Contrasting range changes and drivers of four forest foundation species under future climate change in China

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 942, P. 173784 - 173784

Published: June 7, 2024

Language: Английский

---

Geographical Distribution and Ecological Niche Changes of Four Evergreen Broad-Leaved Quercus Species in China Under Climate Change

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Quercus species plays a key role in maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem stability as an important component of forest ecology. However, conservation researches on changes the geographic distribution ecological niche have been limited. In this study, we employed optimized MaxEnt model to simulate potential dynamics four evergreen broad-leaved (Q.baronii, Q.dolicholepis, Q.glauca, Q.spinosa) Yangtze Yellow River basins under different climate scenarios (SSP126 SSP585) 2050s 2070s. The relative contribution environmental factors future these was assessed through modeling. results show that Precipitation Coldest Quarter (bio19) Temperature Annual Range (bio7) are most affecting species. Habitat suitability for Q. baronii spinosa trended downward, while dolicholepis glauca expanded their habitat ranges. addition, change led significant contraction baronii, dolicholepis, SSP585-2050s scenario, had more pronounced effect expansion broadleaf other scenarios.

Language: Английский

---

Predicting Suitable Spatial Distribution Areas for Urban Trees Under Climate Change Scenarios Using Species Distribution Models: A Case Study of Michelia chapensis

Land, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 14(3), P. 638 - 638

Published: March 18, 2025

Climate change has presented considerable challenges in the management of urban forests and trees. Varieties studies have predicted potential changes species distribution by employing single-algorithm models (SDMs) to investigate impacts climate on plant species. However, there is still limited quantitative research suitable ranges commonly used tree Therefore, our study aims optimize traditional SDMs integrating multiple machine learning algorithms propose a framework for identifying trees under change. We took Michelia chapensis, particular significance southern China, as pilot evolution its range context two future scenarios (SSP126 SSP585) across four periods (2030s, 2050s, 2070s, 2090s). The findings indicated that ensemble SDM showed strong predictive capacity, with an area curve (AUC) value 0.95. chapensis estimated at 15.9 × 105 km2 currently it will expand most areas according projection. contract southeastern Yunnan, central Guangdong, Sichuan Basin, northern Hubei, Jiangxi, etc. location current located Hengyang, Hunan (27.36° N, 112.34° E), projected shift westward future. migration magnitude positively correlated intensity These provide scientific basis landscape planning chapensis. Furthermore, proposed can be seen valuable tool predicting response change, providing insights proactive adaptation management.

Language: Английский

---

Orogeny and High Pollen Flow as Driving Forces for High Genetic Diversity of Endangered Acer griseum (Franch.) Pax Endemic to China

International Journal of Molecular Sciences, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 26(2), P. 574 - 574

Published: Jan. 11, 2025

Acer griseum (Franch.) Pax is an endangered species endemic to China, mainly scattered in the Qinling–Daba Mountains. The genetic diversity of 17 natural populations were analyzed by nuclear DNA (nDNA) and chloroplast (cpDNA) explore driving forces for its microevolution. A high level (nDNA: He = 0.296, cpDNA: Ht 0.806) was found A. griseum. Genetic variation within (92.52%) based on nDNA, while it among (96.26%) cpDNA. seventeen divided into two groups, corresponding subtropical zone (Group I) temperate II), with haplotype 4 (Hap4) Hap5 being most common haplotypes, respectively. Consequently, genes associated heat heavy metal stress identified Group I, related salt drought II. Haplotype differentiation driven heterogeneous microenvironment caused uplifting Qinling-Daba Mountains, which a vital source diversity. Furthermore, uplifted mountains may bridge pollen flow populations, whereas rivers can result low seed has led incongruent structure between nDNA This study represents new perspective that geological events, especially orogeny, play important role plant microevolution through establishment maternal provides meaningful conservation strategy Overall, Mountains not only are cradles but also provided refugia during Quaternary glacial period.

Language: Английский

---

Advancements in ecological niche models for forest adaptation to climate change: a comprehensive review

Biological reviews/Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: April 3, 2025

ABSTRACT Climate change poses significant challenges to the health and functions of forest ecosystems. Ecological niche models have emerged as crucial tools for understanding impact climate on forests at population, species, ecosystem levels. These also play a pivotal role in developing adaptive conservation management strategies. Recent advancements model development led enhanced prediction accuracy broadened applications models, driven using high‐quality data, improved algorithms, application landscape genomic information. In this review, we start by elucidating concept rationale behind context forestry adaptation change. We then provide an overview occurrence‐based, trait‐based, genomics‐based contributing more comprehensive species responses addition, summarize findings from 338 studies highlight progress made tree including data sources, future scenarios used diverse applications. To assist researchers practitioners, exemplar set accompanying source code tutorial, demonstrating integration population genetics into models. This paper aims concise yet continuous refinements serving valuable resource effectively addressing posed changing climate.

Language: Английский

---

Geographical Distribution Dynamics of Acorus calamus in China Under Climate Change

Plants, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 13(23), P. 3352 - 3352

Published: Nov. 29, 2024

Acorus calamus, a perennial emergent herb, is highly valued for its ornamental appeal, water purification ability, and medicinal properties. However, there significant contradiction between the rapidly increasing demand A. calamus diminishing wild resources. Understanding geographical distribution influence of global climate change on imperative establishing theoretical framework conservation natural resources expansion cultivation. In this study, 266 records 18 selected key environmental factors were utilized to construct an optimal MaxEnt model via ENMeval package. We simulated potential distributions under current conditions three different scenarios (SSP126, SSP370, SSP585) in 2050s, 2070s, 2090s. Additionally, we employed jackknife method response curves identify with greatest their intervals. The results indicate that regularization multiplier (RM) 3.5 feature combinations (FC) linear (L), quadratic (Q), hinge (H), product (P) are parameter combinations. With these parameters, predictions accurate, consistency significant. dominant thresholds affecting precipitation wettest month (≥109.87 mm), human footprint (≥5.39), annual (≥388.56 mean diurnal range (≤12.83 °C). primary land use types include rivers channels, reservoirs ponds, lakes, urban areas, marshes, other constructed lands, rice fields, forested shrublands. Under conditions, suitable China clearly located east 400 mm line, high- low-suitability areas covering 121.12 × 104 km2, 164.20 respectively. future both low- suitability projected increase significantly, whereas unsuitable expected decrease, centroid each zone shifting northward. This study provides foundation sustainable utilization, production planning, development strategies germplasm calamus.

Language: Английский

---

Shrinking horizons: Climate-induced range shifts and conservation status of hickory trees (Carya Nutt.)

Ecological Informatics, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 102910 - 102910

Published: Nov. 1, 2024

Language: Английский

---

Selection of Global Climate Models (GCMs) for Climate Change Analysis Using t-Distributed Stochastic Neighbour Embedding (t-SNE): Implications of Future Bioclimatic Shifts on Forest Trees in Tunisia and Algeria

Journal of Geovisualization and Spatial Analysis, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 9(1)

Published: Dec. 15, 2024

Language: Английский

---

Predicting the habitat suitability and niche dynamics of two Ziziphus species in response to climate change

Authorea (Authorea), Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: March 18, 2024

Climate change, a global threat of utmost significance, has the potential to trigger shifts in biodiversity distribution and emergence novel ecological communities. For species with limited dispersal abilities or geographical barriers within their range, niche conservatism can further constrain ability colonize thrive future suitable habitats, rendering them more vulnerable effects climate change. In this study, an ensemble modeling framework climatic dynamics analysis were employed forecast impact change on dimensions transferability two indicator species, namely, Ziziphus spina-christi nummularia, Iran. Our revealed that, under optimistic pessimistic scenarios, habitat suitability for Z. will expand during 2041-2070 2071-2100, predominantly towards higher latitudes. contrast, nummularia is anticipated experience general decline same periods resulting loss portions its southern range. examination unveiled relatively low observed overlap between species. Randomization tests underscored adherence these historical niches, suggesting challenges adapting changing conditions. The integration predictive models indicates that may encounter difficulties migrating tracked niches distant habitats due preserved niches. Given high sensitivity arid ecosystems environmental disturbances slow recovery rates, repercussions land are indeed profound irrevocable. Conservation management measures, including identifying priority areas creating artificial crucial protect species’ habitats.The study’s conclusions valuable conservation authorities, local stakeholders, individuals dedicated preserving study area.

Language: Английский

---

Habitat Analysis and Conservation Priorities for the Endangered Spotted Linsang in China: Insights from Infrared Camera Data and Species Distribution Modeling

Published: Jan. 1, 2024

Spotted linsang is an endangered Prionodontidae species mainly distributed in southwestern China and Southeast Asia. In recent years, the habitat of spotted has dramatically decreased owing to impacts climate change anthropological activities. Existing studies on have focused genomics-related content; however, few predicting conservation status. this study, we analyzed activity rhythms preferences using infrared camera data obtained from Chebaling National Nature Reserve. Based MaxEnt model, established a distribution model combining bioclimatic, topographic, vegetation, human footprint clarify gaps priority areas China. Our results indicate that typical nocturnal mammal, with its peak period occurring autumn. It inhabits evergreen broad-leaved forests evergreen-deciduous broadleaved mixed at elevations < 1000 m. Its suitable region China, accounting for approximately 15.67% China's total land area. Annual temperature range, annual precipitation, precipitation driest month, mean diurnal normalized difference vegetation index, type are six main factors influencing linsang. There significant 12 provinces where distributed, unprotected outside nature reserves constituting > 85% Priority include Hengduan Mountains, border Guangxi Guangdong, northeastern regions Fujian Province. These elucidate behavioral patterns provide reference future targeted efforts

Language: Английский

---