1

Statistical Analysis and Forecasts of Performance Indicators in the Romanian Healthcare System DOI Open Access
Cristian Drăgan, Laurențiu Mihai, Ana-Maria Camelia Popescu

et al.

Healthcare, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 13(2), P. 102 - 102

Published: Jan. 7, 2025

Globally, healthcare systems face challenges in optimizing performance, particularly the wake of COVID-19 pandemic. This study focuses on analysis and forecasting key performance indicators (KPIs) for County Emergency Clinical Hospital Craiova, Romania. The evaluates such as average length stay (ALoS), bed occupancy rate (BOR), number cases (NC), case mix index (CMI), cost per hospitalization (ACH), providing insight into their dynamics future trends. We performed statistical analyses quarterly data from 2010 to 2023, employing descriptive statistics stationarity tests (e.g., Dickey-Fuller), using ARIMA models forecast each KPI, ensuring model validation through autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity, stationarity. selection prioritized Akaike Schwarz criteria robustness. findings reveal that ALoS BOR demonstrate seasonality are influenced by colder months, it is expected will stabilize around five days 2025. Moreover, we predict range between 46 52%, reflecting these seasonal variations. NC forecasts indicate a post-pandemic recovery but below pre-pandemic levels, project CMI at 1.54, suggesting return consistent complexity. ACH showed significant growth, fourth quarter, driven inflation costs, projected reach more than RON 3000 highlights utility KPIs, enabling proactive resource planning decision-making. underscore impact economic factors hospital operations, offering valuable insights improving efficiency adapting challenges.

Language: Английский

Citations

0

Long-term probabilistic forecasts of activity mitigation in English hospitals: a national elicitation exercise providing an outside view based on judgements of experts in support of the New Hospital Programme DOI Creative Commons
Mohammed Amin Mohammed,

Thomas Jemmett,

Josh Cook

et al.

BMJ Open, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 14(10), P. e084632 - e084632

Published: Oct. 1, 2024

The planning process for a new hospital relies on assumptions about future levels of demand. Typically, such are characterised by point estimates, the flaw-of-averages, base-rate neglect and overoptimism from an inside view. To counteract these limitations, we elicited outside view probabilistic forecasts based judgements experts extent to which various types activity might be mitigated over 20 years, in support New Hospital Programme (NHP) English National Health Service.

Language: Английский

Citations

0