Climate Change and Weather Extremes in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East

Reviews of Geophysics, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 60(3)

Published: June 28, 2022

Abstract Observation‐based and modeling studies have identified the Eastern Mediterranean Middle East (EMME) region as a prominent climate change hotspot. While several initiatives addressed impacts of in parts EMME, here we present an updated assessment, covering wide range timescales, phenomena future pathways. Our assessment is based on revised analysis recent observations projections extensive overview scientific literature causes effects regional change. Greenhouse gas emissions EMME are growing rapidly, surpassing those European Union, hence contributing significantly to Over past half‐century especially during decades, has warmed faster than other inhabited regions. At same time, changes hydrological cycle become evident. The observed temperature increase about 0.45°C per decade projected continue, although strong global greenhouse emission reductions could moderate this trend. In addition mean conditions, call attention extreme weather events with potentially disruptive societal impacts. These include strongly increasing severity duration heatwaves, droughts dust storms, well torrential rain that can trigger flash floods. review complemented by discussion atmospheric pollution land‐use region, including urbanization, desertification forest fires. Finally, identify sectors may be critically affected formulate adaptation research recommendations toward greater resilience

Language: Английский

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Extreme weather and societal impacts in the eastern Mediterranean

Earth System Dynamics, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 13(2), P. 749 - 777

Published: April 11, 2022

Abstract. Gaining a holistic understanding of extreme weather, from its physical drivers to impacts on society and ecosystems, is key supporting future risk reduction preparedness measures. Here, we provide an overview the state art, knowledge gaps open questions in study weather events over vulnerable eastern Mediterranean. This region situated transition zone between subtropical mid-latitude climates. The large-scale atmospheric circulation interaction with regional synoptic systems (i.e., Cyprus Lows, Red Sea Troughs, Persian “Sharav” Lows) high-pressure mainly govern weather. Complex orographic features further play important role generation Most events, including heavy precipitation, cold spells, floods windstorms, are associated Lows or active whereas heat waves related either Troughs sub-tropical summer Sharav Low during springtime. In decades, droughts projected significantly increase both frequency intensity. Changes precipitation may vary sign magnitude depending scale, severity interest. There still relatively large uncertainties concerning changes windstorms compound extremes, as these types received comparatively little attention literature. We identify that relate societal These effects have mortality, morbidity infrastructure Research currently limited this context, recommend strengthening database analyzed case studies. trust can only be suitably accomplished by inter-disciplinary international collaboration (in spite political unrest).

Language: Английский

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Severe droughts in North Africa: A review of drivers, impacts and management

Earth-Science Reviews, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 250, P. 104701 - 104701

Published: Feb. 1, 2024

Language: Английский

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Future changes in the precipitation regime over the Arabian Peninsula with special emphasis on UAE: insights from NEX-GDDP CMIP6 model simulations

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 14(1)

Published: Jan. 2, 2024

Abstract Global warming can profoundly influence the mean climate over Arabian Peninsula, which may significantly both natural and human systems. The present study aims to investigate changes in precipitation regime response change with special emphasis on United Arab Emirates (UAE). This work is performed using a sub-set of high-resolution NASA Earth Exchange Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) data derived from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Climate Models under three different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5). are analyzed phases such as 2021–2050 (near future), 2051–2080 (mid future) 2080–2100 (far period 1985–2014 baseline. represents first attempt utilize NEX-GDDP models project regional patterns across Peninsula. Results suggest that annual expected increase most UAE by up 30%, particularly intense mid-future onwards all scenarios. Specifically, spatiotemporal distribution extremes intensity, 1-day highest precipitation, exceeding 10 mm days increasing; contrast, consecutive dry decrease towards end century. results show extreme scenario relative historical indicate progressive wetting UAE, accompanied increased heavy events reduced spell events, high emission A dataset essential for better understanding patterns, especially regions where more detailed information needed local scale achieve water, food security, environmental sustainability formulate effective adaptation strategies mitigating potential risks consequences associated variations wet conditions.

Language: Английский

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Climate Change in the Mediterranean Basin (Part I): Induced Alterations on Climate Forcings and Hydrological Processes

Water Resources Management, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 37(6-7), P. 2287 - 2305

Published: Dec. 6, 2022

Language: Английский

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Climate change projections for Greece in the 21st century from high-resolution EURO-CORDEX RCM simulations

Atmospheric Research, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 271, P. 106049 - 106049

Published: Jan. 25, 2022

Language: Английский

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Extreme precipitation events

Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Water, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 9(6)

Published: Aug. 19, 2022

Abstract The effect of increased populations concentrated in urban areas, coupled with the ongoing threat climate change, means that society is becoming increasingly vulnerable to effects extreme precipitation. study these events therefore a key topic research, their physical basis, impacts, and our adaptation them. From meteorological perspective, main questions are related definition events, changes distribution intensity both globally regionally, dependence on large‐scale phenomena including role moisture transport, behavior due anthropogenic pressures. In this review article, we address all points propose set challenges for future research. This article categorized under: Science Water > Extremes Hydrological Processes

Language: Английский

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A multi-variable constrained ensemble of regional climate projections under multi-scenarios for Portugal – Part II: Sectoral climate indices

Climate Services, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 30, P. 100377 - 100377

Published: April 1, 2023

Climate indices are developed to determine climate impacts on different socioeconomic sectors, providing a comprehensive communication of complex information arising from change assessments. These may be used by decision-makers properly and timely implement adaptation measures in sectors human activity, such as agriculture crop selection, forest, coastal management, among others. Here, we present analysis estimated for Portugal, known hotspot. A multi-variable 13-member ensemble EURO-CORDEX Regional Model simulations is assess future projections indices, exploring three scenarios until 2100, considering emission scenarios, namely the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 RCP8.5. Aligned with warming drying projected conditions, an increase number summer days very hot expected become more frequent intense, impact over interior regions. Tropical nights common, affecting thermal comfort conditions threatening health. Although show overall reduction wet days, amount precipitation during short-time periods will leading intensification moderate/heavy rainfall. results corroborate that Portugal hotspot, calling efficient policymaking relevant authorities. Indeed, call urgent planning development safeguard critical Portuguese society, agriculture, forests,

Language: Английский

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Seasonal Vegetation Trends for Europe over 30 Years from a Novel Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Time-Series—The TIMELINE NDVI Product

Remote Sensing, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 15(14), P. 3616 - 3616

Published: July 20, 2023

Remote sensing multi-decadal time-series provide important information for analysing long-term environmental change. The Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) has been providing data since the early 1980s. Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived thereof can be used monitoring vegetation conditions. This study presents novel TIMELINE NDVI product, which provides a consistent set of daily, 10-day, and monthly composites at 1 km spatial resolution based on AVHRR Europe North Africa, currently spanning period from 1981 to 2018. After investigating temporal availability within composite seasonal trends have 1989–2018 assess change in northern Africa. trend analysis reveals distinct patterns with varying spring, summer autumn different regions Europe. Integrating entire growing season, result shows positive large areas that confirm reinforce previous research. analyses show product allows dynamics monitored pan-European scale detection specific regional patterns.

Language: Английский

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Kilometer-scale trends, variability, and extremes of the Adriatic far-future climate (RCP 8.5, 2070−2100)

Frontiers in Marine Science, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 11

Published: Jan. 30, 2024

Due to orography-driven dynamics at a (sub-)kilometer scale (e.g., the bora wind) and complex ocean bathymetry that includes numerous channels, depressions ridges, atmosphere-ocean within semi-enclosed Adriatic region is not well reproduced by available regional climate models. The Sea Coast (AdriSC) kilometer-scale model was thus specifically developed accurately assess hazards under both historical (1987-2017) far-future (2070-2100) conditions. In this study, we analyze impact of change on projected trends, variability extreme events. atmosphere, our results mostly follow already published literature: strong land-sea contrasts, increased droughts rainfall events, decreased wind speeds in coastal areas. ocean, constant rise surface intermediate temperatures associated with salinity decrease, except during summer when rises At bottom for circulation, exhibit contrasts. areas, temperature rises, decreases same rate than while changes current speed are negligible. deepest part Adriatic, negative trends result 2.5°C slower increases. Further, currents accelerate layers but decelerate bottom. These suggest reduction dense water formation northern an intensification shrinking southern cyclonic gyre, strengthening vertical stratification probably linked Adriatic-Ionian mass exchanges. Given potential these communities marine life, study highlights need increase ongoing modelling efforts aim implement policies adaptation plans better tailored local specific region.

Language: Английский

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