Managing the forest-water nexus for climate change adaptation

Forest Ecology and Management, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 525, P. 120545 - 120545

Published: Oct. 10, 2022

Language: Английский

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Detecting the human fingerprint in the summer 2022 West-Central European soil drought

Published: May 11, 2023

Abstract. In the 2022 summer, West-Central Europe and several other northern-hemisphere mid-latitude regions experienced substantial soil moisture deficits in wake of precipitation shortages elevated temperatures. Much has not witnessed a more severe drought since at least mid-20th century, raising question whether this is manifestation our warming climate. Here, we employ well-established statistical approach to attribute low summer human-induced climate change, using observation-driven estimates models. We find that Europe, June–August root-zone such as expected occur once 20 years present climate, but would have occurred only about per century during pre-industrial times. The entire northern extratropics show an even stronger global imprint with 20-fold probability increase or higher, note underlying uncertainty large. Reasons are manifold, include lack direct observations required spatiotemporal scales, limitations remotely sensed estimates, resulting need simulate land surface models driven by meteorological data. Nevertheless, observation-based products indicate long-term declining for both regions, tendency likely fueled regional warming, while no clear trends emerge precipitation. Finally, model analysis suggests 2 °C world, 2022-like conditions become twice compared today, take place nearly every year across extratropics.

Language: Английский

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Current and future drought vulnerability for three dominant boreal tree species

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 30(1)

Published: Dec. 9, 2023

Abstract Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and severity of droughts, possibly causing sudden elevated tree mortality. Better understanding predictions boreal forest responses climate are needed efficiently adapt management. We used tree‐ring width chronologies from Swedish National Forest Inventory, sampled between 2010 2018, a random machine‐learning algorithm identify tree, stand, site variables that determine drought damage risk, predict their future spatial–temporal evolution. The dataset consisted 16,455 cores Norway spruce, Scots pine, birch trees all over Sweden. risk was calculated as probability growth anomaly occurrence caused by past events during 1960–2010. block cross‐validation method compute model for under current predicted 2040–2070 RCP.2.6, RCP.4.5, RCP.8.5 emission scenarios. found local climatic be most important predictors, although stand competition also affects risk. spruce currently susceptible species in southern This faces high vulnerability 28% country increases spring temperatures would greatly this area almost half total Warmer annual will forested where suffers drought, especially northern central In contrast, coincided with cold winter early‐spring temperatures. Consequently, decrease warmer pine. suggest active selection species, promoting right mixtures thinning reduce promising strategies adapting forests droughts.

Language: Английский

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Impacts of drought and heat events on vegetative growth in a typical humid zone of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, China

Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 620, P. 129452 - 129452

Published: March 28, 2023

Language: Английский

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Delineating vulnerability to drought using a process-based growth model in Pyrenean silver fir forests

Forest Ecology and Management, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 541, P. 121069 - 121069

Published: May 10, 2023

Assessing tree growth patterns and deviations from expected climate baselines across wide environmental gradients is fundamental to determine forest vulnerability drought. This need particularly compelling for the southernmost limit of species distribution where hot droughts often trigger dieback processes. case some silver fir (Abies alba) populations located in southwestern Europe (Spanish Pyrenees) which present ongoing processes since 1980s. We sampled 21 stands showing different intensity, assessed using defoliation levels, quantified their characterized responses climate. Then, we climatic predictions process-based Vaganov-Shashkin (VS) model. The forests most intense dieback, i.e. highest were mainly low-elevation sites western Pyrenees. Trees these displayed lowest rates year-to-year variability was limited by late-summer evaporative demand. In eastern central Pyrenees, detected a mild limitation low soil moisture during late growing season positive recovery recent years with respect baseline. Decreasing trajectories common pattern, while rising trends Our results portend systematic spatial Pyrenean forming south-western Europe. Decoupling between observed decades suggests contrasting change, more importantly, decoupling clusters could be used as an early-warning signal impending dieback. Consequently, foresee future events have detrimental effects compared

Language: Английский

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