Systematic review of the uncertainty of coral reef futures under climate change

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(1)

Published: March 12, 2024

Abstract Climate change impact syntheses, such as those by the Intergovernmental Panel on Change, consistently assert that limiting global warming to 1.5 °C is unlikely safeguard most of world’s coral reefs. This prognosis primarily based a small subset available models apply similar ‘excess heat’ threshold methodologies. Our systematic review 79 articles projecting reef responses climate revealed five main methods. ‘Excess constituted one third (32%) all studies but attracted disproportionate share (68%) citations in field. Most methods relied deterministic cause-and-effect rules rather than probabilistic relationships, impeding field’s ability estimate uncertainty. To synthesize projections, we aimed identify with comparable outputs. However, divergent choices model outputs and scenarios limited analysis fraction studies. We found substantial discrepancies projected impacts, indicating serving basis for syntheses may project more severe consequences other Drawing insights from fields, propose incorporate uncertainty into modeling approaches multi-model ensemble approach generating projections futures.

Language: Английский

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No coral recovery three years after a major bleaching event in reefs in the Southwestern Atlantic refugium

Marine Biology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 171(5)

Published: April 18, 2024

Language: Английский

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The Thermal Stress History of South Atlantic Reefs Reveals Increasing Intensity, Duration, Frequency, and Likely Undocumented Bleaching Episodes

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 31(4)

Published: April 1, 2025

The primary consequence of global warming for reefs is coral bleaching, often leading to extensive mortality. Although bleaching well-documented globally, the thermal stress and experienced by unique South Atlantic remain largely unknown due insufficient monitoring on both spatial temporal scales. Therefore, this work aimed reconstruct past episodes across reefs, assessed whether are becoming more intense, longer-lasting, frequent. We retrieved daily 5 km-resolution Degree Heating Week (DHW) data from U.S. National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration Coral Reef Watch server 33 reef sites spanning last 40 years. For each episode, we intensity (maximum DHW value), duration (number continuous days under stress), frequency between episodes). Generalized linear models were fitted intensity, duration, evaluate influence latitude time x region interaction as predictors. recorded multiple episodes, increasing 2010 onwards, ranging 10 1985-89 75 2020-24. Intensity increased over entire Atlantic. Frequency also Southwestern coast oceanic islands, but not Africa. Episodes at higher latitudes prolonged, validity history reconstruction was groundtruthed using information Abrolhos Bank, only consistently monitored site in Atlantic-DHW accurately matched observed site. With this, our dataset shows that likely occurred Atlantic, went undocumented field. currently available underestimates extent occurring area, which experiencing increases stress.

Language: Английский

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Corals at the edge of environmental limits: A new conceptual framework to re-define marginal and extreme coral communities

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 884, P. 163688 - 163688

Published: April 25, 2023

The worldwide decline of coral reefs has renewed interest in communities at the edge environmental limits because they have potential to serve as resilience hotspots and climate change refugia, can provide insights into how might function future ocean conditions. These are often referred marginal or extreme but few definitions exist usage these terms therefore been inconsistent. This creates significant challenges for categorising poorly studied synthesising data across locations. Furthermore, this impedes our understanding persist their lessons reef survival. Here, we propose that related distinct a novel conceptual framework redefine them. Specifically, define extremeness solely based on conditions (i.e., large deviations from optimal mean and/or variance) marginality ecological criteria altered community composition ecosystem functioning). joint independent assessment is critical avoid common pitfalls where existing outside presumed development automatically considered inferior more traditional settings. We further evaluate differential natural laboratories, discuss strategies conservation management well priorities research. Our new classification provides an important tool improve corals leverage knowledge optimise conservation, restoration rapidly changing ocean.

Language: Английский

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Reconsidering and rescaling climate change predictions for coral reefs

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 14(8), P. 779 - 781

Published: July 29, 2024

Language: Английский

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Taxonomic and functional diversity of zooxanthellate corals and hydrocorals in Southwestern Atlantic reefs

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 12

Published: May 1, 2024

The Southwestern Atlantic (SWA) harbors a relatively species poor but highly endemic coral assemblage due to historical processes, environmental and ecological drivers. Despite its low moderate cover, corals still have disproportionate contribution ecosystem function stability in this region. In the context of global change, it is imperative know corals’ diversity biogeographic patterns, yet comprehensive approach missing for SWA corals. We integrated occurrence data from 21 sites nine functional traits across 20 (scleractinian hydrozoan) explore taxonomic assemblages (1°N-27°S). identified eight regions based on composition, then described their using four metrics: richness (FRic), dispersion (FDis), evenness (FEve), originality (FOri). Taxonomic peak between latitudes 13°S-20°S, decreasing with increasing distance center, known as Abrolhos Bank that wide continental platform. Our findings reveal prevalent pattern high redundancy these (indicated by originality), occupying edges trait space (high evenness) converging around few values (low dispersion). Such patterns resulted beta increased nestedness among caused dispersal barriers filtering. Southernmost region (24°-27°S) has lowest comprises only two share similar traits, being: hermaphrodites, brooders depth-tolerant, having corallite. As might become critical future tropicalization scenario, tropical those southernmost can be more likely thrive. Knowledge offer information conservation helping prioritizing areas higher enhance survival under climate change.

Language: Английский

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Diversification of refugia types needed to secure the future of coral reefs subject to climate change

Conservation Biology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 38(1)

Published: May 5, 2023

Abstract Identifying locations of refugia from the thermal stresses climate change for coral reefs and better managing them is one key recommendations adaptation. We review summarize approximately 30 years applied research focused on identifying to prioritize conservation actions under rapid change. found that currently proposed predicted avoid future losses are highly reliant excess heat metrics, such as degree heating weeks. However, many existing alternative environmental, ecological, life‐history variables could be used identify other types lead desired diversified portfolio reef conservation. To improve priorities reefs, there a need evaluate validate predictions with long‐term field data abundance, diversity, functioning. There also safeguard displaying resistance toprolonged exposure waves ability recover quickly after exposure. recommend using more metrics potential sites can avoid, resist, high ocean temperatures consequences change, thereby shifting past efforts avoidance risk‐spreading strategic in rapidly warming climate.

Language: Английский

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Lessons from long-term monitoring of tropical rock lobsters to support fisheries management

Fisheries Research, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 275, P. 107030 - 107030

Published: April 22, 2024

Fishery-independent scientific surveys are highly valuable for monitoring lobsters and other fisheries. Yet, there relatively few long-term to support the provision of management advice. A number challenges can prevent continuity series. This paper uses 35-year continuous annual dive Australia's Torres Strait tropical rock lobster (TRL) overview strengths limitations a survey, as well lessons learnt from having overcome range challenges. more reliable than fishery-dependent data robust external shocks such market drivers fuel prices. The primary purpose is provide index stock abundance together with inform on size age structure, plus model parameters reference points. Here, we also highlight additional survey benefits including: yielding positive gains relative cost, facilitating an adaptive approach that serves early warning system, reducing resolving inter-sector conflicts, reduced frequency assessments, providing associated habitat monitoring, improved stakeholder buy-in, utility development Operating Models Management Strategy Evaluation, contribution achieving certification, contributing biodiversity agreements consistent cross-jurisdictional monitoring. We analyse changes in resource management, budget cuts, increased health safety requirements, maintenance capability staff capacity, need validate results, pandemic changing climate. Our experiences why considered gold standard fisheries insights building maintaining key marine

Language: Английский

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Functional diversity patterns of reef fish, corals and algae in the Brazilian biogeographical province

Journal of Biogeography, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 50(6), P. 1163 - 1176

Published: March 20, 2023

Abstract Aim Functional diversity encapsulates whole‐community responses to environmental gradients mediated by species traits. Under trait convergence, similar may cause distantly related taxa exhibit spatially correlated functional diversity. We investigated whether of reef fish, coral and algal richness disparity the environment produce patterns. Location Brazilian marine biogeographical province. Taxon Reef corals, algae. Methods analysed data from 40 coastal oceanic sites distributed across 27 degrees latitude in Using traits, we measured (FRic) (Rao's Q ) calculated Pearson's correlation () between pairs metrics taxa. used Bayesian multivariate linear models model relative sea surface temperature (SST), turbidity, salinity, region, estimate residual after accounting for these variables. Results The best fitted contained SST, explained about 56% variation FRic Rao's Yet, algae corals responded differently were less than compared fish. Observed correlations low intermediate (average = 0.14), even lower 0.02). Main conclusions region had a widespread role determining congruent offish, reefs, despite their fundamentally different evolutionary histories. Low spatial suggest that other mechanisms might also contribute patterns independently. Given structure reefs be compromised climate change, pollution overfishing.

Language: Английский

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Bio-physical determinants of sediment accumulation on an offshore coral reef: A snapshot study

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 895, P. 165188 - 165188

Published: June 27, 2023

Sediments are found on all coral reefs around the globe. However, amount of sediment in different reservoirs, and rates at which sediments move between can shape biological functioning reefs. Unfortunately, relatively few studies have examined reef dynamics, associated bio-physical drivers, simultaneously over matching spatial temporal scales. This has led to a partial understanding how living systems connected, especially clear-water offshore To address this problem, four reservoirs/sedimentary processes three drivers were quantified across seven habitats/depths Lizard Island, an exposed mid-shelf Great Barrier Reef. Even location substantial load suspended passed reef; theoretically capable replacing entire standing stock on-reef turf just 8 h. quantification actual deposition suggested that 2 % passing settled reef. The data also revealed marked incongruence (sediment trap data) accumulation (TurfPod profile, with flat back emerging as key areas both accumulation. By contrast, shallow windward crest was area but had limited capacity for These cross-reef patterns related wave energy geomorphology, low ecologically important aligning energy. findings reveal disconnect benthos, 'post-settlement' fate dependent local hydrodynamic conditions. From ecological perspective, suggests contextual constraints (wave geomorphology) may predispose some or high-load regimes.

Language: Английский

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