
medRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: unknown
Published: Dec. 4, 2023
Abstract This analysis estimates the economic and clinical impact of a Moderna updated COVID-19 mRNA Fall 2023 vaccine for adults ≥18 years in Japan. A previously developed Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model with 1-year analytic time horizon (September 2023-August 2024) consequences decision tree were used to estimate symptomatic infections, COVID-19–related hospitalizations, deaths, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs, incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) versus no additional vaccination, Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. The is predicted prevent 7.2 million 272,100 hospitalizations 25,600 related deaths In base case (healthcare perspective), ICER was ¥1,300,000/QALY gained ($9,400 USD/QALY gained). Sensitivity analyses suggest results are most affected by incidence, initial effectiveness (VE), VE waning against infection. Assuming relative between both bivalent vaccines apply vaccines, suggests version will an 1,100,000 27,100 2,600 compared expected be highly cost-effective at ¥5 willingness-to-pay threshold across wide range scenarios.
Language: Английский