Climate Change Effects on Land Use and Land Cover Suitability in the Southern Brazilian Semiarid Region DOI Creative Commons
Lucas Augusto Pereira da Silva, Edson Eyji Sano, Taya Cristo Parreiras

et al.

Land, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 13(12), P. 2008 - 2008

Published: Nov. 25, 2024

Climate change is expected to alter the environmental suitability of land use and cover (LULC) classes globally. In this study, we investigated potential impacts climate on most representative LULC in southern Brazilian semiarid region. We employed Random Forest algorithm trained with climatic, soil, topographic data project future under Representative Concentration Pathway RCP 2.6 (optimistic) 8.5 (pessimistic) scenarios. The included mean annual air temperature precipitation from WorldClim2 platform for historical (1970–2000) (2061–2080) Soil were obtained SoilGrids 2.1 digital soil mapping platform, while produced by NASA’s Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). Our model achieved an overall accuracy 60%. Under worst-case scenario (RCP 8.5), croplands may lose approximately 8% their suitable area, pastures are expand up 30%. Areas savannas increase both scenarios, potentially expanding into lands historically occupied forests, grasslands, eucalyptus plantations. These projected changes lead biodiversity loss socioeconomic disruptions study area.

Language: Английский

Climate Change Effects on Land Use and Land Cover Suitability in the Southern Brazilian Semiarid Region DOI Creative Commons
Lucas Augusto Pereira da Silva, Edson Eyji Sano, Taya Cristo Parreiras

et al.

Land, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 13(12), P. 2008 - 2008

Published: Nov. 25, 2024

Climate change is expected to alter the environmental suitability of land use and cover (LULC) classes globally. In this study, we investigated potential impacts climate on most representative LULC in southern Brazilian semiarid region. We employed Random Forest algorithm trained with climatic, soil, topographic data project future under Representative Concentration Pathway RCP 2.6 (optimistic) 8.5 (pessimistic) scenarios. The included mean annual air temperature precipitation from WorldClim2 platform for historical (1970–2000) (2061–2080) Soil were obtained SoilGrids 2.1 digital soil mapping platform, while produced by NASA’s Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). Our model achieved an overall accuracy 60%. Under worst-case scenario (RCP 8.5), croplands may lose approximately 8% their suitable area, pastures are expand up 30%. Areas savannas increase both scenarios, potentially expanding into lands historically occupied forests, grasslands, eucalyptus plantations. These projected changes lead biodiversity loss socioeconomic disruptions study area.

Language: Английский

Citations

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