Optimal Control Strategy of a Mathematical Model for the Fifth Wave of COVID-19 Outbreak (Omicron) in Thailand DOI Creative Commons

Jiraporn Lamwong,

Napasool Wongvanich,

I‐Ming Tang

et al.

Mathematics, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 12(1), P. 14 - 14

Published: Dec. 20, 2023

The world has been fighting against the COVID-19 Coronavirus which seems to be constantly mutating. present wave of illness is caused by Omicron variant coronavirus. vaccines five variants (α, β, γ, δ, and ω) have quickly developed using mRNA technology. efficacy vaccine for one strains not same as other strains. In this study, a mathematical model spread was made considering asymptomatic population, symptomatic two infected populations quarantined population. An analysis basic reproduction numbers next-generation matrix method. Global asymptotic stability Lyapunov theory measure stability, showing an equilibrium point’s examining with fact in Thailand. Moreover, sensitivity values verify parameters affecting spread. It found that most common parameter initial number Optimal control problems social distancing strategies conjunction mask-wearing vaccination were determined find give better disease. Lagrangian Hamiltonian functions employed determine objective function. Pontryagin’s maximum principle existence optimal control. According use able achieve rather than controlling just or another.

Language: Английский

How optimal allocation of limited testing capacity changes epidemic dynamics DOI Creative Commons
Justin M. Calabrese, Jeffery Demers

Journal of Theoretical Biology, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 538, P. 111017 - 111017

Published: Jan. 24, 2022

Insufficient testing capacity has been a critical bottleneck in the worldwide fight against COVID-19. Optimizing deployment of limited resources therefore emerged as keystone problem pandemic response planning. Here, we use modified SEIR model to optimize strategies under constraint capacity. We define pre-symptomatic, asymptomatic, and symptomatic infected classes, assume that positively tested individuals are immediately moved into quarantine. further two types testing. Clinical focuses only on class. Non-clinical detects pre- asymptomatic from general population, concentration parameter governs degree which such can be focused high infection risk individuals. then solve for optimal mix clinical non-clinical function both parameter. find purely is at very low capacities, supporting early guidance ration tests sickest patients. Additionally, becomes increases. At but empirically observed testing, even if extremely unfocused, optimal. highlight advantages implementation programs, combining optimized with contact reduction interventions lockdowns, social distancing, masking.

Language: Английский

Citations

14
Why Controlling the Asymptomatic Infection Is Important: A Modelling Study with Stability and Sensitivity Analysis DOI Creative Commons
Jiaji Pan, Zhongxiang Chen, Yixuan He

et al.

Fractal and Fractional, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 6(4), P. 197 - 197

Published: March 31, 2022

The large proportion of asymptomatic patients is the major cause leading to COVID-19 pandemic which still a significant threat whole world. A six-dimensional ODE system (SEIAQR epidemical model) established study dynamics spreading considering infection by exposed, infected, and cases. basic reproduction number derived from model more comprehensive including contribution patients. For this complex system, we investigate global local stability disease-free equilibrium, as well endemic whereas most studies overlooked or some other virus transmission features. In sensitivity analysis, parameters related play role not only in R0. It also found that greatly affected equilibrium. Either completely eradicating disease achieving realistic goal reduce cases an importance controlling should be emphasized. three-dimensional phase diagrams demonstrate convergence point under different initial conditions. particular, massive infections will occur shown diagram quantitatively case R0>1. Moreover, two four-dimensional contour maps Rt are given varying with parameters, can offer better intuitive instructions on control adjusting policy-related parameters.

Language: Английский

Citations

13
A fractional SEIQR model on diphtheria disease DOI
Mohammad Ghani, Ika Qutsiati Utami,

Fadillah Willis Triyayuda

et al.

Modeling Earth Systems and Environment, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 9(2), P. 2199 - 2219

Published: Dec. 10, 2022

Language: Английский

Citations

13
Innovative strategies for Lassa fever epidemic control: a groundbreaking study DOI Creative Commons
Yasir Ramzan, Aziz Ullah Awan, Muhammad Ozair

et al.

AIMS Mathematics, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 8(12), P. 30790 - 30812

Published: Jan. 1, 2023

<abstract><p>This study aims to develop a mathematical model for analyzing Lassa fever transmission dynamics and proposing effective control measures. The stability of the fever-free equilibrium point is examined model's accuracy assessed using real-world data. Additionally, parameter values basic reproduction number are estimated. A sensitivity analysis also conducted, which identifies key drivers influencing dynamics. Moreover, impact parameters on numbers investigated. Multiple methodologies including use Ribavirin, implementing mobile health technology incorporating natural predators devised analyzed optimal theory curtail virus transmission.</p></abstract>

Language: Английский

Citations

7
Simulink Methods to Simulate COVID-19 Outbreak Using Fractional Order Models DOI Creative Commons

R. Srilekha,

V. Parthiban

Contemporary Mathematics, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 157 - 174

Published: Jan. 9, 2024

The objective of this work is to solve a coronavirus transmission model using simulink, platform for based design that facilitates simulation and at the system level. divided into two sections: first, deals with setting up parameters, second computing fractional derivatives. fundamental SIR, SEIR, SEIQR, SEIARM models were used in study. An effective, quick, easy, visually appealing method simulate pandemic outbreaks. To accurately follow progress infection, we contrast findings those acquired by MATLAB code. applications can be research projects also as teaching tool.

Language: Английский

Citations

2
Optimal control of COVID-19 through strategic mathematical modeling: Incorporating harmonic mean incident rate and vaccination DOI Creative Commons
Kamil Shah, Jamal Shah, Ebenezer Bonyah

et al.

AIP Advances, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 14(9)

Published: Sept. 1, 2024

COVID-19 is a novel virus that has spread globally, and governments around the world often implement different strategies to prevent its spread. In literature, several models have been studied with bilinear incident rate. this study, S1V1E1I1Q1R1 (susceptible-vaccinated-exposed-infective-quarantined-recovered) model proposed. To investigate how disease spreads in population, an algorithm used. The efficacy of used calculate disease-free equilibrium point. A next generation matrix technique find R0. Furthermore, check effect parameters on basic reproduction number (R0), sensitivity analysis conducted. Numerical simulation displays population by increasing value contact rate β while reduces vaccination θ, quarantine ϕ, recovery γ. Different optimal control strategies, such as social distance quick isolation, are also implemented.

Language: Английский

Citations

2
COVID-19 SIR model: Bifurcation analysis and optimal control DOI Creative Commons
Mostak Ahmed, Md. Harun-Or-Rashid Khan, Md. Manirul Alam Sarker

et al.

Results in Control and Optimization, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 12, P. 100246 - 100246

Published: June 1, 2023

This paper proposes a SIR epidemic model with vital dynamics to control or eliminate the spread of COVID-19 considering constant population, saturated treatment, and direct–indirect transmission rate model. We demonstrate positivity, boundness calculate disease-free equilibrium point basic reproduction number from use Jacobian matrix Lyapunov function analyze local global stability, respectively. It is observed that indirect infection increases gives rise multiple endemic diseases. perform transcritical, forward, backward, Hopf bifurcation analyses. propose two parameters (Use face mask, hand sanitizer, social distancing, vaccination) minimize coronavirus. Pontryagin's maximum principle solve optimal problem results numerically.

Language: Английский

Citations

6
Sensitivity Analysis and Optimal Control of Covid 19 Model DOI Open Access
Firmansyah Firmansyah, Yulita Molliq Rangkuti

Jambura Journal of Biomathematics (JJBM), Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 4(1), P. 95 - 102

Published: June 30, 2023

Coronavirus infection is a disease that causes death and threatens human life; for prevention, it necessary to quarantine susceptible, exposed, infected populations vaccinate the entire population. This kind of vaccination intended reduce spread coronavirus. Epidemiological models are strategy used by public health practitioners prevent fight diseases. However, be in decision making, mathematical must carefully parameterized validated using epidemiological entomological data. models: symptomatic, contagious, recovering. In this study, sensitivity analysis optimal control were performed determine relative importance model parameters minimize number measures against disease. Sensitivity was carried out index measure change basic reproduction each parameter, function applied dynamic modeling COVID-19 Pontryagin Minimum Principle. We will describe formulation system with then use Pontryagin’s Principle find solutions. article, cases USA India serve as examples efficiency measures. The results obtained revealed became basis reducing two countries, India, effective transmission rates from S E, (β), E I, (α), R, (ps), which main watch growth respect Basic Reproduction (R0). Finally, three controls simulated I (in USA) II India) interval t ∈ [0, 15]. For all controls, effectiveness close 50% 100% COVID 19. According findings, if these implemented ideally start pandemic, sufferers.

Language: Английский

Citations

4
Dynamics of COVID-19 Using SEIQR Epidemic Model DOI Creative Commons

N. Avinash,

G. Britto Antony Xavier,

Ammar Alsinai

et al.

Journal of Mathematics, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 2022(1)

Published: Jan. 1, 2022

The major goal of this study is to create an optimal technique for managing COVID‐19 spread by transforming the SEIQR model into a dynamic (multistage) programming problem with continuous and discrete time‐varying transmission rates as optimizing variables. We have developed control discrete‐time, deterministic susceptible class ( S ), exposed E infected I quarantined Q recovered R ) epidemic finite time horizon. involves finding minimum objective function controlled process subject constraints limited resources. For our model, we present new based on solutions that can be used minimize infection rate maximize recovery rate. suitable conditions obtaining monotonic proposed obtain sequences. explored positivity unique solvability nature these implicit explicit time‐discrete models. According findings, isolating affected humans limit danger spreading in future.

Language: Английский

Citations

7
A Fuzzy Fractional Order Approach to SIDARTHE Epidemic Model for COVID‐19 DOI Creative Commons

P. Chellamani,

K. Julietraja,

Ammar Alsinai

et al.

Complexity, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 2022(1)

Published: Jan. 1, 2022

In this paper, a novel coronavirus SIDARTHE epidemic model system is constructed using Caputo‐type fuzzy fractional differential equation. Applying Caputo derivatives to our motivated by the need more thoroughly examine dynamics of model. Here, concept applied for finding transmission in an easier way. The existence unique solution examined fixed point theory given dynamic behaviour COVID‐19 understood applying numerical results along with combination Laplace and Adomian decomposition transform. Hence, efficient method solve equation transforms their inverses sense derivative developed, which can make problem numerically. Numerical calculations are performed considering different parameter values.

Language: Английский

Citations

7