Simulating the impact of land use change on ecosystem services in agricultural production areas with multiple scenarios considering ecosystem service richness

Journal of Cleaner Production, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 397, P. 136485 - 136485

Published: Feb. 22, 2023

Language: Английский

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Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use Change and Ecosystem Service Value Based on the Markov–FLUS Model in Ezhou City, China

Sustainability, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 16(14), P. 6237 - 6237

Published: July 22, 2024

Changes in land use patterns, types, and intensities significantly impact ecosystem services. This study follows the time series logic from history to expected future investigate spatial temporal characteristics of changes Ezhou their potential impacts on services value (ESV). The results show that Markov–FLUS model has strong applicability predicting pattern use, with a Kappa coefficient 0.9433 FoM 0.1080. Between 2000 2020, construction expanded continuously, while water area remained relatively stable, other types experienced varying degrees contraction. Notably, compared 2000, it by 70.99% 2020. Moreover, watershed 9.30% 2010, but there was very little change following 10 years. Under three scenarios, significant differences were observed City, driven human activities, particularly expansion land. In inertial development scenario, 313.39 km2 2030, representing 38.30% increase Conversely, under farmland protection increased 237.66 km2, 4.89% rise However, ecological priority 253.59 10.13% Compared ESV losses inertia scenarios USD 4497.71 1072.23, respectively, 2030. scenario 2749.09, emphasizing importance prioritizing City’s development. may provide new clues for formulation regional strategies sustainable restoration.

Language: Английский

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Ecosystem services dynamics and their influencing factors: Synergies/tradeoffs interactions and implications, the case of upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 938, P. 173524 - 173524

Published: May 25, 2024

Language: Английский

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Assessing the relative contributions, combined effects and multiscale uncertainty of future land use and climate change on water-related ecosystem services in Southwest China using a novel integrated modelling framework

Sustainable Cities and Society, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 106, P. 105400 - 105400

Published: April 1, 2024

Language: Английский

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Analysis and prediction of the impact of land use/cover change on ecosystem services value in Gansu province, China

Ecological Indicators, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 154, P. 110868 - 110868

Published: Aug. 30, 2023

The effects of land use/cover change (LUCC) on the spatial distribution and ecosystem service value (ESV) are still ambiguous, cannot effectively guide formulation use (LU) management policies based concept harmonious development. Therefore, LUCC data from 1980 to 2020, this study adopted MCE-CA-Markov model simulate predict under Business As Usual (BAU) Ecological Development Priority (EDP) scenarios in 2030 2050. historical future ESVs as well ESV were calculated Gansu province, Northwest China. results showed that LU province changed greatly between with an increase Forest (568.62 km2), medium- high-coverage grassland (1517.58 Construction (2264.58 a decrease Farmland (-730.17 km2) Unused (-2858.58 resulting 8.162 billion CNY total ESV. From 2020 2050, EDP scenario will be more conducive ESV, increment (52.765 CNY) being much higher than BAU (3.885 CNY). growth mainly result expansion Forest, Water, Grassland, accounting for 55.4%, 48.6%, 19.1% increment, respectively, while attributed changes land, −16.2% −10.8% respectively. have certain reference structure optimization ecological benefit northwest

Language: Английский

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Impacts of land use transitions on ecosystem services: A research framework coupled with structure, function, and dynamics

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 901, P. 166366 - 166366

Published: Aug. 18, 2023

Language: Английский

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Modelling of soil erosion susceptibility incorporating sediment connectivity and export at landscape scale using integrated machine learning, InVEST-SDR and Fragstats

Journal of Environmental Management, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 353, P. 120164 - 120164

Published: Jan. 31, 2024

Language: Английский

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Impacts of multi-scenario land use change on ecosystem services and ecological security pattern: A case study of the Yellow River Delta

Research in Cold and Arid Regions, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 16(1), P. 30 - 44

Published: Feb. 1, 2024

The Yellow River Delta (YRD), a critical economic zone along China's eastern coast, also functions as vital ecological reserve in the lower River. Amidst rapid industrialization and urbanization, region has witnessed significant land use/cover changes (LUCC), impacting ecosystem services (ES) security patterns (ESP). Investigating LUCC's effects on ES ESP YRD is crucial for sustainable development. This study utilized PLUS model to simulate 2030 use scenarios, including natural development (NDS), (EDS), protection scenarios (EPS). Subsequently, InVEST circuit theory were applied assess under varying LUCC from 2010 2030. Findings indicate: (1) Notable 2030, marked by decreasing cropland increasing construction water bodies. (2) From 2020, improvements observed carbon storage, yield, soil retention, habitat quality, whereas 2020–2030 saw increases yield retention but declines quality storage. Among EPS showed superior performance all four ES. (3) Between sources, corridors, pinchpoints expanded, displaying spatial heterogeneity. scenario yielded most substantial pinchpoints, totaling 582.89 km2, 645.03 64.43 respectively. highlights importance of EPS, offering insightful scientific guidance YRD's

Language: Английский

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Multi-scenario simulation and evaluation of the impacts of land use change on ecosystem service values in the Chishui River Basin of Guizhou Province, China

Ecological Indicators, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 163, P. 112078 - 112078

Published: April 29, 2024

Changes in land-use patterns are the main driving factors of ecosystem service values (ESVs). The quantitative evaluation ESVs is significant for sustainable development ecologically fragile areas. In this study, Chishui River Basin (CRB) China was selected as study region, and an intensity map (IM) used to analyze transformation land use/land cover (LULC). modified equivalent coefficient value method evaluate based on 2000, 2010, 2020 use datasets. spatial temporal distributions ESV its response changes LULC were analyzed using Getis-Ord Gi* statistical Spearman's rank correlation analysis. Moreover, over next 30 years four scenarios simulated Markov-PLUS model. following results obtained: 1) farmland forestland dominant categories, that pattern dramatically changed area; 2) total CRB decreased significantly from 23.21 billion yuan 2000 22.29 2020; 3) ecological conservation scenario promoted ESV, town more conducive urbanization process. Therefore, although showed a decreasing slowly increasing trend context series restoration measures, scientific protection policies must be continuously implemented achieve harmony between improvement development. Our provide important information making decisions facilitating protected basins.

Language: Английский

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Spatiotemporal differentiation and the coupling analysis of ecosystem service value with land use change in Hubei Province, China

Ecological Indicators, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 145, P. 109693 - 109693

Published: Nov. 18, 2022

Rapid urbanization has exacerbated land use transformation, which in turn affected ecosystem service value (ESV). Clarifying the spatial association between change (LUC) and ESV is of relevance to development policies for sustainable (ES) management. In this paper, taking Hubei Province as an example, biomass coefficient, resource scarcity coefficient socioeconomic adjustment are introduced improve assessment model, then spatiotemporal dynamics from 2000 2020 analyzed. Furthermore, coupling coordination degree (CCD) intensity was explored through a CCD model. The results show that (1) changed significantly 2020, mainly cropland built-up land. (2) showed fluctuating upward trend, with increase 71.30%, differences generally decreased, showing pattern “low center high surroundings”. (3) All individual ESVs first decreased increased, regulating services supporting contributing more hydrological regulation, maintenance biodiversity soil conservation being top three functions value. (4) its cities (prefecture forest area) at lowest highest values 2005 respectively. This paper revealed evolution process LUC their coordinated relationship, can provide effective guidance formulation interzonal ES reconcile conflicts

Language: Английский

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