Assessing ecological risk on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau based on future land use scenarios and ecosystem service values DOI Creative Commons
Shidong Zhang, Tong Wu, Luo Guo

et al.

Ecological Indicators, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 154, P. 110769 - 110769

Published: Aug. 8, 2023

As one of the world's critical ecological regions – often called "Third Pole" Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) has outstanding ecosystem service values (ESV). However, its variable climate and fragile environmental conditions make it vulnerable to disturbance by human activities. Based on land use data from 2000, 2010, 2020, we developed three simulated scenarios distribution QTP: business as usual (BAU), farmland protection (FP), (EP). Finally, employed Sharpe Index evaluate risk across QTP. The results showed that 2000 change was mainly in form conversion grassland unused land, totaling an area 63,717 km2. value increasing trend, US$752.6 billion US$783.0 2010 2020. simulation revealed significant differences. Farmland shows a declining trend both EP BAU scenarios, while exhibiting FP scenario. Forest plateau experiences decreasing but increase scenario, predominantly southeastern region, including Sichuan Yunnan provinces. assessment indicate eastern region higher compared western highlighting priority for control. expansion built-up had impacts regional risk. Integrating outcomes with planning identify focal areas can provide guidance sustainable development this globally important ecoregion.

Language: Английский

Spatiotemporal dynamics of wetlands and their future multi-scenario simulation in the Yellow River Delta, China DOI
Bowei Yu,

Yongge Zang,

Chunsheng Wu

et al.

Journal of Environmental Management, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 353, P. 120193 - 120193

Published: Feb. 1, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

23
Projecting LUCC dynamics and ecosystem services in an emerging urban agglomeration under SSP-RCP scenarios and their management implications DOI

Qiaobin Chen,

Ying Ning

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 949, P. 175100 - 175100

Published: July 29, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

16
Carbon balance dynamic evolution and simulation coupling economic development and ecological protection: a case study of Jiangxi Province at county scale from 2000–2030 DOI Creative Commons

Yuliang Deng,

Min Huang, Daohong Gong

et al.

International Journal of Digital Earth, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 18(1)

Published: Jan. 3, 2025

In addressing global climate change and promoting economic growth, achieving a comprehensive carbon balance at the county level is vital for sustainable development. However, most studies focus on between emissions sequestration (CESB), neglecting intricate ecological (EECB) this scale. This study introduces an analytical framework that couples development with protection by using coupling coordination degree analysis, zoning, Markov-PLUS model. Taking Jiangxi Province as case study, we evaluate spatio-temporal dynamics of from 2000–2020 predict future trends 2030 under four potential scenarios. Results reveal significant regional variations in CESB over two decades, which primarily exhibit net emission. Meanwhile, continuous decline EECB highlights need balanced By 2030, land use's capacity expected to increase different scenarios, leading 'middle-high, sides-low' spatial pattern CESB. These findings are crucial policymakers devising strategies

Language: Английский

Citations

4
Tempo-Spatial Landslide Susceptibility Assessment from the Perspective of Human Engineering Activity DOI Creative Commons
Taorui Zeng, Zizheng Guo, Linfeng Wang

et al.

Remote Sensing, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 15(16), P. 4111 - 4111

Published: Aug. 21, 2023

The expansion of mountainous urban areas and road networks can influence the terrain, vegetation, material characteristics, thereby altering susceptibility landslides. Understanding relationship between human engineering activities landslide occurrence is great significance for both prevention land resource management. In this study, an analysis was conducted on caused by Typhoon Megi in 2016. A representative area along eastern coast China—characterized development, deforestation, severe expansion—was used to analyze spatial distribution For purpose, high-precision Planet optical remote sensing images were obtain inventory related event. main innovative features are as follows: (i) newly developed patch generating land-use simulation (PLUS) model simulated analyzed driving factors land-cover (LULC) from 2010 2060; (ii) stacking strategy combined three strong ensemble models—Random Forest (RF), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Light Machine (LightGBM)—to calculate susceptibility; (iii) distance LULC maps short-term long-term dynamic examine impact susceptibility. results show that maximum built-up 2020 13.433 km2, mainly expanding forest cropland land, with 8.28 km2 5.99 respectively. predicted map 2060 shows a growth 45.88 distributed around government residences relatively flat terrain frequent socio-economic activities. factor contribution has higher than LULC. Stacking RF-XGB-LGBM obtained optimal AUC value 0.915 Furthermore, future network have intensified probability landslides occurring 2015. To our knowledge, first application PLUS models international literature. research serve foundation developing management guidelines reduce risk failures.

Language: Английский

Citations

28
Assessment and management for future habitat risks under the implementation of China's territorial spatial planning: A case study from Hainan Island DOI
Xiaolin Zhang, Xiaobin Jin, Xinyuan Liang

et al.

Environmental Impact Assessment Review, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 106, P. 107474 - 107474

Published: Feb. 27, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

10
Land use/cover change and ecological network in Gansu Province, China during 2000–2020 and their simulations in 2050 DOI

Xinshu Ma,

Cunlin Xin, Ning Chen

et al.

Journal of Arid Land, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 17(1), P. 43 - 57

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Land-Use Land-Cover Dynamics and Future Projections Using GEE, ML, and QGIS-MOLUSCE: A Case Study in Manisa DOI Open Access
Halil İbrahim Gündüz

Sustainability, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 17(4), P. 1363 - 1363

Published: Feb. 7, 2025

Urban expansion reshapes spatial patterns over time, leading to complex challenges such as environmental degradation, resource scarcity, and socio-economic inequality. It is critical anticipate these transformations in order devise proactive urban policies implement sustainable planning practices that minimize negative impacts on ecosystems human livelihoods. This study investigates LULC changes the rapidly urbanizing Manisa metropolitan area of Turkey using Sentinel-2 satellite imagery advanced machine learning algorithms. High-accuracy maps were generated for 2018, 2021, 2024 Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, k-Nearest Neighbors, Classification Regression Trees Among these, Forest algorithm demonstrated superior accuracy consistency distinguishing land-cover classes. Future scenarios 2027 2030 simulated Cellular Automata–Artificial Neural Network model QGIS MOLUSCE plugin. The results indicate significant growth, with built-up areas projected increase by 23.67% between 2030, accompanied declines natural resources bare land water bodies. highlights implications regarding ecological balance demonstrates importance integrating simulation models forecast use changes, enabling management. Overall, effective must be developed manage urbanization conduct a balanced manner.

Language: Английский

Citations

1
A Prediction–Interaction–Driving Framework for Ecosystem Services Under Climate Change and Human Activities: A Case Study of Zoigê County DOI Creative Commons
Wanting Zeng, Li He, Zhengwei He

et al.

Land, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 14(3), P. 441 - 441

Published: Feb. 20, 2025

Under climate change and human activities, ecosystem service (ES) research lacks systematic approaches scientific depth. This study develops a comprehensive framework integrating advanced models to predict ESs, analyze interactions, identify key drivers, assess spatial effects on the Zoigê Plateau. The results indicate following: (1) From 2000 2020 across three 2040 scenarios, water conservation (WC) improves, while carbon storage (CS) habitat quality (HQ) decline, leading overall ES degradation. Core areas face rising degradation risks from 9% 29% under increasing environmental stress (SSP119 SSP585). (2) importance follows HQ > CS SC WC, with bivariate interactions outperforming single-factor effects. Future scenarios show weakened correlating higher ecological stress, indicating stability risks. (3) Land use (>40% explanatory power) is primary driver, urban expansion, slope, evapotranspiration, precipitation contribute (6–12%). (4) drivers showed weak patterns but became more stable future suggesting stronger control. provides methodological paradigm for analysis supports planning in alpine wetland–grassland regions.

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Coupled effects of land use and climate change on water supply in SSP–RCP scenarios: A case study of the Ganjiang River Basin, China DOI Creative Commons
Jia Tang, Peihao Song, Xijun Hu

et al.

Ecological Indicators, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 154, P. 110745 - 110745

Published: Aug. 1, 2023

Coupling land use and climate change under shared socioeconomic pathway representative concentration (SSP–RCP) scenarios can provide more accurate predictions of water supply risks, thereby supporting decision-making for spatial planning with a focus on adaptation. Climate exhibits temporal differences. To meet the requirements planning, further research is needed to assess risks at different basin or regional scales. In this study, we selected four SSP–RCP analysis, considering scale planning. The modeling capabilities five global models (GCMs) multi-model ensemble (MME) were evaluated using Taylor diagram, which assesses performance element simulations. framework that consisted system dynamics (SD), patch-generating land-use simulations (PLUS), Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was employed analyze synergistic changes in climate, use, supply. Ganjiang River Basin (GRB) serves as case study climate-adaptive scale, given its characteristics high agricultural demand vulnerability droughts floods. aims support such our projections, precipitation GRB showed slightly increasing trend from 2021 2050. Monthly increases during flood season August decreases dry October December. maximum minimum temperatures an both yearly monthly scales, higher fall winter. During phase, quantities SSP126 SSP245 similar variations. SSP370 experienced most significant reduction farmland, while SSP585 displayed scattered punctuated layout construction land. annual decreasing 2035 2036–2050, largest found SSP370. variation complex. There consistent season, whereas Seasonal variations are major security concern basin's future. It necessary strengthen northern region enhance ability adapt

Language: Английский

Citations

22
Multi-scenario simulation and optimization control of ecological security based on GeoSOS-FLUS model in ecological fragile area in northeast Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China DOI Creative Commons
Rongrong Ma, Wei Zhou, Jun Ren

et al.

Ecological Indicators, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 151, P. 110324 - 110324

Published: May 11, 2023

Under the dual influence of climate change and human activities, structure function Qinghai-Tibet Plateau ecosystem have undergone profound changes, its ecological security has been a frequent focus academic attention. The calculation bottom line (ESBL) is an essential step in study security. However, current ESBL ecologically fragile areas (QTPEFA) carried out only from perspective supply, research demand largely ignored. Therefore, taking Qinghai Province as case, this paper exploratively calculated supply combination with food standards. Simulation future trends land-use service value (ESV) evolution based on GeoSOS-FLUS under four scenarios, i.e., natural development (ND), protection (EP), cultivated land (CLP) (DP), we explored which measures move ESV closer to (DESBL) provide reasonable suggestions for eco-protection policies. results showed that: (1) overall continuous increase during period, but led different degrees loss. (2) both were 6003.41 hundred million 13132.46 million, respectively. At present, actual higher than (SESBL) far below DESBL. (3) DP scenario was closest DESBL provided relatively more food. most conducive balancing Province. This provides new paradigm measuring scientific basis optimizing policies QTPEFA by comparing multi-scenario simulation line.

Language: Английский

Citations

21