Springer eBooks, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 65 - 77
Published: Jan. 1, 2024
Language: Английский
Springer eBooks, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 65 - 77
Published: Jan. 1, 2024
Language: Английский
Water Air & Soil Pollution, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 235(3)
Published: March 1, 2024
Language: Английский
Citations
12The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 960, P. 178172 - 178172
Published: Jan. 1, 2025
The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted shortcomings in forecasting models, such as unreliable inputs/outputs and poor performance at critical points. As remains a threat, it is imperative to improve current approaches by incorporating reliable data alternative targets better inform decision-makers. Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has emerged viable method track transmission, offering more metric than reported cases for outcomes like hospitalizations. Recognizing the natural alignment of wastewater systems with city structures, ideal leveraging WBE data, this study introduces multi-city, wastewater-based model categorically predict Using hospitalization six US cities, accompanied other epidemiological variables, we develop Generalized Additive Model (GAM) generate two categorization types. Hospitaization Capacity Risk Categorization (HCR) predicts burden on healthcare system based number available hospital beds city. Hospitalization Rate Trend (HRT) trajectory growth rate these categorical thresholds, create probabilistic forecasts retrospectively risk trend category cities over 20-month period 1, 2, 3 week windows. We also propose new methodology measure change points, or time periods where sudden changes outbreak dynamics occurred. explore influence predictor hospitalizations, showing its inclusion positively impacts model's performance. With study, are able capacity disease trends novel useful way, giving decision-makers tool
Language: Английский
Citations
1The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 966, P. 178674 - 178674
Published: Feb. 1, 2025
Wastewater surveillance has become a fundamental tool to monitor the circulation of SARS-CoV-2 in order prepare timely public health responses. In this study we integrate available clinical data on hospital admissions with wastewater and investigate if predictions number due COVID-19 Danish hospitals are improved by including concentrations SARS-CoV-2. We implement state space models describe relationship between COVID-19, three-week classification delay, more recent numbers total COVID-19. Including SARS-CoV-2, consider five-week As result translate into two hindcasts, one nowcast forecasts. The predicted values for all time frames follow observed well. find that log likelihood higher when (across horizons) lagging observations whether changes occur before does not further improvements. Our shows improve estimates implying add valuable information about underlying transmission imminent development near-future disease burden from is better informed carefully concentrations.
Language: Английский
Citations
0Elsevier eBooks, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 315 - 331
Published: Jan. 1, 2024
Language: Английский
Citations
2Elsevier eBooks, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 237 - 255
Published: Jan. 1, 2024
Language: Английский
Citations
2Published: Jan. 1, 2024
Language: Английский
Citations
1Published: Jan. 1, 2024
Language: Английский
Citations
1Published: Jan. 1, 2024
Language: Английский
Citations
1Published: Jan. 1, 2024
Language: Английский
Citations
1Water Research, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 268, P. 122671 - 122671
Published: Oct. 20, 2024
Language: Английский
Citations
1