Land,
Journal Year:
2025,
Volume and Issue:
14(3), P. 441 - 441
Published: Feb. 20, 2025
Under
climate
change
and
human
activities,
ecosystem
service
(ES)
research
lacks
systematic
approaches
scientific
depth.
This
study
develops
a
comprehensive
framework
integrating
advanced
models
to
predict
ESs,
analyze
interactions,
identify
key
drivers,
assess
spatial
effects
on
the
Zoigê
Plateau.
The
results
indicate
following:
(1)
From
2000
2020
across
three
2040
scenarios,
water
conservation
(WC)
improves,
while
carbon
storage
(CS)
habitat
quality
(HQ)
decline,
leading
overall
ES
degradation.
Core
areas
face
rising
degradation
risks
from
9%
29%
under
increasing
environmental
stress
(SSP119
SSP585).
(2)
importance
follows
HQ
>
CS
SC
WC,
with
bivariate
interactions
outperforming
single-factor
effects.
Future
scenarios
show
weakened
correlating
higher
ecological
stress,
indicating
stability
risks.
(3)
Land
use
(>40%
explanatory
power)
is
primary
driver,
urban
expansion,
slope,
evapotranspiration,
precipitation
contribute
(6–12%).
(4)
drivers
showed
weak
patterns
but
became
more
stable
future
suggesting
stronger
control.
provides
methodological
paradigm
for
analysis
supports
planning
in
alpine
wetland–grassland
regions.
