Sea-Level Rise and Saltwater Intrusion: Economic Estimates of Impacts of Nature-Based Mitigation Policies Under Uncertainty DOI Open Access
Dat Q. Tran, Kieu Ngoc Le

Water, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 17(9), P. 1355 - 1355

Published: April 30, 2025

Increased saltwater intrusion likely causes a significant reduction in food production alluvial river deltas worldwide. One of the mitigation measures for is to increase natural flow through irrigation water conservation and land-fallowing policies prevent from moving further inland. However, economic estimates costs such under uncertainty are scant. Herein, we develop an integrated modeling framework estimating by 2050 Mekong Delta. The model combines hydrodynamic, advection-dispersion, statistical, crop yield, models, thus allowing us account risk policies. We found that 95% confidence interval intrusion-impacted area estimated be 186,000–201,000 hectares baseline, 193,000–209,000 sea level rise 22 cm, 204,000–219,000 53 cm scenarios, respectively. To bring back baseline level, 100,000–150,000 currently cultivated rice would need fallowed at least once year. This equivalent annual losses, with 50% chance, ranging $100.03–$176.67 million, implying substantial cost rise-induced even modest scenario. Under scenario, results show widespread adoption alternate wetting drying approximately 300,000 ha needed push level. findings indicate Delta more than not intensify considerably much less predictable, posing greater one most important rice-producing regions world.

Language: Английский

Sea-Level Rise and Saltwater Intrusion: Economic Estimates of Impacts of Nature-Based Mitigation Policies Under Uncertainty DOI Open Access
Dat Q. Tran, Kieu Ngoc Le

Water, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 17(9), P. 1355 - 1355

Published: April 30, 2025

Increased saltwater intrusion likely causes a significant reduction in food production alluvial river deltas worldwide. One of the mitigation measures for is to increase natural flow through irrigation water conservation and land-fallowing policies prevent from moving further inland. However, economic estimates costs such under uncertainty are scant. Herein, we develop an integrated modeling framework estimating by 2050 Mekong Delta. The model combines hydrodynamic, advection-dispersion, statistical, crop yield, models, thus allowing us account risk policies. We found that 95% confidence interval intrusion-impacted area estimated be 186,000–201,000 hectares baseline, 193,000–209,000 sea level rise 22 cm, 204,000–219,000 53 cm scenarios, respectively. To bring back baseline level, 100,000–150,000 currently cultivated rice would need fallowed at least once year. This equivalent annual losses, with 50% chance, ranging $100.03–$176.67 million, implying substantial cost rise-induced even modest scenario. Under scenario, results show widespread adoption alternate wetting drying approximately 300,000 ha needed push level. findings indicate Delta more than not intensify considerably much less predictable, posing greater one most important rice-producing regions world.

Language: Английский

Citations

0