An Investigation Into the Long‐Chain Propagation Patterns and Driving Factors of Multiple Types of Droughts in Xinjiang DOI

Shikang Zhao,

Zhenxia Mu, Zilong Li

et al.

International Journal of Climatology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: April 26, 2025

ABSTRACT The process of drought propagation is extremely complex and involves all aspects the water cycle. Clarifying mechanism great significance for understanding evolutionary pattern constructing a early warning system. However, due to complexity droughts numerous factors influencing them, there are certain limitations shortcomings in studying intrinsic links, characteristics triggering mechanisms multiple types. To this end, paper takes Xinjiang region as research object, identifies events based on run theory determines time by matching events; risk probabilities, trigger thresholds drivers between different types were explored using copula functions, Bayesian random forest models. results show that (1) average from meteorology agriculture hydrology 2.1 2.8 months, respectively. (2) probability occurrence agricultural (hydrological) increased with severity meteorological (agricultural) droughts. Specifically, extreme mild reached 89% (41%), an threshold −1 (−2.2). (3) Mild northern slopes Tianshan mountains was primary drought, 45% −0.89, In contrast, moderate southern main 56% −1.1, (4) Meteorological triggers significant reduction mainly influenced precipitation potential evapotranspiration. Agricultural hydrological temperature evapotranspiration being change.

Language: Английский

Rising temperature increases the response time of LAI and GPP to meteorological drought in China DOI
Yu‐Fei Wang, Peng Sun, Rui Yao

et al.

Atmospheric Research, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 107989 - 107989

Published: Feb. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Propagation threshold from meteorological to agricultural drought and its potential influence factors DOI
Peng Sun, Ruilin Liu, Rui Yao

et al.

Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 132920 - 132920

Published: Feb. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity of Long-Term Irrigation Effects on Drought in China’s Arid and Humid Regions DOI Creative Commons

Enyu Du,

Fang Chen, Huicong Jia

et al.

Remote Sensing, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 17(7), P. 1115 - 1115

Published: March 21, 2025

Analyzing the spatiotemporal characteristics of meteorological droughts (MD) and agricultural (AD) their propagation in different climate zones is important for effective drought management, adaptation, food security. This study takes a unique approach by comparing irrigated rainfed croplands. A comprehensive framework developed using indices, statistical analysis, trend tests, wavelet transforms. The evolution patterns, trends, correlations MD AD Xinjiang Middle-lower Yangtze Plain (MYP) are investigated. main results showed that severe events (e.g., 2005–2009 MYP 2004–2009) significantly impacted systems, leading to decline vegetation condition. Long-term irrigation can substantially alleviate under conditions. From 2000 2019, on croplands continuously improved, while deteriorated during events. In contrast, although overall was mitigated, benefits were only evident periods weakened after 2013. Correlation analyses revealed mechanisms between croplands, highlighting key role local conditions spatial heterogeneity determining efficiency. findings provide guidance optimizing management strategies, planning, sustainable water resource management.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Prediction of Drought Thresholds Triggering Winter Wheat Yield Losses in the Future Based on the CNN-LSTM Model and Copula Theory: A Case Study of Henan Province DOI Creative Commons

Jianqin Ma,

Yan Zhao,

Bifeng Cui

et al.

Agronomy, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 15(4), P. 954 - 954

Published: April 14, 2025

As global warming progresses, quantifying drought thresholds for crop yield losses is crucial food security and sustainable agriculture. Based on the CNN-LSTM model Copula function, this study constructs a conditional probability framework under future climate change. It analyzes relationship between Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) winter wheat yield, assesses vulnerability of in various regions to stress, quantifies The results showed that (1) SPEI Zhoukou, Sanmenxia, Nanyang was significantly correlated with yield; (2) southern eastern higher than center, western, northern past (2000–2023) (2024–2047); (3) there were significant differences thresholds. loss below 30, 50, 70 percentiles (past/future) −1.86/−2.47, −0.85/−1.39, 0.60/0.35 (Xinyang); −1.45/−2.16, −0.75/−1.34, −0.17/−0.43 (Nanyang); −1.47/−2.24, −0.97/−1.61, 0.69/0.28 (Zhoukou); −2.18/−2.86, −1.80/−2.36, −0.75/−1.08 (Kaifeng), indicating threshold will reduce future. This mainly due different soil conditions Henan Province. In context change, droughts be more frequent. Hence, research provide valuable reference efficient utilization agricultural water resources prevention control risk change

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Hazard assessment of compound drought and heat events on summer maize from agricultural and meteorological perspectives DOI Creative Commons
Qing Li, Peijuan Wang, Yang Li

et al.

Agricultural Water Management, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 313, P. 109479 - 109479

Published: April 19, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
An Investigation Into the Long‐Chain Propagation Patterns and Driving Factors of Multiple Types of Droughts in Xinjiang DOI

Shikang Zhao,

Zhenxia Mu, Zilong Li

et al.

International Journal of Climatology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: April 26, 2025

ABSTRACT The process of drought propagation is extremely complex and involves all aspects the water cycle. Clarifying mechanism great significance for understanding evolutionary pattern constructing a early warning system. However, due to complexity droughts numerous factors influencing them, there are certain limitations shortcomings in studying intrinsic links, characteristics triggering mechanisms multiple types. To this end, paper takes Xinjiang region as research object, identifies events based on run theory determines time by matching events; risk probabilities, trigger thresholds drivers between different types were explored using copula functions, Bayesian random forest models. results show that (1) average from meteorology agriculture hydrology 2.1 2.8 months, respectively. (2) probability occurrence agricultural (hydrological) increased with severity meteorological (agricultural) droughts. Specifically, extreme mild reached 89% (41%), an threshold −1 (−2.2). (3) Mild northern slopes Tianshan mountains was primary drought, 45% −0.89, In contrast, moderate southern main 56% −1.1, (4) Meteorological triggers significant reduction mainly influenced precipitation potential evapotranspiration. Agricultural hydrological temperature evapotranspiration being change.

Language: Английский

Citations

0