medRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown
Published: Dec. 16, 2024
Abstract Background Effective control of infectious diseases relies heavily on understanding transmission dynamics and implementing interventions that reduce the spread. Non-pharmaceutical (NPIs), such as mask-wearing, social distancing, quarantining, are vital tools in managing outbreaks where vaccines or treatments limited. However, success NPIs is influenced by human behavior, including compliance with guidelines, attitudes beliefs about effectiveness interventions. In this study, we applied an innovative proximitybased experimentation platform to generate empirical data behaviors their effect disease transmission. Our uses a smartphone application enables spread digital pathogen among participants via Bluetooth during open-world “experimental epidemic games”. This creates environment for epidemiology field researchers can mechanics collect full ground-truth datasets. Methods study employed “epidemic” app investigate impact risk perception Involving nearly 1,000 two-weeks long game at Wenzhou-Kean University (WKU) China, generated multimodal dataset, which allowed us develop parameterize Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) models. We quantified extent behavioral factors, quarantine, strength intervention strategies influence The model incorporates time-varying rates reflect changes calibrated it using from provide critical insights into how variations NPI levels affect outbreak control. Findings findings reveal adherence alone, behavior attitudes, may not result expected reduction transmission, illustrating complex interplay between factors Moreover, further shows coupled could significantly infection well susceptibility. Interpretation highlights usefulness experimental games realistic datasets, importance integrating epidemiological models enhance accuracy predictions public health outbreaks. Research Context Evidence before conducted comprehensive review existing literature evaluate current state knowledge regarding empirically-informed modeling, particular focus role non-pharmaceutical (NPIs) mitigating search spanned databases PubMed, MEDLINE, Web Science, targeting publications up March 1, 2024, keywords “infectious modeling,” “simulation,” game,” “human behavior,” “non-pharmaceutical interventions,” “epidemiology.” While substantial body research explores dynamics, there notable gap studies integrate large-scale mobility collected apps within environments, university campus. Most fail incorporate complexity real-time responses NPIs, crucial accurately modeling contexts. Added value first use our proximity-based conduct setting while mechanistic framework. By employing flexible, rate model, dynamics. novel approach provides more accurate nuanced depiction real-world scenarios, observed experiment. Through integration participants, combined detailed simulations rigorous sensitivity analyses, offer timely coordinated interventions, alongside compliance, trajectory outbreak. underscores necessity adaptive management presents robust framework inform future planning response efforts. Implications all available evidence underscore pivotal computational approaches generating datasets results then become valuable planning. solid foundation refining additional complexities, age-based behaviors, offers optimizing pandemic preparedness.
Language: Английский
