The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 957, P. 177863 - 177863

Published: Dec. 1, 2024

Climate change and fire management actions are the two key drivers of regime changes now into future. The predicted effects these vary between regions global climate projections; however, it is expected that regimes globally likely to intensify. Increased wildfire extent, frequency severity mean impacts people, property, infrastructure, production environment also increase under worsening conditions. Fire programs aim reduce influence climatic conditions on wildfires risk assets future However, given pace regimes, trade-offs increasingly likely. Therefore, understanding cost-effectiveness in form both fuel suppression critical for managers make informed decisions regarding resource allocation. We develop test a Bayesian Decision Network (BDN) incorporating data from ~1200 simulations capturing 16 strategies across six models. quantify size environmental, assets, as well people property. calculate overall scenario based cost implementing program subsequent caused by wildfires. found costs increased all scenarios most regions. Despite some regional variation we were able identify which consistently had high cost-effectiveness. These combinations prescribed burning suppression. Importantly, model clearly demonstrates do-nothing approach highlights action needed prevent

Language: Английский