A Stochastic Process-Based Approach for Power System Modeling and Simulation: A Case Study on China’s Long-Term Coal-Fired Power Phaseout

Sustainability, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 17(5), P. 2303 - 2303

Published: March 6, 2025

Power systems hold huge potential for emission reduction, which has made the modeling and pathway simulations of their decarbonizing development a subject widespread interest. However, current studies have not yet provided useful method that can deliver analytical probabilistic information about future system behaviors by considering various uncertainty factors. Therefore, this paper proposes stochastic process-based approach provide solutions ranges, as well changing momentum, accumulation, distributions. Quantitative probabilities certain incidents in power be deduced accordingly, without massive Monte Carlo simulations. A case study on China’s long-term coal-fired phaseout was conducted to demonstrate practical use proposed approach. By at unit level based processes, pathways are probabilistically simulated with consideration national security. Simulations span from 2025 2060, presenting results accumulated uncertainties annual amounts, full-process emissions, carbon efficiencies. Through simulation, achieving peaking 2030 neutrality 2060 91.15% 42.13%, respectively. It is expected there will remain 442 GW capacity 0.18 Gt emissions 2060.

Language: Английский

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Dynamic Characterization and Predictive Control of the Steam-Molten Salt Heat Exchanger in Charging Process

Energy, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 135523 - 135523

Published: March 1, 2025

Language: Английский

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Flexible peak shaving in coal-fired power plants: A comprehensive review of current challenges, recent advances, and future perspectives

Energy, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 136446 - 136446

Published: May 1, 2025

Language: Английский

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Peak shaving performance analysis of a coal-fired power plant integrated with molten salt thermal energy storage system based on energy-potential matching principle

Journal of Energy Storage, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 124, P. 116956 - 116956

Published: May 8, 2025

Language: Английский

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Investigation on heat transfer characteristic of nitrate/nitrite molten salt nanofluids in bidirectional twisted tube

Thermal Science and Engineering Progress, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 103194 - 103194

Published: Dec. 1, 2024

Language: Английский

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Numerical Optimization of Burner Deflection Angle at Half Load for a 660 MW Tangentially Fired Boiler

Processes, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 12(12), P. 2823 - 2823

Published: Dec. 9, 2024

China established a coal power capacity payment mechanism to allow play fundamental supporting and regulating role. It is difficult generate peak for long periods. The effects of variation in over-fire air ratio burner deflection angle were investigated optimize combustion conditions at half load. This simulation based on field data from new 660 MW tangentially fired boiler. results indicate that when the increased 17.6% 27.6%, NOx concentration decreased by about 45.1% burnout zone. 284 mg/m3 156 mg/m3. However, large eddy formed top zone affected flow field. heat transfer horizontal flue was affected. structure can be optimized moderately adjusting (−5°) burner. A further increase angles (−10° −15°) reduced 10%. adequate pulverized Considering overall conditions, it recommended offset downward small angle.

Language: Английский

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