Resources Policy, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 104, P. 105593 - 105593
Published: April 18, 2025
Language: Английский
Land, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 14(3), P. 515 - 515
Published: March 1, 2025
Understanding the changes in ecosystem quality caused by land use is critical for sustainable urban development and environmental management. This study investigates spatial-temporal evolution of Wuhan from 2000 to 2020 forecasts future trends under multiple scenarios 2030. Using a “foundation-function-structure” assessment framework, we integrate system dynamics (SD), Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, neural network-based inversion model analyze transitions their ecological impacts. The results indicate that rapid expansion has significantly contributed decline cropland forest areas, while impervious surfaces have increased, leading notable degradation. Simulations 2030 three scenarios—ecological protection, natural development, economic priority—demonstrate protection scenario yields highest quality, preserving landscape connectivity mitigating degradation risks. In contrast, priority extensive expansion, exacerbating stress. Under 2023, was primarily due fringes erosion grassland areas. increase mainly attributed transformation early edge conflict zones into stable interior areas integration fragmented patches. These findings highlight need strategic planning balance growth conservation. provides robust methodological framework assessing predicting changes, offering valuable insights policymakers planners striving development.
Language: Английский
Citations
0
Land, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 14(3), P. 601 - 601
Published: March 13, 2025
Analyzing the complex dynamics of land use, accurately assessing ecosystem service values (ESVs), and predicting future trends in use ESVs alterations within spatial constraints policies are essential for policymaking advancing sustainable development objectives. This study analyzed use/land cover (LULC) changes Yunnan Province from 2005 to 2020. Policy were incorporated into scenario simulations, an improved equivalent factor method, Markov-PLUS model, global autocorrelation, Getis-Ord Gi* method applied predict analyze LULC under different scenarios 2030. The findings revealed following: (1) Forests grasslands dominant categories YNP, with notable patterns recorded between (2) total area increased by CNY 8.152 billion during this period, exhibiting initial decline followed gradual recovery. (3) Simulations 2030 indicated that natural would lead most extensive urbanization, while ecological conservation yield greatest increase ESVs. In contrast, only farmland led food production-related ESVs, but resulted lowest among three scenarios. These results contribute understanding impacts on provide insights formulating scientifically sound effective protection policies.
Language: Английский
Citations
0
Remote Sensing, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 17(9), P. 1619 - 1619
Published: May 2, 2025
The scientific development and utilization of cultivated land reserve resource areas is an important basis for realizing national food security regional ecological protection. This paper focuses on use optimization simulations to explore the paths sustainable in resources areas. Deep learning technology was introduced calculate growth probability each type. A change simulation method coupling CNN-LSTM PLUS constructed dynamically simulate pattern, spatial accuracy improved. Markov chains multi-objective planning (MOP) model were used set historical (HD) scenarios, conservation (EP) consolidation (LC) (SD) scenarios. comprehensive impact ecosystem service value (ESV), agricultural production benefits (APBs), carbon balance (CB) evaluated by systematically analyzing quantitative distribution characteristics different scenarios from 2020 2030. Da’an City, Jilin province, China selected as study area. results this show following: (1) coupled with designed capture dynamic use, which achieves high (Kappa 0.8119). (2) In EP scenario, increase ESV 4.36%, but APB only 7.33%. LC increased 22.11%, while decreased 3.44%. SD a achieved between APB, it optimal path development. (3) scenario performed best, CB 5,532,100 tons, lowest, at 1,493,500 tons. shows potential combining reduction paper, deep modeling multi-scenario integrated, management provided.
Language: Английский
Citations
0
Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 15(1)
Published: March 25, 2025
Amid global climate change, the pursuit of low-carbon development has become a unified international goal. The Qinba Mountain region plays an important role in maintaining China's ecological security, making spatial zoning tailored for carbon neutrality vital local sustainable development. Using land use and socioeconomic data from 2000 to 2020 81 county-level units, neutral framework was developed, considering natural, economic, resource factors. This study further integrated spatiotemporal dynamics index multi-scenario predictions future emission (CE) zoning. results revealed that had overall positive net-carbon trend without significant deficits, central faced increased CE northern weak carrying capacity. predicted continued decrease under scenario reached 30.55 million t by 2060, with only nine units failing reach their peaking 2030. Five different zones were identified: sink functional zone, stabilization high-carbon control zone source optimization zone. Tailored strategies each proposed enhance regional environment contribute green These findings offer insights into achieving regions or cities.
Language: Английский
Citations
0
Resources Policy, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 104, P. 105593 - 105593
Published: April 18, 2025
Language: Английский
Citations
0