Visualizing Cascading Risk Effects: Organizing Disruptive Forces and Factors Towards A Color-Assisted, Standardized Cascading Risk Effects Framework DOI
Trond Arne Undheim

SSRN Electronic Journal, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Jan. 1, 2024

Though risk visualization might be complex, classification, and consistency, color help. The article reviews the multidisciplinary literature on how systemic risks derive from a mix of economic, technological, socio political, ecological forces, proposes novel visual framework to deal with complexity. When scholars or practitioners attempt describe interplay multitude forces in specific case studies situations, each uses their own technical terms, which hinders communication about causes, effects, interactions, possible mitigation. Until now, there has been no commonly agreed that visualizes cascading individual factors. Methods:Mixed methods, including scenario planning, review, interview survey methodology, study research, are used propose Cascading Risk Effects Framework (CREF), inspired by periodic table elements is its "element", called factor, these factors can structured relationship other. This illustrates key relationships between six distinct but interrelated disruptive forces: sci-tech, governance, economics, social dynamics, impact, health adversity. Results:CREF displays 122 initial (to increase as research proceeds) provides standardized way factor: one-word factor name, two-letter symbol abbreviation, impact ratio, morbidity rate, cost, mitigation perception, likelihood rank. implications would see strikingly diverse causes phenomena compared contrasted across similar axes, given inherently nature. Future should deploy this new nomenclature, need carefully assess validity classification into (6) (122), begin properly structure causal co-causal well feedback loops them.

Language: Английский

Systemic contributions to global catastrophic risk DOI
Constantin W. Arnscheidt, SJ Beard, Tom Hobson

et al.

Published: July 11, 2024

Humanity faces a complex and dangerous global risk landscape, many different terms concepts have been used to make sense of it. One broad strand research characterises how emerges from the system, using like systemic risk, Anthropocene synchronous failure, negative social tipping points, polycrisis. Another focuses on possible worst-case outcomes, catastrophic (GCR), existential extinction risk. Despite their clear relevance each other, only limited connections made between these two strands. Here we provide framework which synthesises shows emergent properties system contribute outcomes. Specifically, generates hazards, amplification, vulnerability, latent as well challenges for GCR assessment mitigation. This lens helps us understand origins GCR, provides useful interface deeply related but infrequently connected bodies work, important insights reduction.

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Visualizing Cascading Risk Effects: Organizing Disruptive Forces and Factors Towards A Color-Assisted, Standardized Cascading Risk Effects Framework DOI
Trond Arne Undheim

SSRN Electronic Journal, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Jan. 1, 2024

Though risk visualization might be complex, classification, and consistency, color help. The article reviews the multidisciplinary literature on how systemic risks derive from a mix of economic, technological, socio political, ecological forces, proposes novel visual framework to deal with complexity. When scholars or practitioners attempt describe interplay multitude forces in specific case studies situations, each uses their own technical terms, which hinders communication about causes, effects, interactions, possible mitigation. Until now, there has been no commonly agreed that visualizes cascading individual factors. Methods:Mixed methods, including scenario planning, review, interview survey methodology, study research, are used propose Cascading Risk Effects Framework (CREF), inspired by periodic table elements is its "element", called factor, these factors can structured relationship other. This illustrates key relationships between six distinct but interrelated disruptive forces: sci-tech, governance, economics, social dynamics, impact, health adversity. Results:CREF displays 122 initial (to increase as research proceeds) provides standardized way factor: one-word factor name, two-letter symbol abbreviation, impact ratio, morbidity rate, cost, mitigation perception, likelihood rank. implications would see strikingly diverse causes phenomena compared contrasted across similar axes, given inherently nature. Future should deploy this new nomenclature, need carefully assess validity classification into (6) (122), begin properly structure causal co-causal well feedback loops them.

Language: Английский

Citations

0