Simulation and Forecast of Coastal Ecosystem Services in Jiaodong Peninsula Based on SSP-RCP Scenarios DOI Creative Commons

Wenhui Guo,

Ranghui Wang,

Fanhui Meng

et al.

Remote Sensing, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 16(19), P. 3614 - 3614

Published: Sept. 27, 2024

This study simulated the spatiotemporal changes in coastal ecosystem services (ESs) Jiaodong Peninsula from 2000 to 2050 and analyzed driving mechanisms of climate change human activities with respect ESs, aiming provide policy recommendations that promote regional sustainable development. Future land use were forecast based on scenarios Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The Integrated Valuation Ecosystem Services Tradeoffs (InVEST) model was used assess ESs such as water yield (WY), carbon storage (CS), soil retention (SR), habitat quality (HQ). Key drivers identified using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). Results demonstrate following: (1) High WY are concentrated built-up areas, while high CS, HQ, SR mainly found mountainous hilly regions extensive forests grasslands. (2) By 2050, CS HQ will show a gradual degradation trend, annual variations closely related precipitation. Among different scenarios, most severe ES occurs under SSP5-8.5 scenario, SSP1-2.6 scenario shows relatively less degradation. (3) SEM analysis indicates urbanization leads continuous declines topographic factors controlling spatial distribution four ESs. Climate can directly influence SR, their impact is stronger higher activity intensity than those lower intensity. (4) Considering combined effects we recommend future development decisions be made rationally control give greater consideration context change.

Language: Английский

Projecting LUCC dynamics and ecosystem services in an emerging urban agglomeration under SSP-RCP scenarios and their management implications DOI

Qiaobin Chen,

Ying Ning

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 949, P. 175100 - 175100

Published: July 29, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

16
Impacts of Future Climate Change and Xiamen’s Territorial Spatial Planning on Carbon Storage and Sequestration DOI Creative Commons
Wei Zhu, Ting Lan, Lina Tang

et al.

Remote Sensing, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 17(2), P. 273 - 273

Published: Jan. 14, 2025

The intensification of climate change and the implementation territorial spatial planning policies have jointly increased complexity future carbon storage changes. However, impact on under remains unclear. Therefore, this study aims to reveal potential impacts sequestration, providing decision support for addressing optimizing planning. We employed FLUS model, InVEST variance partitioning analysis (VPA) method simulate 15 different scenarios that combine Xiamen in 2035, quantify individual combined ecosystem sequestration. results showed (1) by Xiamen’s capacity is expected range from 32.66 × 106 Mg 33.00 various scenarios, reflecting a decrease 2020 levels; (2) conducive preserving storage, with urban development boundary proving be most effective; (3) greatly affected change, RCP 4.5 more effective than 8.5 maintaining higher levels storage; (4) influence sequestration consistently exceeds particularly high-emission where regulatory effect especially significant.

Language: Английский

Citations

2
Spatiotemporal simulation of blue-green space pattern evolution and carbon storage under different SSP-RCP scenarios in Wuhan DOI Creative Commons
Guiyuan Li,

Wang-Zhen Wang,

Bowen Li

et al.

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 15(1)

Published: Feb. 1, 2025

Rapid socioeconomic growth has altered land use patterns, resulting in a surge worldwide CO2 emissions, triggering global climate challenges and adversely affecting human health, safety, sustainable development. As result, immediate action is required to undertake mitigation adaptation strategies. This study, based on the causal logic of change, blue-green space carbon uses system dynamics (SD) model, patch-generating simulation (PLUS) integrated valuation ecosystem service trade-offs (InVEST) models simulate evolution patterns predict spatial distribution storage Wuhan 2060 from 2030 under three SSP-RCP scenarios CMIP6 investigates their mechanisms. The findings show that across various scenarios, would decline over next 30 years, with green spaces decreasing some amount blue growing marginally. also expected due shrinking patterns. SSP126 scenario least shrinkage spaces, reduction 7.18Tg storage. Under SSP245 scenario, expansion non-blue-green encroaches an 8.13 Tg decrease Across SSP585 expand fastest, highest loss considerable drop 11.67 Tg. research extremely important for optimizing regional coordinating high-quality development Wuhan, assisting implementation urban change plans.

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Assessment and multi-scenario prediction of ecosystem services in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau based on machine learning and the PLUS model DOI Creative Commons
Yuan Li, Yuling Peng,

H. P. Peng

et al.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 13

Published: Feb. 18, 2025

Introduction Machine learning techniques, renowned for their ability to process complex datasets and uncover key ecological patterns, have become increasingly instrumental in assessing ecosystem services. Methods This study quantitatively evaluates individual services—such as water yield, carbon storage, habitat quality, soil conservation—on the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau years 2000, 2010, 2020. A comprehensive service index is employed assess overall capacity, revealing spatiotemporal variations services exploring trade-offs synergies among them. Additionally, machine models identify drivers influencing services, informing design of future scenarios. The PLUS model used project land use changes by 2035 under three scenarios—natural development, planning-oriented, priority. Based on simulation results these scenarios, InVEST applied evaluate various Results During 2000-2020, exhibited significant fluctuations, driven synergies. Land vegetation cover were primary factors affecting with priority scenario demonstrating best performance across all Discussion research integrates model, providing more efficient data interpretation precise design, offering new insights methodologies managing optimizing Plateau. These findings contribute development effective protection sustainable strategies, applicable both plateau similar regions.

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Spatial heterogeneity and driving mechanisms of carbon storage in the urban agglomeration within complex terrain: Multi-scale analyses under localized SSP-RCP narratives DOI
Hongyi Zhang, Xin Li, Yanping Luo

et al.

Sustainable Cities and Society, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 109, P. 105520 - 105520

Published: May 23, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

7
Assessment of regional Ecosystem Service Bundles coupling climate and land use changes DOI Creative Commons
Hao Su, Mingxi Du, Qiuyu Liu

et al.

Ecological Indicators, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 169, P. 112844 - 112844

Published: Nov. 16, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

7
Multiscale coupled development and linkage response evaluation of China's carbon neutrality and sustainable development capability–A quantitative analysis perspective DOI
Wei Guo,

Ling Lv,

Xuesheng Zhao

et al.

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 200, P. 114569 - 114569

Published: May 21, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

6
Climate change and urban sprawl: Unveiling the escalating flood risks in river deltas with a deep dive into the GBM river delta DOI

Shupu Wu,

Xudong Zhou, Johan Reyns

et al.

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 947, P. 174703 - 174703

Published: Oct. 1, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

5
Spatial Optimization of Land Use and Carbon Storage Prediction in Urban Agglomerations under Climate Change: Different Scenarios and Multiscale Perspectives of CMIP6 DOI
Hao Wu, Yi Yang, Wen Li

et al.

Sustainable Cities and Society, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 105920 - 105920

Published: Oct. 1, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

4
Carbon Storage Response to Land Use/Land Cover Changes and SSP‐RCP Scenarios Simulation: A Case Study in Yunnan Province, China DOI Creative Commons
Jing Liu, Kun Yang, Shaohua Zhang

et al.

Ecology and Evolution, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 15(1)

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

ABSTRACT Changes in terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage (CS) affect the global cycle, thereby influencing climate change. Land use/land cover (LULC) shifts are key drivers of CS changes, making it crucial to predict their impact on for low‐carbon development. Most studies model future LULC by adjusting change proportions, leading overly subjective simulations. We integrated Integrated Valuation Ecosystem Services and Trade‐offs (InVEST) model, Patch‐generating Use Simulation (PLUS) Harmonization 2 (LUH2) dataset simulate Yunnan under different SSP‐RCP scenarios economic Within new PLUS‐InVEST‐LUH2 framework, we systematically analyzed alterations effects from 1980 2040. Results demonstrated that: (1) Forestland had highest CS, whereas built‐up land water showed minimal levels. Western areas boast higher while east has lower. From 2020, continuously decreased 29.55 Tg. In wake population increase advancement, area expanded 2.75 times. Built‐up encroaches other categories is a cause reduction CS. (2) 2020 2040, mainly due an forestland, rose 3934.65 Tg SSP1‐2.6 scenario, SSP2‐4.5 primarily forestland grassland areas, declined 3800.86 (3) primary contributor ongoing enlargement causing sustained decline Scenario simulations indicate that changes will have significant Yunnan. Under green sustainable development pathway, can exhibit sink potential. Overall, this research offers scientific reference optimizing management Yunnan, aiding China's “double carbon” goals.

Language: Английский

Citations

0