Authorea (Authorea),
Journal Year:
2024,
Volume and Issue:
unknown
Published: June 21, 2024
Progress
of
global
warming
poses
a
great
risk
to
river
systems.
However,
how
heatwaves’
characteristics
change
under
climate
is
still
poorly
understood.
In
this
study,
long-term
reconstructed
daily
water
temperatures
(RWT)
from
125
hydrological
stations
in
70
rivers
across
Poland,
were
used.
Bayesian
estimator
abrupt
change,
seasonal
and
trend
(BEAST)
method
was
used
track
the
changes
RWT.
BEAST
analysis
reveals
significant
temporal
spatial
variability
temperature
trends
influenced
by
natural
anthropogenic
factors.
Notably,
1980s
1990s
saw
maximum
changes.
Southern
particularly
mountainous
regions,
exhibits
more
pronounced
severe
heatwaves
compared
milder
northern
regions.
Moreover,
heatwaves,
including
number,
duration,
intensity,
category,
evaluated.
The
results
showed
that
121
out
significantly
increased
frequency
intensity
heatwaves.
For
all
stations,
majority
belong
category
‘moderate’,
followed
‘strong’,
‘severe’,
then
‘extreme’.
Characteristics
correlated
with
air
temperatures.
average
correlation
coefficients
0.624,
0.631,
0.604
for
duration
cumulative
respectively.
indicated
temperatures,
tend
increase
intensity.
addition,
intensify
low
flow
conditions.
further
suggest
mitigation
measures
shall
be
taken
reduce
effects
on
