Decoupling and peak prediction of industrial land carbon emissions in East China for developing countries’ prosperous regions

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 15(1)

Published: Feb. 20, 2025

Urban energy consumption is mostly concentrated in industrial regions, and carbon emissions from land use have significantly increased as a result of fast urbanization industrialization. In the battle against climate change, affluent regions developing countries are increasingly being used models for reducing emissions. Therefore, order to accomplish global sustainable development, it crucial understand how decoupled wealthy areas rising nations. This study investigates decoupling effects factors influencing them six East Chinese provinces one city between 2005 2020 using Tapio model LMDI decomposition approach. At same time, 2021 2035 were predicted BP neural network combined with scenario analysis. The findings indicate that: (1) From 29.921 million tons 40.2843 2020, China area nearly doubled. Of these, Shandong Jiangsu emit more than half region's total around China. (2) effect analysis shows trajectory's phased characteristics, degree gradually increasing weak (2006-2012) strong (2013-2018) finally negative (2019-2020). (3) primary causes rise region scale per capita economic output use. (4) overall peak time roughly distributed 2028 2032. It expected that Shanghai, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang will be among first achieve emission peak.

Language: Английский

Carbon neutral spatial zoning and optimization based on land use carbon emission in the qinba mountain region, China

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 15(1)

Published: March 25, 2025

Amid global climate change, the pursuit of low-carbon development has become a unified international goal. The Qinba Mountain region plays an important role in maintaining China's ecological security, making spatial zoning tailored for carbon neutrality vital local sustainable development. Using land use and socioeconomic data from 2000 to 2020 81 county-level units, neutral framework was developed, considering natural, economic, resource factors. This study further integrated spatiotemporal dynamics index multi-scenario predictions future emission (CE) zoning. results revealed that had overall positive net-carbon trend without significant deficits, central faced increased CE northern weak carrying capacity. predicted continued decrease under scenario reached 30.55 million t by 2060, with only nine units failing reach their peaking 2030. Five different zones were identified: sink functional zone, stabilization high-carbon control zone source optimization zone. Tailored strategies each proposed enhance regional environment contribute green These findings offer insights into achieving regions or cities.

Language: Английский