Monte Carlo Simulations for Resolving Verifiability Paradoxes in Forecast Risk Management and Corporate Treasury Applications
International Journal of Financial Studies,
Journal Year:
2025,
Volume and Issue:
13(2), P. 49 - 49
Published: April 1, 2025
Forecast
risk
management
is
central
to
the
financial
process.
This
study
aims
apply
Monte
Carlo
simulation
solve
three
classic
probabilistic
paradoxes
and
discuss
their
implementation
in
corporate
management.
The
article
presents
as
an
advanced
tool
for
processes.
method
allows
a
comprehensive
analysis
of
forecasts,
making
it
possible
assess
potential
errors
cash
flow
forecasts
predict
value
treasury
growth
under
various
future
scenarios.
In
investment
decision-making
process,
supports
evaluation
effectiveness
projects
by
calculating
expected
net
identifying
risks
associated
with
investments,
allowing
more
informed
decisions
be
made
project
implementation.
used
reducing
volatility,
which
contributes
lowering
cost
capital
increasing
company.
Simulation
also
enables
accurate
liquidity
planning,
including
forecasting
availability
determining
appropriate
reserves
based
on
probability
distributions.
credit
interest
rate
risk,
enabling
impact
economic
scenarios
company’s
obligations.
context
strategic
extension
decision
tree
analysis,
where
subsequent
are
results
earlier
ones.
Creating
models
simulations
makes
take
into
account
random
variables
key
indicators,
such
free
(FCF).
Compared
traditional
methods,
offers
detailed
precise
approach
decision-making,
providing
companies
vital
information
uncertainty.
emphasizes
that
use
not
only
enhances
management,
but
long-term
value.
entire
process
able
move
predicting
flows
discounted
at
capital.
We
both
numerical
analytical
methods
veridical
paradoxes.
Veridical
type
paradox
result
counterintuitive,
turns
out
true
after
careful
examination.
means
although
initial
reasoning
may
lead
wrong
conclusion,
correct
mathematical
or
logical
confirms
correctness
results.
An
example
Monty
Hall’s
problem,
intuitive
answer
suggests
equal
success,
while
shows
changing
increases
chances
winning.
method.
following
were
used:
conditional
probability,
Bayes’
rule
multiple
conditions.
solved
truth-type
discovered
why
Hall
problem
was
so
widely
discussed
1990s.
differentiated
problems
using
different
numbers
doors
prizes.
Language: Английский
Can Inclusive Finance Curb Sustainability Regulatory Risk for Corporations?
Research in International Business and Finance,
Journal Year:
2025,
Volume and Issue:
unknown, P. 102901 - 102901
Published: April 1, 2025
Language: Английский
Economy or Climate? Impact of Policy Uncertainty on Price Volatility of China’s Carbon Emission Trading Markets
Energies,
Journal Year:
2025,
Volume and Issue:
18(10), P. 2448 - 2448
Published: May 10, 2025
Based
on
the
economic
and
climate
policy
uncertainty
index
price
data
of
major
carbon
emission
trading
markets
from
May
2014
to
August
2023,
this
paper
uses
generalized
autoregressive
conditional
heteroskedasticity
mixing
sampling
(GARCH-MIDAS)
model
analyze
impact
market
volatility.
The
results
indicate
following:
(1)
volatility
in
Hubei
is
influenced
by
both
uncertainties,
while
Guangdong
only
affected
uncertainty,
Shenzhen
uncertainty.
(2)
Before
establishment
national
market,
prices
were
impacted
uncertainties.
(3)
On
contrary,
after
was
not
above
research
conclusions
are
helpful
for
regulatory
agencies
policymakers
assess
future
direction
pilot
provide
an
empirical
basis
preventing
resolving
risks.
At
same
time,
proposed
GARCH-MIDAS
effectively
solves
inconsistent
frequency
problem
volatility,
providing
a
new
perspective
study
factors
affecting
Language: Английский