Impacts of Climate Change on the Potential Suitable Ecological Niches of the Endemic and Endangered Conifer Pinus bungeana in China

Forests, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 16(3), P. 462 - 462

Published: March 5, 2025

As climate change continues to alter species distributions, Pinus bungeana, an endangered conifer of significant ecological and ornamental value, faces heightened vulnerability, underscoring the critical need understand predict its future habitat shifts. Here, we used 83 effective geographic distribution records, along with climate, topography, soil, drought indices, simulate potential suitable niches for P. bungeana under current conditions across three time periods (2040–2060, 2060–2080, 2080–2100) two shared socioeconomic pathways: SSP126 (low emissions) SSP585 (high emissions), using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model. The results show that area receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) all simulations exceeded 0.973, indicating high predictive accuracy. Soil moisture, minimum temperature coldest month, seasonality, isothermality, precipitation wettest quarter, altitude were identified as key environmental factors limiting soil moisture month being most important factors. Under climatic conditions, potentially primarily located in Shaanxi Province, southern Shanxi southeastern Gansu northeastern Sichuan Henan northwestern Hubei covering approximately 75.59 × 104 km2. However, scenarios, highly areas projected contract, rate decline varying significantly between scenarios. Despite this, total was predicted expand periods. Additionally, a pronounced eastward shift bungeana’s projected, especially high-emission scenario. These findings provide insights into impacts on they offer valuable guidance conservation strategies management context change.

Language: Английский

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Geographical Distribution and Ecological Niche Changes of Four Evergreen Broad-Leaved Quercus Species in China Under Climate Change

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Quercus species plays a key role in maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem stability as an important component of forest ecology. However, conservation researches on changes the geographic distribution ecological niche have been limited. In this study, we employed optimized MaxEnt model to simulate potential dynamics four evergreen broad-leaved (Q.baronii, Q.dolicholepis, Q.glauca, Q.spinosa) Yangtze Yellow River basins under different climate scenarios (SSP126 SSP585) 2050s 2070s. The relative contribution environmental factors future these was assessed through modeling. results show that Precipitation Coldest Quarter (bio19) Temperature Annual Range (bio7) are most affecting species. Habitat suitability for Q. baronii spinosa trended downward, while dolicholepis glauca expanded their habitat ranges. addition, change led significant contraction baronii, dolicholepis, SSP585-2050s scenario, had more pronounced effect expansion broadleaf other scenarios.

Language: Английский

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Protection of Passeriformes Birds in Wetland Ecological Restoration: A Case Study of the Reed Parrotbill (Paradoxornis heudei) in Baiyangdian

Diversity, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 17(1), P. 75 - 75

Published: Jan. 20, 2025

Due to the increasing impact of human activities on environment, habitat loss, fragmentation, and degradation pose significant threats bird diversity worldwide. Baiyangdian, largest freshwater lake wetland in North China, is an important for birds. The water quality caused by decaying reed rhizomes has prompted governmental initiatives ecological restoration Baiyangdian. However, it also led destruction habitats within wetlands consequently. Bird species that rely these habitats, especially parrotbill, face a threat, necessitating establishment reserves mitigate loss diversity. Our research aims identify potential suitable parrotbill Baiyangdian establish priority conservation areas. Using environmental factors determined with Google Earth Engine (GEE), ultimately we designated following areas as zones: Fuhe Wetland (FHW), area south Beihezhuang (BHV), both sides Bridge (BYDB), western shoreline Shaochedian (SCD), Yannandi Park (YNDP), east Guangdianzhangzhuang Village (GDZZV), Dongtianzhuang (DTV), north Xilizhuang (XLV), Caiputai (CPTV), Gaolou (GLV), Xiaoyihe (XYW). findings provide scientific reference projects region offer supporting data management parrotbill.

Language: Английский

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Impact of climate change on the potential global prevalence of Macrophomina phaseolina (Tassi) Goid. under several climatological scenarios

Frontiers in Plant Science, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 16

Published: April 16, 2025

Climate change forms one of the most dangerous problems that disturb earth today. It not only devastates environment but also affects biodiversity living organisms, including fungi. Macrophomina phaseolina (Tassi) Goid. is pervasive and destructive soil-borne fungus threatens food security, so predicting its current future distribution will aid in following emergence new regions taking precautionary measures to control it. Throughout this work, there are about 324 records M. were used model global prevalence using 19 environmental covariates under several climate scenarios for analysis. Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) was predict spatial throughout world while algorithms DIVA-GIS chosen confirm predicted model. Based on Jackknife test, minimum temperature coldest month (bio_6) represented effective bioclimatological parameter with a 52.5% contribution. Two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 8.5 (GCM) code MG, forecast spreading 2050 2070. The area curve (AUC) true skill statistics (TSS) assigned evaluate resulted models values equal 0.902 ± 0.009 0.8, respectively. These indicated satisfactory significant correlation between ecology fungus. Two-dimensional niche analysis illustrated could adapt wide range temperatures (9 °C 28 °C), annual rainfall ranges from 0 mm 2000 mm. In future, Africa become low habitat suitability Europe good place distribution. MaxEnt potentially useful changing climate, results need further intensive evaluation more ecological parameters other than data.

Language: Английский

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The potential spatiotemporal distribution patterns of Avena nuda and Avena sativa from global perspective provide new insights for the cultivation of commonly cultivated oats

BMC Plant Biology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 25(1)

Published: April 28, 2025

Commonly cultivated oats (Avena nuda and Avena sativa) play an important role in agricultural planting structure adjustment, ecological environment protection grassland animal husbandry development, their effective cultivation is conducive to food security degradation restoration. This study comprehensively collected the geographic distribution environmental data of A. sativa from global regions, ensembled niche Marxan model were used predict potential spatiotemporal pattern commonly oats, further explore factors that affected spatial genetic diversity pattern. The results showed that: (1) suitability regions concentrated plateau (spanning 25°~45°N, 90°~125°E; 40°~60°N, 10°W ~ 35°E) plain 35°~65°N, 55°E; 30°~50°N, 65°W 100°E), respectively. (2) Over time, expanding trend. (3) widely distributed Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Mongolia West Siberian Plain, Iran Bavaria Plateau Yukon Plateau; Central Great Plains North America, Mississippi River Midland Bode Western Europe Eastern Siberia Australia Plain Plateau. (4) current period was responsive temperature habitat conditions. In addition, distance mean diurnal air range (bio02), seasonality (bio04), precipitation amount driest month (bio14), (bio15), monthly coldest quarter (bio19), while only by annual (bio01). aims patterns clarify provide theoretical basis for collection, preservation utilization oat population resources. Not applicable.

Language: Английский

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MaxEnt-Based Distribution Modeling of the Invasive Species Phragmites australis Under Climate Change Conditions in Iraq

Plants, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 14(5), P. 768 - 768

Published: March 2, 2025

Phragmites australis (common reed), a recently introduced invasive species in Iraq, has swiftly established itself as vigorous perennial plant, significantly impacting the biodiversity and ecosystem functions of Iraqi ecoregions with alarming consequences. There is an insufficient understanding both current distribution possible future trends under climate change scenarios. Consequently, this study seeks to model potential Iraq using machine learning techniques (i.e., MaxEnt) alongside geospatial tools integrated within GIS framework. Land-cover features, such herbaceous zones, wetlands, annual precipitation, elevation, emerged optimal conditioning factors for supporting species’ invasiveness habitat through vegetation cover moisture retention. These collectively contributed by nearly 85% P. Iraq. In addition, results indicate net decline high-suitability habitats SSP126 (moderate mitigation; 5.33% loss) SSP585 (high emissions; 6.74% scenarios, losses concentrated southern northern The demonstrated robust reliability, achieving AUC score 0.9 ± 0.012, which reflects high predictive accuracy. area covers approximately 430,632.17 km2, 64,065.66 km2 (14.87% total region) was classified australis. While projections overall (5.33% (6.74% loss)) suitable across certain localized regions may experience increased suitability, reflecting gains (3.58% gain) (1.82% gain)) specific areas. Policymakers should focus on emerging suitability risks proactive monitoring management. Additionally, areas already infested require enhanced surveillance containment measures mitigate ecological socioeconomic impacts.

Language: Английский

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Modeling the Potential Distribution and Future Dynamics of Important Vector Culex tritaeniorhynchus Under Climate Change Scenarios in China

Insects, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 16(4), P. 382 - 382

Published: April 3, 2025

In the context of global warming, there is an increasing risk emergence and re-emergence vector-borne diseases (VBDs). As one most important vectors, Culex tritaeniorhynchus can carry transmit numerous human animal infectious pathogens. To better understand current distribution possible future dynamics Cx. in China, ecological niche modeling approach (MaxEnt) was adopted to model its habitat suitability. The comprehensive dataset (1100 occurrence records) China date established for training. Multiple climate models (GCMs) change scenarios were introduced into counter uncertainties change. Based on prediction, currently exhibits high suitability southern, central, coastal regions China. It projected that suitable will experience continuous expansion, core anticipated shift northward 21st century (by 2050s, 2070s 2090s). Several environmental variables reflect temperature, precipitation, land-use conditions considered have a significant influence tritaeniorhynchus, among which annual mean temperature urban land contribute model. Our study conducted quantitative analysis expansion habitats providing references vector monitoring prevention control VBDs.

Language: Английский

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Global climate change and its impact on the distribution and efficacy of Bacillus thuringiensis as a biopesticide

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 958, P. 178091 - 178091

Published: Dec. 20, 2024

Language: Английский

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Analyzing the distribution patterns and dynamic niche of Magnolia grandiflora L. in the United States and China in response to climate change

Frontiers in Plant Science, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15

Published: Oct. 22, 2024

Introduction Magnolia grandiflora L. (southern magnolia) is native to the southeastern coastal areas of United States, from North Carolina eastern Texas (USDA Cold Hardiness Zone 8). It currently widely cultivated in Zones 5-10 U.S. and southern Yangtze River regions China. Limited studies have examined effects climate change human activities on geographical distribution adaptability M. during its introduction Methods We selected 127 occurrence points 87 China, along with 43 environmental variables, predict suitable habitat for using present data (1970-2000) projected future (2050-2070) based a complete niche ensemble model (EM) Biomod2 package. also predicted both countries 'ecospat' package R. Results The models demonstrated high reliability, an AUC 0.993 TSS 0.932. Solar radiation July, impact index, precipitation wettest month were identified as most critical variables influencing distribution. species shows similar trend expansion under scenarios countries, expansions towards northwest northeast, contractions regions. Discussion Our study emphasizes practical framework predicting habitats migration Magnoliaceae scenarios. These findings provide valuable insights. conservation, introduction, management strategies, sustainable utilization grandiflora.

Language: Английский

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