Advances in Short-Term Solar Forecasting: A Review and Benchmark of Machine Learning Methods and Relevant Data Sources DOI Creative Commons
Franko Pandžić, Tomislav Capuder

Energies, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 17(1), P. 97 - 97

Published: Dec. 23, 2023

Solar forecasting is becoming increasingly important due to the exponential growth in total global solar capacity each year. More photovoltaic (PV) penetration grid poses problems for stability inherent intermittent and variable nature of PV power production. Therefore, quantities becomes operators market participants. This review presents most recent relevant studies focusing on short-term irradiance Recent research has turned machine learning address this challenge. The paper provides a discussion about building model, including evaluation measures method selection through analysed literature. Given that data-driven, focus been placed data sources referenced Open-access have compiled explored. main contribution establishment benchmark assessing performance models. utilizes mentioned open-source datasets, offering standardized platform future research. It serves crucial purpose streamlining investigations facilitating direct comparisons among different methodologies field forecasting.

Language: Английский

Pairing ensemble numerical weather prediction with ensemble physical model chain for probabilistic photovoltaic power forecasting DOI Creative Commons
Martin János Mayer, Dazhi Yang

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 175, P. 113171 - 113171

Published: Jan. 18, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

52

Capacity optimization and economic analysis of PV–hydrogen hybrid systems with physical solar power curve modeling DOI
Guoming Yang, Hao Zhang, Wenting Wang

et al.

Energy Conversion and Management, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 288, P. 117128 - 117128

Published: May 17, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

43

Probabilistic day-ahead prediction of PV generation. A comparative analysis of forecasting methodologies and of the factors influencing accuracy DOI
Luca Massidda, Fabio Bettio, Marino Marrocu

et al.

Solar Energy, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 271, P. 112422 - 112422

Published: March 1, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

27

Short-term photovoltaic power forecasting with feature extraction and attention mechanisms DOI
Wen‐Cheng Liu,

Zhizhong Mao

Renewable Energy, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 226, P. 120437 - 120437

Published: April 1, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

25

An archived dataset from the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System for probabilistic solar power forecasting DOI
Wenting Wang, Dazhi Yang, Tao Hong

et al.

Solar Energy, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 248, P. 64 - 75

Published: Nov. 14, 2022

Language: Английский

Citations

42

Technical and Economic Analysis of Solar PV/Diesel Generator Smart Hybrid Power Plant Using Different Battery Storage Technologies for SRM IST, Delhi-NCR Campus DOI Open Access
Shilpa Sambhi, Himanshu Sharma, Vikas Singh Bhadoria

et al.

Sustainability, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 15(4), P. 3666 - 3666

Published: Feb. 16, 2023

This paper presents atechnical and economic analysis of the proposed solar PV/diesel generator smart hybrid power plant for a part SRM IST, Delhi-NCR campus. The was performed using five battery storage technologies: lead-acid, lithium-ion, vanadium flow, zinc bromide nickel-iron. also used HOMER Pro software. conducted to assess performance parameters such as initial cost, simple payback period, return on investment, energy produced, renewable penetration emission air pollutants. optimal solution obtained SPP(200 kW)/DG(82 kW)/ZB(2000 kWh), with cycle charging dispatch strategy. cost this configuration is estimated be USD163,445, operating USD534 per year. net present USD170,348, has been USD0.090 kWh. It that solution, diesel may consume only 110 L/year diesel, which minimum all configurations. Sensitivity between size PV array battery, along variations in battery’s nominal capacity fraction.

Language: Английский

Citations

27

A Tutorial Review of the Solar Power Curve: Regressions, Model Chains, and Their Hybridization and Probabilistic Extensions DOI Creative Commons
Dazhi Yang, Xiangao Xia, Martin János Mayer

et al.

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 41(6), P. 1023 - 1067

Published: March 1, 2024

Abstract Owing to the persisting hype in pushing toward global carbon neutrality, study scope of atmospheric science is rapidly expanding. Among numerous trending topics, energy meteorology has been attracting most attention hitherto. One essential skill solar meteorologists power curve modeling, which seeks map irradiance and auxiliary weather variables power, by statistical and/or physical means. In this regard, tutorial review aims deliver a complete overview those fundamental scientific engineering principles pertaining curve. Solar curves can be modeled two primary ways, one regression other model chain. Both classes modeling approaches, alongside their hybridization probabilistic extensions, allow accuracy improvement uncertainty quantification, are scrutinized contrasted thoroughly review.

Language: Английский

Citations

15

A review of distributed solar forecasting with remote sensing and deep learning DOI
Yinghao Chu, Yiling Wang, Dazhi Yang

et al.

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 198, P. 114391 - 114391

Published: April 25, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

12

Embedding the weather prediction errors (WPE) into the photovoltaic (PV) forecasting method using deep learning DOI
Adela Bârã, Simona‐Vasilica Oprea

Journal of Forecasting, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 43(5), P. 1173 - 1198

Published: Jan. 24, 2024

Abstract The creation of features makes the difference in improving photovoltaic forecast (PVF) for on‐grid, hybrid and off‐grid PV systems. importance PVF is tremendous, it can be essential optimizing home appliances to maximize Renewable Energy Sources (RES) usage or create performant bids electricity market. Several use cases are considered from connectivity point view. Therefore, this paper, we propose a Weather Prediction Error (WPE)‐based method that uses Stacking Regressor (SR) various systems coexist emerging Communities (EC) landscape. novelty research conduct consists proposing several determining coefficients adjust based on WPE. results four types size view investigated. Compared with individual Machine Learning (ML) models, R 2 increases more than 3% SR 6% after applying adjustment coefficients. Nevertheless, major improvement recorded inverter large industrial power plant, demonstrating proposed model suitable these other metrics improved as well, especially Mean Average (MAE) decreases between 10% 23%. A significant decrease case on‐grid PV, 130 kW 123 using 107 adjustments. This represents around 18% initial MAE. ratio daily deviations also SR. For all systems, stabilizes shorter interval, values 0.78 1.33 obtained ML models 0.83 1.24 After final adjustments, interval becomes shorter, having 0.90 1.10.

Language: Английский

Citations

8

Predictability and forecast skill of solar irradiance over the contiguous United States DOI
Bai Liu, Dazhi Yang, Martin János Mayer

et al.

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 182, P. 113359 - 113359

Published: May 19, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

15