Prediction and projection of heatwaves

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 4(1), P. 36 - 50

Published: Dec. 13, 2022

Language: Английский

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Unveiling the dynamics of sequential extreme precipitation-heatwave compounds in China

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 7(1)

Published: March 11, 2024

Abstract Amidst the escalating impacts of global warming, occurrence and severity compound extreme weather events have risen significantly, presenting substantial threats to both lives property. Existing response strategies predominantly focus on individual events, often overlooking cumulative effects rising from their inherent complexity. To address this critical gap, we conducted a thorough examination sequential precipitation–heatwave (SEPHCE) in China 1975 2020, utilizing data 1929 meteorological stations. Our investigation revealed consistent rise frequency duration SEPHCE, with particularly notable surge since 1993. Furthermore, shorter interval disproportionately affected regions southwestern southeast coastal China. SEPHCE onset times exhibited advancement, endings were delayed, thereby intensifying overall trend. These findings underscore pressing need prioritize effective planning adaptation mitigate impact these event, while also addressing potential exacerbation inequality resulting climate change.

Language: Английский

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Local mechanisms for global daytime, nighttime, and compound heatwaves

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 6(1)

Published: May 15, 2023

Abstract Heatwaves impose serious impacts on ecosystems, human health, agriculture, and energy consumption. Previous studies have classified heatwaves into independent daytime, nighttime, compound daytime-nighttime types, examined the long-term changes in three types. However, underlying mechanisms associated with variations different heatwave types remain poorly understood. Here we present first investigation of local physical processes over global land during 1979–2020. The results show that occur frequently increasingly most regions worldwide. Nighttime exhibit stronger increases both frequency (the yearly number events) fraction ratio one type to total all types) than daytime heatwaves. Composite diagnostic analyses meteorological variables suggest are increased solar radiation under dry conditions reduced cloud cover humidity a clear sky. In contrast, nighttime typically accompanied by moist fraction, humidity, longwave at night. These synoptic for combined contribute Local divergences moisture fluxes responsible further revealed. Positive divergence anomalies seen areas heatwaves, while they mainly appear low latitudes Our research provides comprehensive understanding informing future risks impact assessments.

Language: Английский

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Research progresses and prospects of multi-sphere compound extremes from the Earth System perspective

Science China Earth Sciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 67(2), P. 343 - 374

Published: Jan. 4, 2024

Language: Английский

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Duration of exposure to compound daytime-nighttime high temperatures and changes in population exposure in China under global warming

Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 11(1)

Published: Aug. 22, 2024

Global warming has led to the enhancement of diurnal (daytime-nighttime) compound heat waves, which can severely affect population's physical health and productive life; this is particularly case for vulnerable populations that are more susceptible psychological physiological harm with future normalization heatwave scenarios. In study, we attributed changes in population exposure under high temperatures (HTs) extremely (EHTs) influence climatic (exposure duration) factors their combined determine relationship between duration populations. Diurnal HT EHT covered a land area 4,016,800 1,984,200 km2, respectively. The heat-exposed spread step-like all directions, centering on 24-h high-exposure strong gradient effect. prolonged shifted from Yellow-Huai-Huai Plain across geographical boundary south north middle lower reaches Yangtze River Plain. Meanwhile, average maximum value reached 186,800 93,100 person-h, values Zhengzhou, Chongqing, Wuhan, Chengdu, Beijing, other cities. Changes were dominated first by demographic then factors, dominance evident areas exposure. Under daytime-nighttime EHT, child older contribution rate 87.16% 87.43%, Therefore, suitable cooling measures should be proposed exposure, focusing mental children adults exposed EHT.

Language: Английский

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Interdecadal Variation of Springtime Compound Temperature‐Precipitation Extreme Events in China and Its Association With Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 130(2)

Published: Jan. 13, 2025

Abstract The concurrent occurrence of temperature and precipitation extremes, known as compound temperature‐precipitation extreme events (CTPEEs), leads to more pronounced consequences for human society ecosystems than when these extremes occur separately. However, such have not been sufficiently studied, especially during boreal spring. Spring is an important transition season, which the CTPEEs plays a pivotal role in plant growth revival terrestrial ecosystems. This study investigates spatio‐temporal variation characteristics spring China, including warm‐dry, warm‐wet, cold‐dry, cold‐wet combinations. most frequently, followed by cold‐dry events. frequency associated with warm (cold) shows marked interdecadal increase (decrease) around mid‐to‐late 1990s. It found that change primarily determined extremes. shift coincides phase transitions Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) Interdecadal Pacific (IPO). After 1990s, configuration positive AMO negative IPO excited atmospheric wave trains over mid‐high latitudes, causing high‐pressure anticyclonic anomalies East Asia. less cloudiness, allowing downward solar radiation, enhances surface warming contributes warm‐dry warm‐wet above observations are confirmed Pacemaker experiments. results this highlight significant contribution internal climate variability changes at regional scale.

Language: Английский

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Urbanization-Induced Increases in Heavy Precipitation are Magnified by Moist Heatwaves in an Urban Agglomeration of East China

Journal of Climate, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 36(2), P. 693 - 709

Published: Oct. 5, 2022

Abstract Heavy precipitation (HP) events can be preceded by moist heatwaves (HWs; i.e., hot and humid weather), both intensified urbanization. However, the effect of HWs on increasing urban HP remains unknown. Based statistical analyses daily weather observations ERA5 reanalysis data, we herein investigate urban-intensified dividing summer into NoHW- HW-preceded in Yangtze River delta (YRD) agglomeration China. During period 1961–2019, YRD has experienced more frequent, longer-lasting, stronger intense season (i.e., June–August), urbanization contributed to these increases (by 22.66%–37.50%). In contrast, effects are almost absent if remove from all events. Our results show that urbanization-induced associated with, magnified by, areas region. Moist conducive an unstable atmosphere stormy weather, they also enhance heat island intensity, driving over areas. Significance Statement The contribution heavy been widely reported previous studies. (hot extremes); however, it is unknown whether HP. We choose explore this question find contributes frequency, duration, maximum cumulative intensity season. signal not detectable other words, play a key role magnifying Given projected continue expanding occur with frequency future, water cycle merits further investigation.

Language: Английский

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Interactions between the summer urban heat islands and heat waves in Beijing during 2000–2018

Atmospheric Research, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 291, P. 106813 - 106813

Published: May 15, 2023

Language: Английский

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Radiation as the dominant cause of high-temperature extremes on the eastern Tibetan Plateau

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 18(7), P. 074007 - 074007

Published: May 23, 2023

Abstract Temperature extremes have been related to anomalies in large-scale circulation, but how these alter the surface energy balance is less clear. Here, we attributed high daytime and nighttime temperatures of eastern Tibetan Plateau (ETP) balance. We find that high-temperature are mainly caused by altered solar radiation, while ones controlled changes downwelling longwave radiation. These radiation largely cloud variations, which further associated with certain circulations modulate vertical air motion horizontal convergence. In addition, driven a high-pressure system, strengthened downward tends decrease snow albedo, then plays an important role reducing upward especially during winter for compounding warm events. The results summer generally similar also present significant differences terms contribution variations turbulent fluxes, advection cloud, hence need attention simulating extreme events ETP. Our work indicates importance attribute different temperature separately from perspective

Language: Английский

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Urbanization Intensifies Heavy Hourly Rainfall Preconditioned by Heatwaves

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 130(2)

Published: Jan. 16, 2025

Abstract Heatwave preconditioned‐heavy rainfall (HW_HR), a preconditioned compound event, can cause more damage than single heatwave or rainstorm. Both heatwaves and rainstorms be exacerbated by the presence of cities, but response their compounding to urbanization remains unclear especially at hourly scale. Here, we investigate spatial temporal responses HW_HR typical urban agglomeration, Pearl River Delta, using observations scenario‐based numerical simulations. Compared rural areas, show that in areas has higher probability occurrence mean intensity, its diurnal cycle frequency is narrower, peaking afternoon. The intensity effects most significant, with urbanization‐induced increase being five times non‐heatwave (noHW_HR). Our simulations support suggest changes are intense spatially heterogeneous relatively weak continuous noHW_HR. also preconditioning not only amplifies key variables alter atmospheric conditions provides pre‐storm unstable environment for urban‐induced warm‐dry surface trigger enhance convection. sub‐daily suggests preconditioning‐induced thermodynamic gradually decrease, whereas dynamic as event approaches. study highlights importance understanding on events, providing new insights into role preconditions water cycle.

Language: Английский

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